第一期人口學刊1977.01 出刊



本「人口學刊」係國立台灣大學人口研究中心發行的學術雜誌,暫定為年刊。人口研究中心於民國六十五年八月正式成立於台灣大學,其主要任務有三:1. 連繫並改進校內有關人口的教學,2. 加強並鼓勵研究所際的人口問題的合作研究,3. 廣汎地索集有關人口研究的數字與資料。
台灣地區的成功的家庭計劃之推行及許多人口問題的研究,經獲政府機關的極力支持,與紐約人口局和農村復興聯合委員會的援助,其成果引起了各國的注目。可是,人口局已經結束其在台灣地區的活動,我們期望政府對人口問題的研究今後能夠給予更多的資助。
台灣大學擁有六個學院包括四十二個學系及四十四個研究所,其人口研究中心專家濟濟,可以做多方面的研究,例如:經濟、社會、心理、法律、農業、地理、衛生以及人類學等,且能做到跨科系的集體研究。過去台灣大學的不同研究所有不少人口問題的研究論文發表於各種學術刊物,如今中心已經成立將近週年,而發行「人口學刊」登載中心同仁的研究論文於其創刊號,可以說是中心最適時的表現。希望本學刊於不久將來能成為半年刊而後季刊,以不負眾望。
人口研究中心的刊物承人口局及農村復興聯合委員會的資助,特此誌謝。
國立台灣大學教務長
兼人口研究中心主任 魏火曜

本期目錄

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中文摘要
本省由於工業快速發展,而農業發展較落後的緣故,造成鄉村農業地區的人口規模地移往都市工業中心。這種水平的移動引起多方面的改變,其中最廣泛被提到的,即農場勞力的短缺。因此集約勞力經營無法像以往般地受到鼓勵。
本研究的主要目的在探討臺灣農業人口外移與複種作物制度之關係。文中首先指出本省農業人口外移趨勢:此一部份論及農業人口、農業勞力的外移量與外移率。第二部份說明遷移型態和作物指數之關係;本部份分三方面討論:(1)二次大戰後初期,農業人口較少外流且較穩定,尚未造成複種指數的下降;至一九六六年後,外移率開始促使複種指數下降。(2)觀察不同區域農業人口外移與複種指數的關係。複種指數較低地區具有吸收其他地區農業勞力之能力;反之,複種指數較高地區,農業勞力顯現外移情形。這種現象發生在工業化之前時期,但在高度工業化和都市化時期,此現象卻變得不規則。(3)在農家層次上,比較遷移型態和複種指數關係。通勤的遷移者,這種遷移型態和高的複種指數有關,亦即此種遷移者比其他遷移者(永久性遷移者及季節性遷移者)貢獻更多的勞力在農業經營上,或者可以說高複種指數作物經營的農家比其他農家需要更多家中遷移分子的部分勞力。另外在第三、四、五節分別討論遷移者的特性和職業的獲得,遷移者在複種作物經營上扮演的角色和貢獻,及遷移率與複種指數的趨勢。
Abstract
With rapid industrial developments and lagging agricultural developments in Taiwan, rural populations are migrating to urban and industrial centers in a large scale. These horizontal movements are creating changes in multiple aspects, in which agricultural labor shortage is a common issue. Therefore, labor-intensive operations can no longer be encouraged as before.
This study aims to discuss the relationship between agricultural emigration and multiple-crop farming in Taiwan. First, we point to agricultural emigration trends in Taiwan. This section touches upon agricultural population, as well as emigration quantity and ratio in agricultural labor. The second section describes the relationship between emigration pattern and crop index, which is further divided into three aspects. 1. After Second World War, agricultural population was stable with little emigration. After 1966, higher emigration led to falling multiple-crop index. 2. Observe the relationship between agricultural emigration and multiple-crop index in different regions. Regions with lower multiple-crop index are capable of attracting agricultural labors from other regions. On the other hand, agricultural emigration is more prominent in regions with higher multiple-crop index. This pattern happened before industrialization. However, with advanced industrialization and urbanization, this pattern becomes irregular. 3. Compare relationships between different emigration patterns and multiple-crop index in farming families. Commuting migrants are correlated to high multiple-crop index. These migrants contribute more labor to agricultural operations than others (permanent and seasonal migrants). In other words, farming families with higher multiple-crop index require more partial labor from migrants in family. The third, fourth, and fifth sections explore migrant attributes and occupations, migrant roles and contributions to multiple-crop farming, and trends in migration ratio and multiple-crop index.

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中文摘要
一般研究大陸匪區人口政策的著作,僅注意政策本身的討論,或者僅描述推行節育的方法;而對於西元1949年到1962年影響其人口政策形成的重大事件與毛匪之陰狠則欠缺描述與分析。
中共一切主要理論與作法,均源自馬克斯的論點,同時中共黨內任何決策均受信奉馬克斯思想的毛匪所主宰。馬克斯認為只有在資本主義社會,才有剩餘人口的問題,這是由於資本主義的政治及經濟制度之不良所造成的;而他認為在社會主義的國家是沒有人口過剩的問題,這便是他所謂的人口理論。西元1949年毛匪確認人多是從事建設的大好條件;即使再多上幾倍也有方法來解決;到了1950年代後期,當人們在談節育時又說了一些人只看到一個人有一張嘴,可是卻忘了人還有兩隻手,由此可見毛匪不認為人口過多是問題。
毛匪以為在政治及經濟制度上,徹底依據馬克斯的論點施行於中國大陸,便可解決一切問題。因此在1949~1957年開始推行清算、鬥爭、土改,一切商業農業收歸國有,並採取蘇聯的模式發展工業,使得農業減產與一般人民消費品之匱乏,而造成民怨以及共黨內部對毛匪之不滿。1956年末到1957年夏季,毛匪藉「百花齊放,百家爭鳴」表示願意接受批評來緩和壓力,許多知識份子紛紛表示以節育(人口學的方法)來解決經濟的問題。但最後漸失控制,毛匪遂下令停止,而開始整肅異己,許多受西方訓練的學者都難逃厄運。由於這次整肅使得著手推行的節育運動,突然在1958年夏季停止。接著在1958~1961年大力推行「大躍進」運動,以吸收大量過剩的人口從事苦力式的勞動。由於「大躍進」之失敗,致使中國大陸在1961~1962年成為大量糧食輸入地區;因此在1962年不得不恢復節育政策,這是當初一些挨整肅的知識份子所建議的。
Abstract
Publications and studies on population policies in China generally focus on policies or birth control methods. However, descriptions and analyses on key incidents and mean communist practices that influenced population policies from 1949 to 1962 are insufficient.
Main theories and practices in China come from Marxist ideas. Decisions in Chinese Communist Party are dominated by figures believe in Marxism. Karl Marx believes that surplus population issue only happens in capitalist societies, caused by problematic political and economic systems. In his theory, surplus population issue doesn’t happen in socialist countries. In 1949, Chinese communists decided that higher population would be helpful to infrastructure development, and there were always solutions even population multiplied by several times. When people talked about birth control in the late 1950s, Chinese communists countered that each person had one mouth to eat but two hands to work. In other words, they didn’t think surplus population was an issue.
Communists thought that all problems could be solved by thoroughly implementing Marxist theories in political and economic systems. From 1949 to 1957, it executed political struggles, land reforms, agricultural and business nationalization, and industrial development based on Soviet models. However, falling agricultural yields and consumer goods led to social unrests and complaints within Communist Party. From late 1956 to summer 1957, Communist Party claimed to welcome criticism. Many intellectuals proposed to solve economic issues with birth control (demographic methods). As the situation gradually got out of control, communists started to punish scholars with western training backgrounds. Birth control movement was suddenly terminated in summer 1958. Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1961 aimed to direct surplus population to hard labor. As Great Leap Forward failed, China became a major food importer from 1961 to 1962. Birth control policy proposed to punished intellectuals was forced to reinstate in 1962.

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中文摘要
人口遷移與社會經濟變遷的密切關係早就被社會及經濟學者所公認,但是很少人提供經濟研究以支持或否定此種假設。本研究試圖探討人口遷移與社會經濟變遷的關係。其具體目的為:一、了解以前的社會經濟變遷與人口遷移的關係;二、辨認社會經濟發展的程度與人口遷移的關係;三、探討同一時期之社會經濟變遷與人口遷移的關係。
這個研究設計與傳統所使用的方法不大一樣。我們採用三組自變數和二個層次的分析方法。第一組自變數代表人口遷移前十年間之社會經濟變遷情形;第二組變數代表人口遷移開始時之社會經濟程度;第三組變數則代表與人口遷移同一時期之社會經濟變遷。
為了了解社會經濟因素與人口遷移的一般關係,本研究採用多變數迴歸分析的方法。為了驗證人口遷移與社會經濟變遷相互影響的理論,則採用路徑分析的技巧。
本研究資料主要取自1950, 1960及1970年美國之人口普查報告書。
就一般而論,社會經濟變遷影響人口遷移,人口遷移也進而影響社會經濟變遷的理論得到本研究的支持。
Abstract
The close relationship between migrations and socioeconomic changes is a consensus among social researchers and economists. However, very few evidence-based studies are conducted to support or deny this hypothesis. This article aims to explore the relationship between migration and socioeconomic change. Objectives include: 1. Understand historical relationship between socioeconomic changes and migrations. 2. Identify the relationship between socioeconomic development level and migration. 3. Explore the relationship of socioeconomic change and migration in the same period.
This study is designed slightly different from traditional methods. We adopt three individual variables and two levels in this analysis. The first individual variable represents socioeconomic changes in the ten years before migration. The second variable represents socioeconomic status when migration starts. The third variable represents socioeconomic changes during migration.
To understand general relationship between socioeconomic factors and migration, the studies adopts multiple variable regression analysis. To verify the hypothesis that migration and socioeconomic change influence each other, we adopt path analysis.
Data mainly come from US population survey reports in 1950, 1960 and 1970.
In general, this study supports that socioeconomic change influences migration, and migration influences socioeconomic change.

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中文摘要
在開發中的國家,廣播仍被認為是最有效的傳播工具之一,廣泛用以影響其教育水準低落的廣大受播者。臺灣家庭計畫工作顯著之成效及其運用廣播推行家庭計畫之策略可作為其他開發中地區家庭計畫傳播工作解決人口快速增長之參考。
本研究是從兩個方向來探討臺灣家庭計畫廣播節目內容與運用方式之策略。首先從家庭計畫傳播的計畫者與設計者方面來分析影響廣播內容與媒介選擇的決策因素,同時並測得這些決策者對兩者的態度傾向。另一方面則從廣播文獻中做內容分析,以求得決策行為之型態與模式。其次再測定決策者對廣播內容形式與選擇媒介之態度及其所表現於實際傳播訊息之行為的關係。
由此研究發現,臺灣家庭計畫傳播的決策者大都能以理性及客觀之標準處理廣播訊息內容與方式,用以適應社會發展之需要:廣播之運用主要為接觸那些教育水準較低又無法接受其他傳播媒介的鄉村居民;媒介的選擇及訊息內容的設計係根據研究考評之發現及學者專家意見為主;廣播劇最為廣泛運用;訊息內容主題之演變是由「介紹節育方式為主」→「散佈家庭計畫一般消息為主」→「引起動機為主」→「改變社會規範為主」,此模式乃應社會實際需要而發展出來;同時訊息訴求方式均能適合於個人心理及社會情況之需求。本研究結果最後證實了兩個假設:(1)家庭計畫傳播決策者對家庭計畫廣播節目內容與形式之態度傾向將表現於其實際製作與設計之訊息內容。(2)決策者對家庭計畫傳播頻道功能之態度會影響其決定媒介之選擇。總之,決策者決策態度之傾向與其決策行為甚為一致。由此研究乃引出一種新的「態度與行為」間關係之假設,做為將來進一步研究之依據。
Abstract
In developing countries, radio is still regarded one of the most effective communication tools. It’s widely used to influence many undereducated listeners. Effective family planning in Taiwan uses radio programs as a communication channels. It can be a good reference to other developing countries to counter rapid growth in population with family planning.
The study explores family planning radio program contents and strategies from two aspects. It analyzes deciding factors behind radio contents and channels from perspectives of communication designers and planners. We also evaluate their orientations towards content and channel. On the other hand, it analyzes content in radio literature to understand decision-making patterns and models. We also evaluate the relationship between decision makers and communication practices.
The study finds out that decision makers in family planning communication mostly handle contents and channels with a reasonable and objective standard, in response to social development needs. Radio is mainly used to reach rural residents with lower education backgrounds without other communication media. Medium choice and contents are designed based on academic and professional advices. Radio theater is the most common format. Contents evolve from family planning introduction, general family planning news distribution, generating motivations, to changing social norms. This model is developed based on real social needs, and messages are suitable for personal mental status and social circumstances. The study verifies two hypotheses: 1. Family planning communication decision makers and their orientations towards ratio contents and formats influence the actual messages. 2. Family planning communication decision makers and their orientations towards channels influence the final media. In conclusion, orientations and decisions by decision makers are consistent. This new hypothesis on the relationship between orientation and action can be used for further studies.

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