臺灣的人口在過去四十多年來完成了西方近兩百年的人口轉型，呈現在人口年齡結構是連續巨大的變化。目前低於替換水準的生育率仍然在下降中，人口老化的問題將在未來一、二十年內突現出來。過去只重視生育率控制的人口政策，應將其重心移轉到年齡結構的問題上，特別是未來人口老化對臺灣社會經濟的衝擊。
本文以「二代人口模型」推估未來五十年內每位老人之平均子女數與平均就業子女數。我們預測65歲以上老人之就業子女數將由目前的2至3人，下降至2035年的1人以下；同時撫養父母的經濟負擔，估計也將上升至二倍以上。在這種迅速老化的情況下，如果沒有及早形成適當的政策與扶養制度，未及西元2000年老人的撫養問題將成為個人與社會的重大負擔。

Taiwan has completed the demographic transition from high birth rates and death rates to low birth rates and death rates during the past four decades. The country now is at a turning point in its population policy, and its central concern is beginning to shift from fertility and family planning to aging issues.
Presently, with only minimal social security system, health care, and counseling for the old, the younger generation has to provide for the bulk of caretaking and financial support for their parents. Based on intergenerational population projection, this paper finds that financial burden to support the old would increase rapidly for their offspring. By 2030, it would be a prevailing phenomenon that each retired parent would be supported by no more than one employed offspring, as compared to the current 2 to 3 employed children. If fertility continues to decline, the financial burden to the offspring would be much worse than what we project here.
However, attempts to devise substitutes to replace the family as the basic social and economic institution for supporting the old may not be workable in Taiwan. Policy study on financial arrangements to encourage retired parents to live with their offspring should be ranked as top priorities. In the meantime, economic policy to facilitate individual savings for retirement needs and pension plans should be encouraged.

人口成長（或衰退）不是人口變遷的唯一形式，週期性波動也經常是人口變遷的重要成分，尤其是在人口轉型的前期與後期，由於人口趨向停滯發展，週期波動愈益顯得為人口變遷的主要成分。人口的週期波動可能是外生性的，也可能是內生性的，本文檢討內生性的人口週期，說明此類人口週期之構成為兩代間的數量傳遞，其最大週長不可能超過兩代的間距。人口週期的週長越短則人口數量的變動越頻繁，振幅越大則變動越劇烈，均明顯不利於社會與經濟制度之維持穩定。本文又指出臺灣地區的繁殖率年齡分配自1950年以來迅速向平均繁殖年齡集中，在淨增殖率與平均代距不變的條件下擴大人口週期的幅度，使週期變動更發展為轉型末期的主要人口變遷。本文進一步提出一項出生率之分解，使用統計資料間接驗證人口週期的性質。雖然迄未能在出生率分解的等式中發展出繁殖率年齡分配的參數，以至於不能直接驗證週期幅度與繁殖率集中化趨勢間的函數關係，卻指出轉型期間的出生量峰型分佈之峰度可能是解決驗證問題的關鍵所在。

Given a distinction of endogenous and exogenous population cycles, this paper searches the ways of characterizing the ‘endogenous’ cycles with the dynamics of changing age composition. It is argued that while the size of parental cohort is related to the size of offspring cohort by the renewal process, fluctuations in size are correspondingly transmitted and averaged time after time. It is shown that as the population transition in Taiwan is approaching the final stage of completion, population cycles appear to becoming the principal component of the population change. Though the cycles tend to converge in the long-run, the compression in age pattern of maternity has nevertheless effected a trend to the contrary. A decomposition of the crude birth rate is introduced to capture the cycle component of population renewal.

近年來臺灣地區育齡婦女總生育率由民國64年的2.8人，降為民國73年的2.1人。促使婦女總生育率下降的因素是什麼？Kinsley Davis及Judith Blake於五十年代最先提出生育模式（Reproductive Model）的理論：婦女生育的下降係直接受生物與行為變項的影響，而社會、經濟、文化及環境等因素，則透過生物與行為因素，間接地影響婦女的生育。惟為了探討這些關係，得各項變項加以量化，常因此產生了一個高度複雜化的生育模式，實際研究上是相當地困難。故而一般學者與專家均著重於探討社會、經濟等因素對生育的影響。於七十年代末期，John Bongaarts針對Kinsley Davis及Judith Blake（1956）的生育模式，提出了一個相當完整與簡單的模式，以分析直接影響因素和生育高低間的關係。本文即嘗試運用Bongaarts所提的模式，來探討影響臺灣地區婦女生育率下降的直接影響因素，何者影響最大？影響程度如何？又在政策的推行與制訂上具有何種特殊的涵義及有何可參考之處？況且我國於民國74年公布實施優生保健法放寬施行人工流產條件，則該法的公布，對生育下降的影響又如何？亦可利用此次研究，瞭解法公布前婦女施行人工流產對生育力的影響，以建立起探討該法公布後影響力變化的依據。
本文運用行政院衛生署委託臺灣省家庭計畫研究所辦理的「72年及73年臺灣地區有偶婦女人工流產實施狀況調查計畫」所搜集的資料，以Bongaarts的理論，加以分析，評估四個最主要的直接影響因素──結婚比率、產後哺乳不孕期、使用避孕方法及施行人工流產，對婦女總生育率下降的影響情形。結果顯示，以Bongaarts模式估算出臺灣地區總生育率的估計值為1.96，較觀察值（即樣本的總生育率）2.03，低了0.07，其差異仍在Bongaarts的實證研究差異（0.36）範圍內，假設四個指數對總生育率的影響為一，對各指數取對數（log）值，可明顯地看出臺灣地區四個指數對總生育率的影響情形。顯示避孕指數對總生育率的下降影響最大，為47%。其次為結婚指數，其影響比例為41%。至於另兩個指數，人工流產指數與產後哺乳不孕指數，對總生育率下降的影響相當小，前者為11%，後者僅為1%。
以不同行政區域來看，其估計的總生育率：七大都市為2.01，縣轄市與鎮為1.96，鄉村為2.07，與其觀察值（1.77，2.02及2.31）比較，略有差異。不同地區別的四個指數的影響，均仍以避孕指數的影響最大，七大都市為45%，縣轄市及鎮為46%，鄉村為50%；其次為結婚指數，其影響比例：七大都市為44%，縣轄市與鎮及鄉村均為40%。人工流產指數以縣轄市與鎮的影響較大為13%，鄉村地區影響最小為9%。產後哺乳不孕指數的影響最為微小，對七大都市的總生育率完全無影響，另兩個區域的影響力也僅為1%。

In Taiwan the total fertility rate decreased from 2.83 per woman in 1975 to 2.05 in 1984. The decline appeared accelerated during the recent years. Promotion of family planning programs has been implemented since 1964. IUD, oral pill, condom and sterilization are the methods provided by the program. Induced abortion has only been legalized based on specified grounds in July 1984. To establish the base line data and to evaluate the impacts of induced abortion of fertility before and after promulgation of the Law, an induced abortion prevalence survey was conducted by the Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning in 1985 and sponsored by the Department of Health, the Executive Yuan. 10,516 samples of married women age 15-49 were covered in the survey. The sizable sample is significant to represent Taiwan area. Bongaarts’ model of proximate determinants of fertility is applied on the survey data to analyze the relationships among total fertility rate, total fecundity, and the indices of the proximate determinants on non-marriage, contraception, induced abortion, and lactation.

本文以加拿大安大略省漢密爾頓地區為實例，研討分析小地方之間死亡率之差異。因為官方的死亡資料不夠詳細，我們花了很多時間首先把個人的死亡登記依地點、性別、和年齡分類，然後把得到的死亡數與相關的人口配合而算出各地的死亡指數。我們也利用非線性的統計方法來解釋漢密爾頓地區內的死亡差異。
我們的主要發現如下：

• (1)小地方間之死亡率差異很大；
• (2)中位家庭所得能解釋此差異之百分之四十六；
• (3)其他被我們採用的社經因素，與中位家庭所得合用於多變數模式時，都顯得不重要。

本文報告的只是初步的結果。為促使小地方死亡差異研究的加強，本文最後提出一些實際的意見供同行的學者參考。

This paper deals with the problems of measuring and explaining local mortality variation, based on a case study of the Hamilton region in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Due to lack of detailed official data, the local mortality pattern is established after we have spent much time in recording information directly from individual death registrations and in matching the number of deaths by age and sex with the relevant at-risk population for each of the 96 census tracts in the Hamilton region. To explain local mortality variation by socioeconomic variables, we use the logit model and the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation method.
We find that local mortality variation is substantial in our study area; that median family income can explain nearly half of the mortality variation among the census tracts; and that other socioeconomic variables (e.g. widowhood and divorcehood), which appear to be significant variables of mortality variation in bivariate and non-spatial analyses, turn out to be insignificant in our multivariate analysis using the logit model.
Our results are by no means definitive. To help promote further research on local mortality variation, we conclude our paper by providing what we hope to be helpful and practical suggestions.

This paper presents new estimates of infant mortality levels, patterns, and differentials from Papua New Guinea through the application of direct and indirect techniques. The estimates are derived for data collected between November, 1979 and March, 1980 on fertility, mortality (infant and child), and contraception. The results indicate that infant mortality has declined in all parts of the country in the past 15 years. The results also reveal a slightly lower mortality for female infants than male infants. Furthermore, we observed the existence of moderate rural-urban infant mortality differential and substantial regional differences in the infant mortality levels.

This study examined mortality differentials by marital status in 11 low-mortality countries. The results show that, in general, unmarried populations have a higher mortality rate than that of married population. A more detailed analysis indicates that each country has its distinctive marital mortality features which are associated with cultural regions (East and West) but are not related to developmental factors. When marital mortality patterns of the East and the West are compared, it demonstrates that mortality rates of never-married Asian women are strikingly higher than that of their Western counterparts. This phenomenon has persisted during the last two decades. Two possible cultural interpretations are suggested: differential family support theses versus differential marital selection.

本研究在探討11個低死亡國家的婚姻別死亡型態。根據1980年聯合國的資料顯示，未婚者（包括單身及喪偶者）之死亡率均高於已婚者，經由進一步分析顯示東西方文化區域之婚姻別死亡型態有顯著差異，而發展因素卻未造成顯著影響。東西方的差異主要存在於東方單身人口（尤其是單身女性）的偏高死亡率，此偏高現象在近二十年來有降低的趨勢，然而其差距仍十分明顯。以上結果基本上支持了「家庭保護功能」說，然而造成文化區域差異之原因屬家庭保護功能之差異亦或婚姻選擇力之差異尚待進一步探討。

This study focuses on the determinants of migrant-nonmigrant fertility differentials in Taiwan with particular attention to rural-to-urban migrants. A socioeconomic model is developed in which the fertility determinants are classified into four broad categories: age characteristics, migration status, background characteristics, and current characteristics. The model is evaluated by analyzing data from a large and representative sample of Taiwanese wives of childbearing age in 1980 through the use of multiple regression and multiple classification analysis. The fertility of migrants moving from rural to urban area lie in between that of nonmigrants at the place of origin and destination. After adjustment for age or marriage duration and education, the differentials become smaller but still exist. However, the differentials are negligible after further adjustment for current socioeconomic characteristics. The statistical evidence has shown that migration is weakening extended families and urban environmental influences seem to produce anti-natal values regarding greater involvement in outside activities, greater exposure to mass media, lower son preference, and greater aspirations for children’s education for the migrants. These factors explain the fertility differential between urban in-migrants and rural natives of similar demographic and educational backgrounds. Perceptions of relative costs of goods and children might also be relevant, but no data on these were written in the survey. The fertility of city in-migrants of rural origin and that of urban natives ends up about the same, because anti-natal effect of lower male preference and less common importance of a male heir among migrants offset the anti-natal effect of greater exposure to mass media among urban natives on fertility.

本論文主要研討臺灣地區遷移者與非遷移者生育力差異之決定因素，尤其著重於由鄉村遷入都市者。所建立之社會經濟模式涉及地區特性、移動況狀、背景特性，以及現有特性等四組因素。此模式藉複迴歸分類分析法，並配合足以代表全島主要育齡婦女大樣本調查資料加以分析。　　就鄉鎮往都市之遷移者而言，其平均希望、期望及實際的生育力係介於遷出地與遷入地非遷移者之間。此差異經控制妻之年齡或結婚期間以及夫妻之教育程度後，雖有縮少但仍舊存在。不過，進一步調整現有社經因素後，其生育力之差異已微不足道。遷移是導致傳統家戶結構改變的主因之一，同時都市環境的影響似可對移動者增進戶外活動，對大眾傳播接觸頻度、改變重男輕女的態度、和重視子女教育，藉以沖淡生育價值觀念。此等因素足以解釋遷入都市者生育力比鄉鎮非遷移者低的原因。當然，遷居都市後，孩子對一般物品相對價格對移動者感受上的提高可能也有關係，但沒有實際資料可考驗此假說。至於與都市非移動者生育力相似，主要是由於移入都市者對重男輕女及對男嗣重要性態度改變幅度超過都市非移動者。此等因素所產生抗生育價值的效果抵銷都市非移動者，因多接觸大眾傳播所產生對生育價值抑制的效果。

本研究的對象是一項民國六十六年移入高雄市人口的抽樣調查資料，其主要目的在結合個別和脈絡變數，以便研究移民的職業成就，本文分析的理論基礎有地位取得理論和資訊來源假設。應用布勞與鄧肯的基本模式，本文發現移民本身的教育程度為決定移民本人職業成就的最重要因素。此外，本研究亦發現移民的親友協助只對來自鄉村移民的職業成就有不好的影響，其他變數對移民個人的職業成就沒有任何影響。

The distribution pattern of South Africa’s heterogeneous population has historically been shaped not only by socio-economic forces but very markedly by political ones. Where members of the different population groups live － mainly Asians, Blacks, Coloureds and Whites － has, for many years to greater or lesser extent been determined by laws promulgated by consecutive White governments. Despite the effect of these restrictive measures on macro- and micro-spatial patterns, economic and political realities have recently brought adaptive changes in government policy with concomitant migration responses. Though these changes attract greater attention, significant evolutionary migratory movements are simultaneously taking place. In this paper a largely descriptive model of adaptive migration in South African society is presented. In explaining the model and to draw tentative conclusions the paper addresses three recent movements, the first two stemming from policy changes and the other evolutionary in nature.
The first movement, containing macro- and micro-elements pertains to Blacks. It follows in the wake of the acknowledgement that restrictive policies have failed to curb Black urbanization in “White” areas despite the establishment since 1960 of some 100 new towns in the homelands. As Blacks are still the least urbanized group in South Africa, have numerical superiority, as well as the highest rate of population growth of the four groups, their potential for urbanization is the greatest. These realities have caused the government to abolish influx control. Free movement is now possible but the already overpopulated Black townships adjacent to “White” cities cannot accommodate large numbers of in-coming people. Furthermore the Group Areas Act, which determines the place where population groups may reside is still in force, effectively closing “White” urban centres to Blacks－however the first signs of a breakdown of this act are noticeable. Normative policies facilitating societal change are obviously required.
The second movement, also of a macro-nature and relating to Indians, is very recent. Until the beginning of 1987 Indians, the major Asian group, were barred from residing in the Orange Free State. Since the scrapping of these restrictive measures they have been quick to respond and, though numbers are still small, Indians have moved into this province necessitating land allocation to them albeit subject to the Group Act.
The third movement pertains to elderly Whites in Pretoria. It is illustrative of evolutionary micro-migration in urban areas and as such reflects changes in life-cycle in relation to socio-economic status. It is used as an indicator of possible intra-urban movements in a normalised future South African society.