第五十五期人口學刊2017.12 出刊


本期目錄
Contents


本本期共刊登四篇文章,其中兩篇為研究論文,兩篇為研究紀要。第一篇研究論文〈研究經費、生命週期因素、與學術生產力――台灣物理學者的實證分析〉,作者為中國文化大學經濟學系吳慧瑛教授。吳教授討論博士生涯的生命週期階段,發現研究經費的增加比起年資對於學術生產力的影響較大。此篇論文對科研政策有深入討論,並提醒科技政策的規劃應注意研究研究經費的分配機制,以改善整體學術研究的產出。

第二篇研究論文〈北京城市新移民的空間流動與社會流動:「去」與「留」之間〉,作者為國立彰化師範大學地理學系宋郁玲副教授以及美國華盛頓大學地理學系陳金永教授。本文以中國社會為背景,經過田野調查與深度訪談57位受訪者,將城市新移民階層狀態分為 : 「邊緣專業」、「邊緣白領」、「邊緣知識」與「邊緣富裕」等四類。指出北京中產邊緣階層傾向以空間流動的方式來獲得向上流動的機會,但卻在都市發展的政策下,生活空間也逐步被壓縮,在「去」與「留」之間掙扎,頗令人回味再三。

第三篇研究紀要〈台灣原住民族死亡率暨生命表編撰研究〉,作者為真理大學財務與精算學系王信忠副教授、國立政治大學統計學系余清祥教授,以及國立政治大學應用數學系學生王子瑜。作者使用臺灣原住民基礎開放研究資料庫(Taiwan Indigenous Peoples Open Research Data, TIPD),以更嚴謹的方式編算原住民族生命表。發現原住民死亡率偏高,零歲平均餘命明顯低於臺灣平均值,說明臺灣原住民族的生活、居住、醫療、資源等政策仍有改善的空間,同時也提供政府在擬訂原住民政策及相關資源分配上之參考。

第四篇研究紀要〈人類壽命上限值探討――以臺灣為例〉,作者為劉士嘉博士後研究員以及東海大學統計學系林正祥教授。作者利用政府部門公佈的大量次級資料探討國人平均餘命的上限值。結果顯示台灣男、女平均餘命上限(壽命極限)大致為93歲及95歲,考量未來醫療技術的進展能夠讓餘命上限值加以提升,然而預期成長幅度也應不大。此研究結果對國人的「善終」規劃,有很重要的參考價值。

整體而言,以上四篇文章不僅討論臺灣的學術研究生產力、原住民族死亡率以及人類壽命上限值之議題,在空間上也擴展至中國,探討中國城市新移民之問題,兼具質化與量化之分析,以及理論與實證的研究,供各界了解人口學領域重要的相關課題,同時也深具一定的政策意涵與貢獻。人口學刊作為國內外人口學領域具代表性的學術期刊,期盼本刊能成為學術、政策與公共對話的重要平臺。

依科技部人社期刊評比之計算方式,《人口學刊》2015年至2016年平均退稿率為53%。下表為《人口學刊》2015年至2016年發行卷期之出版文章從接受投稿至確定刊登平均作業時間。

2015-2016年發行卷期之刊登文章從接受投稿至確定刊登平均作業時間
卷期 接受投稿至正式審查之週數 正式審查至作者收到第一次審查結果之週數 作者第一次回覆審查意見至確定刊登之週數
52期(2016年) 5.57 13.95 7.19
53期(2016年) 9.5 31.5 13
54期(2017年) 2.07 12.96 18.11
55期(2017年) 3.43 11.29 6.86

人口學刊將自54期起,啟用華藝Aspers線上投稿暨評閱系統,敬請投稿者將稿件投遞至:
https://aspers.airiti.com/aspers/webHome.aspx?jnliid=J0041 感謝您對本刊的支持與愛護,敬請舊雨新知繼續支持,惠賜大作。

研究論文

DOI : 10.6191/JPS.2017.55.01

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師資結構老化 ; 人力資本 ; 研究經費 ; 學術生產力 ;研究產出 ; aging faculty ; human capital ;research grants ; academic productivity ; research output
中文摘要
本文旨在探討研究經費、生命週期因素、與學術研究生產力的關係,以物理學為主要研究領域,研究對象包括任職於具物理學博士班的11所大學教師以及中央研究院物理所研究人員,共327位物理學者,平均每位學者約有7.1個年觀測值。學術生產力以5種指標衡量:未調整作者人數的SCI論文數(指標1)、未調整作者人數的核心期刊論文數(指標2)、列名通訊作者或第一作者的核心期刊論文數(指標3)、經調整作者人數的核心期刊論文數(指標4)、經調整作者人數的SCI論文數(指標5)。考慮到取得博士學位的年齡會影響日後學術高峰期出現的時間,本文以取得博士學位後至論文發表時的年資來衡量生命週期的階段。本文使用隨機效果Tobit模型估計,實證結果顯示年資與研究經費對學術生產力的影響呈現倒U型式的現象,主要出現在指標1與指標2。換言之,隨著年資或研究經費的增加,未調整作者人數的論文數,不管是一般期刊或核心期刊,會先上升然後再下降,且研究經費對生產力的影響,又比年資的影響來得顯著。控制研究經費與其他解釋變數之後,以指標1與指標2衡量的物理學者的學術生產力高峰約在取得博士學位後的19-20年間。
Abstract
This paper explores the life-cycle academic productivity among Taiwan's physicists, by taking into account the role of research grants. Our sample consists of 327 physicists from Academia Sinica and 11 universities with Ph.D. programs in physics. The academic productivity of each scholar is assessed yearly by the number of publications in 5 various measures. On average, there are 7.1 annual observations per scholar. The life-cycle phase is gauged by professional age, which is defined as years since receiving a Ph.D. degree. By employing the random-effects Tobit model, our empirical results show that both professional age and research grants exert a significant impact upon academic productivity. Research grants reveal an even stronger effect than professional age does, particularly in the number of SCI articles as well as in the number of core-journal articles. In terms of these two unadjusted author-number publication measures, life-cycle academic productivity rises and then falls as scholars age and/or research grants increase. Ceteris paribus, the academic productivity of Taiwan's physicists is found to peak at 19-20 years after the receipt of their Ph.D. degree.

DOI : 10.6191/JPS.2017.55.02

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空間流動 ; 社會流動 ; 邊緣中產階層 ; 城市新移民 ; 北京 ; spatial mobility ; social mobility ; marginal middle class ; new migrants ; Beijing
中文摘要
本文在探討中國城市新移民是否能透過空間流動而影響社會流動,進而成為未來的中產階層,達到中國「擴大中產階層」的社會發展目標。在戶籍制度仍具有深刻影響力的中國社會當中,城市新移民的空間流動與社會流動之間存在著複雜的關係,本文提出的問題是:影響中國城市新移民社會流動的因子是什麼?空間流動能否克服制度障礙成為積累資本形成社會流動的途徑?我們將城市新移民的特性分析並加以分類,透過田野調查與深度訪談57位受訪者,以疊圖與主題分析城市新移民中各個群體的空間流動與社會流動的關係。我們依據城市新移民的階層狀態分為:「邊緣專業」、「邊緣白領」、「邊緣知識」與「邊緣富裕」等四類。整體而言,在戶籍制度產生集體排除的狀態下,對戶籍制度有較多負面感受者,他們更傾向於透過空間流動來尋找社會階層向上流動的可能,如「邊緣專業」與「邊緣富裕」,文化資本則無法成為城市新移民社會流動的關鍵因素。反之,對戶籍制度逐漸漠視或者順從制度的壓力者,繼續透過移動累積資本的可能性較小,如「邊緣白領」、「邊緣知識」。他們雖然是中國「擴大中產階層」的對象,但生活空間卻在都市發展政策下被一步步逼退,考驗著「去」或「留」的抉擇。
Abstract
This paper investigates whether new migrants to Beijing have achieved upward social mobility to become the middle class through spatial mobility. Expanding the size of the middle class is one of China's development goals. With the household registration system still exerting a strong influence on Chinese society, there exists a complex relationship between spatial and social mobility among new migrants. This research asks two questions: What are the factors affecting the social mobility of new migrants to Beijing? Can spatial mobility overcome institutional obstacles on the path to social mobility? Our research focuses on analyzing the characteristics and grouping of new migrants through fieldwork and in-depth interviews of 57 respondents. Based on their social class status, we divide the new migrants into four groups: "marginal professionals," "marginal white-collar," "new college graduates," and "marginal new rich." The relationship between social and spatial mobility of the individual groups of new migrants are identified through overlapping their major features. Our findings show that among the four groups, the "marginal professionals" and "marginal new rich", who possess the most and the least cultural capital, respectively, have more opportunities to accumulate capital through spatial mobility and continue their movement in the future. The "new college graduates" also have plentiful cultural capital, but their experience in spatial mobility is all education-related. These moves cannot be turned into the capital to increase social mobility. For new migrants to Beijing, cultural capital cannot become the key driver of social mobility. The unique phenomenon of Beijing's marginal middle class also shows in their view of the hukou system. Because of the exclusion by the hukou system, groups having more negative views of the hukou system tend to search for the possibility of social mobility through spatial mobility. On the other hand, groups which are indifferent to the hukou system or succumb to the pressure of the hukou system are are less likely to accumulate capital through spatial mobility. Though they are candidates for the new middle class, their living space in the city has been increasingly reduced under the new urbanization policy. They face a difficult decision as to whether to stay, or leave Beijing.

DOI : 10.6191/JPS.2017.55.03

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原住民生命表 ; 小區域估計 ; 死亡率模型 ; 臺灣原住民基礎開放研究資料庫 ; 平均餘命 ; aboriginal life table ; small area estimation ; mortality models ; Taiwan Indigenous Peoples Open Research Data ; life expectancy
中文摘要
原住民族在許多國家均屬於弱勢族群,除了社經地位偏低,在教育、福利與醫療等資源分配也普遍存在不公平的現象,我國政府一直致力於消匿弱勢團體的劣勢,其中提升族群平等、尊重各民族多元文化等政策頗多進展,在國際間具有較為正面的形象。近年來因為整體經濟成長遲緩、國民薪資倒退、生育率下降、壽命延長等高齡化問題陸續顯現,國家財政日益拮据,可能影響原住民族的資源分配。有鑑於此,本研究以編算原住民族的生命表為目標,期望做為衡量原住民族的需求與資源分配參考,以及政府政策績效的客觀指標。本文採用臺灣原住民基礎開放研究資料庫(Taiwan Indigenous Peoples Open Research Data, TIPD),依據2013年3月-2016年4月合計三年的全體原住民及人口較多的阿美族、泰雅族、排灣族三族之婚姻、居住區域、教育別等死亡率資料,並考量小區域估計方法(王信忠等 2012)編算生命表,提供各界參考。研究發現,本文結合過去歷史資訊視為參考大母體的方法,搭配Whittaker比值、Partial Standard Mortality Ratio (PSMR)等修勻方法,可以取得較穩定的統計數值。另外,根據TIPD得出的原住民0歲平均餘命,仍明顯低於內政部公佈的結果,可能因為資料使用時間、編算方法不同,未來仍需持續追蹤、查核及檢討,確定原住民族資料品質及生命表編算結果的可靠度。
Abstract
Indigenous peoples are underprivileged groups in many countries, and usually have low socioeconomic status as well. Unfortunately, often there are not sufficient resources for education, welfare, and medical care to lead them to a higher socioeconomic class. Taiwan's government has been dedicated to improving the living environment and life quality of Taiwan's aborigines, with more public resources being allocated to the indigenous peoples. However, slow economic growth and rapid population aging further restrict the allocation of public resources. For example, Taiwan’s government has issued (or is planning) a lot of elderly-related social policies, including the New Labor Pension Act, National Pension System, and Long-term Care Insurance. We need to construct suitable measures, in addition to demographic statistics, to efficiently design public policies for the indigenous peoples. The mortality rates (and life expectancy) are good indicators for measuring life quality, and we will explore the mortality rates of Taiwanese aborigines in this study. We use data from the Taiwan Indigenous Peoples open research Data (TIPD) database maintained by the Council of Indigenous People, and focus on tribes with larger population sizes: Amis, Atayal, and Paiwan. Since the population size of Taiwanese aborigines is small, we consider graduation methods to smooth the age-specific mortality rates, including the Whittaker Ratio method, Partial Standard Mortality Ratio (PSMR), and stochastic models. We expect that the results of this study can serve as a reference for policy making for Taiwanese aborigines.

DOI : 10.6191/JPS.2017.55.04

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平均餘命 ; 生命表熵 ; 疾病去除 ; 平均餘命上限 ; life expectancy ; life table entropy ; elimination of causes of disease ; maximum life span
中文摘要
近日,學術期刊《Nature》之研究報告顯示,人類的壽命上限為115歲,能達到125歲的可能性微乎其微。人口學家和生物學家都在爭論,認為人類的最長壽命還會繼續延長。但是有研究學者指出,人類壽命在1990年代就已經達到最高峰。他們分析了人類死亡數據庫(Human Mortality Database)中40多個國家的人口資料,發現人類壽命幾乎在1990年代已達到高峰,多項科學及醫療技術的發展,都有助於延長人類壽命。不過也有專家對此項研究持不同意見,認為過去的科學家們也曾聲稱人類壽命的上限為65歲、85歲、105歲,後來這些斷言都被推翻。並質疑該研究沒有應用人口和統計數據來檢測相關假設的準確性,稱「這類研究對人們將會活多久沒有提供任何科學根據」。我國近20年來國民所得、生活及醫療水準均已臻先進國家水平,整體國民平均壽命2015年為80.2歲,惟近年來增長幅度有限,甚而在2013-2014年間有些微下降。本研究以臺灣生命表資料利用統計學隨機概念進行探討,就臺灣一、1953-2015年生命表變化;二、出生、中年及老年的平均餘命與生命表熵之和及三、疾病去除平均餘命獲得變動趨勢,分析探討平均餘命上限相關問題。研究結果顯示臺灣男、女平均餘命上限大致為93歲及95歲。
Abstract
Recently, a research paper in Nature claimed that the maximum human life span is 115 years old, with very little chance to attain 125 years of age. Although demographers and biologists are arguing that increases in human longevity continue, some researchers have pointed out that the human lifespan reached its peak in the 1990s, based on an analysis of demographic data of more than 40 countries in the Human Mortality Database, and attributed this to the progress of science and medical technology. However, others have pointed out that although scientists claimed that the upper limit of human life is 65, 85 or even 105 years in the past, all these assertions were later overturned. Critics of the study point out that it did not use demographic and statistical data to verify the accuracy of the relevant hypotheses, saying that "this kind of studies do not provide any scientific evidence for how long people would live." In Taiwan, the national income and living and medical standards have reached the level of developed country in the past two decades. Although the life expectancy in 2015 was 80.2 years old, the life expectancy growth rate has been limited recently. In 2013-2014, there was even a slight decline in life expectancy. This paper intends to use the statistical data on life expectancy in Taiwan by means of the idea of randomization in statistics to explore (1) trend of life table changes, 1953-2015, (2) the sum of life expectancy in birth, middle age and old age with life table entropy, and (3) trends of the gains of life expectancy by elimination of the causes of death to discuss related issues about the maximum life span. Our study reveals the maximum life span in Taiwan is about 93 and 95 years of age for males and females respectively.