第十二期人口學刊1989.06 出刊


本期目錄

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中文摘要
對中國大陸的城鎮人口數量及城鎮化水平的高低問題,中外學者一向都有不同的看法,引起了對這一問題的混淆。其主要原因是大陸的城鎮及其相關的人口資料,缺乏標準的及固定的定義。本文運用了大量的大陸的一手資料,說明了城鎮及城鎮人口的定義及其相互關係,闡述了大陸的幾種主要城鎮人口類型及其特徵,並分析了為何使用不同類型的人口資料,會得到不同的城鎮化水平。本文並提出了一套較完整的大陸城鎮人口資料,用之可以較確切地探討大陸的城市化水平。
1979年後,大陸城鎮的行政體制起了巨大的變化,直接地影響到城鎮人口的統計。許多學者常用「城鎮總人口」來作為衡量大陸城鎮化的指標;如用此一指標,則大陸在1984年底,有31.9% 的人口是城鎮人口。本文認為這一數字過分高估了大陸的城鎮化水平,因數字內含有大量農業人口。吾人建議應使用「城鎮非農業人口」來作為衡量城鎮化的標準。如用此一標準,則大陸在1984年底的城鎮化水平,僅為15.7%。
Abstract
There has been much confusion among Western and Chinese scholars concerning the actual size and the level of urbanization in mainland China due to the lack of standardized and well-defined terms for the urban settlements and urban population on the mainland. This paper clarifies the relationship between geographic units and demographic data, identifies the major types of urban population and their characteristics, explains the reasons for the differing levels of urbanization revealed in various data sources, and presents a comprehensive data series on mainland China’s urbanization that best approximates reality.
Considerable attention is directed to the post-1979 urban administrative changes that have dramatically enlarged the boundaries of many cities and towns and greatly affected the sizes of their populations. A commonly used indicator of mainland China’s urbanization level is the aggregate population of the officially designated cities and towns. If this indicator is used, then mainland China’s population was 31.9 percent urban in 1984. It is argued that this indicator is inappropriate as it inflates the size of the urban population. A more realistic measure of urbanization is promoted, which excludes the agricultural population of cities and towns and shows that mainland China was merely 15.7 percent urban in 1984.

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中文摘要
本研究採用臺灣五大都市643個抽樣戶所有戶內籍在或人在的成員3,363人做為分析單位。主要目的欲探索個人的人口特質變項對遷移登記正確性的影響。人口變項有與戶長關係、性別、年齡、婚姻、教育,與職業。而遷移登記正確性則以是否辦理遷入登記、有無籍在人不在,及有無人在籍不在代表之。分析方法上,先使用區辨分析找出具顯著區辨遷移登記正確與否的人口變項;繼之使用對數線型模型,來觀察三個最具顯著區辨力的人口變項所估計的遷移登記正確與否之次數及比值。研究發現影響15歲以下者遷移登記正確性的主要變數是與戶長關係及年齡,非戶長核心家庭成員或學齡前兒童均呈顯較不正確的遷移登記。對15歲以上者,與戶長關係及教育較能顯著地區辨是否辦理遷入登記及有無人在籍不在;非核心家庭成長員及大專以上者有較多不辦理遷入登記及人在籍不在的現象。而最能顯著區辨籍在人不在的變項是婚姻,未婚者有籍在人不在的狀況竟高達已婚者之十倍。本文建議對上述具有較不正確遷移登記的人口特質者,當加強其戶口查核工作。
Abstract
The units of analysis in this research are 3,363 persons of registration in or residence in 643 households of five big cities in Taiwan. The main aim is to explore the effects of demographic variables on accuracy of migration registration. Demographic variables are the relationship with head of household, sex, age, marital status, education, and occupation. The accuracy of migration registration are indicated by yes/no move-in registration, yes/no registration without residence in, yes/no residence in without registration. Using discriminant analysis, we try to find out the demographic variables which can discriminate the accuracy of migration registration the most significantly. Then we use log-linear model to estimate the frequencies of yes/no accurate migration registration and their odds with three most significant discriminant variables. We found that the most significant discriminant variables discriminating the accuracy of migration registration for persons under age 15 are the relationship with head of household and age. Persons who are not members of nuclear family of the head of household or age under 6 have higher probability of inaccuracy of migration registration.
For those persons age 15 and above, the relationship with head of household and education can discriminate yes/no mov-in registration and yes/no residence in without registration. Those persons who are not the members of nuclear family of head of household and college graduates have higher probability not registering for their residence. However the most significant discriminant variables to discriminate yes/no registration in without residence in this household is marital status; the single has 10 times of probability of registration inaccuracy as the married. Finally, this research suggests that all the persons with demographic characteristics which have higher probability of inaccuracy of migration registration need to be checked more often.

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中文摘要
本研究目的在於探討戶籍登記之婚姻狀況與民眾自述的婚姻狀況具有何種程度的差異及其差異所代表的意義。根據臺北地區750位登記不同婚姻況狀之中老年社區民眾訪視結果發現自述婚姻不符者達87位,其中登記為已婚及喪偶者之自述狀況幾乎完全吻合。然而登記為未婚及離婚者卻有1/3自述婚姻不符,且大部分以「已婚」為其回答。根據居住狀況的探討則發現大部分不符者之居住狀況符合其「自述」婚姻狀況,出現了法定/實質婚姻差異之現象,而僅少數登記離婚自述喪偶者(尤其以女性為多),其實際生活亦未有配偶出現,此現象則可能為避免社會壓力而產生之「自述偏差」行為。
Abstract
This paper assessed the difference between “registered” and “self-reported” marital status. 750 Taipei residents were selected and interviewed. The results showed that 87 of them reported a marital status differing from their registered marital status. The most of the unmatched cases occurred among those registered “single” and “divorced” and most of them reported “married”. The living arrangement conditions of those unmatched cases indicated that discrepancies are due to “de jural/de facto” differences. However, a number of registered divorced but reported widowed women cases lived without spouses and were suspected to present a “report bias” problem.

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Abstract
This paper examines two competing perspectives in demographic transition theory and uses Taiwan as the case for analysis. Five KAP surveys of Taiwanese women`s fertility behavior from 1965 to 1980 are adopted in this analysis. Both cross-sectional and pooled-time series analyses are presented to determine the impact of these two perspectives in the process of Taiwanese fertility transition. Findings suggest that both innovation-diffusion and adjustment models were important in explaining this fertility transition. Innovation-diffusion seemed to play a more important role in the early years whereas adjustment showed increasingly significant influences toward the end of the period.
中文摘要
本文的主要目的在探究擴散模型與調適模型,解釋臺灣生育轉型過程中各階段變化的能力。文中所使用的,是臺灣省家庭計畫研究所的KAP資料,並以此分析1964年至1980年間臺灣生育率下降的決定因素,以評估上述兩個模型的解釋能力。
經由橫剖面及時間序列的分析,計有以下幾點發現:
  • 1.證實需求──擴散模型在臺灣的生育轉型中,扮演非常重要的角色,即生育控制行為是由都會中心擴散到外圍鄉村地區。但在另一方面卻發現一無法確定的矛盾現象,即實施已久的家庭計畫與限制生育行為之間並無直接關係。
  • 2.調適模型中的自變項,諸如丈夫的教育程度及職業與消費性家庭設備指數等,對於家庭規模均有重要的影響。
  • 3.此外,對於臺灣生育轉型行為的解釋,以調適模型的影響較顯著。

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Abstract
A great number of Taiwan’s students study in the United States every year, comprising the highest proportion in the total number of foreign students in the United States. But no comprehensive study on the migration process of these students has been done. The present study attempts to make a broad and comprehensive analysis of the migration processes, problems, and adjustments of these students both through examining secondary statistical data and literature, as well as through interviewing these students’ family members and close friends in Taiwan. The study covers the demographic characteristics of students from Taiwan in the United States, and their specific migration process: (1) the formation of motivation for studying abroad, (2) working and living experiences, problems and adjustments, (3) the application for permanent residence and citizenship, (4) marriage, family and general socioeconomic situations, and (5) interaction with family and society of origin. In carrying out the analysis for each migration process listed above, not only the similarities but also the differentials are emphasized. Differentials are analyzed by age, sex, year of departure, degrees held before leaving Taiwan, current degrees, fields of study, occupations, income levels, and parents’ birth places. The different migration processes, problems and adjustments are each affected by different factors. In the final part of the study, suggestions for policy-making and improvement of study programs have also been made.
中文摘要
鑑於當前每年自臺灣留學美國學生人數眾多,佔臺灣全部留學生及全美國外國學生的最重要地位,但有關留美學生移動過程作成較完整性的研究則闕如。本研究乃針對此種情勢經由檢視次級統計資料、文獻及由調查訪問四百餘位留美學生在臺家屬及親友,對樣本留美學生的移動過程、問題及調適作較廣泛性及較完整性的探討。本文為全部研究報告的摘要部分。
本研究的內容先由總體觀點分析留美學生的人口性質及變遷,而後就其移動過程細分成下列諸階段或層面,(1)出國留學動機的形成及經過,(2)留美學生在美國工作謀生及居住的過程,(3)居留權的取得與歸化美國籍的過程、問題與適應,(4)婚姻、家庭及一般生活的過程、問題與適應,(5)留美學生與臺母家庭及母國社會的互動與往來。
在進行上列每一移動階段或層面的分析時,既注意留美學生之間的共同性,也注意其間的差異性。個別移動差異乃依其在性別、年齡、出國時間、出國時的學位、目前的學位、主修科目、職業、收入水準及籍貫等個別條件之不同而加以分析。結果發現在不同的留學階段或層面上,由於部分個別條件之不同而有顯著的不同移動過程、問題或適應。
本研究於最後參照若干重要研究結論,提出若干政策上及研究改進上的建議。

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Abstract
This paper is an effort to pursue the question - if migrants are selective, are their niches in industrial and occupational structures different from those of nonmigrants? In addition to the discussion of the role of migrants in supplying manpower to the secondary and tertiary sectors, two other questions are interested in this paper. One is whether migrants are more likely to take jobs with advanced technology than nonmigrants. The other is whether migrants are more responsive than nonmigrants to new industries?
Evidence presented in this paper indicates that there was a significant technological improvement in Taiwan in the period 1980-1985. Meanwhile, industrial and occupational structures have transformed gradually. The structural changes became a pull factor to migrants. Migrants were thus different from nonmigrants. They were more likely to take jobs with advanced technology and more responsive to shift in industrial structure.
中文摘要
本文所要探討的主題是 ─ 假如遷徙者呈正性選擇,遷徙者在行職業結構中所佔的位置是否不同於非遷徙者?更確切而言,本文除了探討遷徙者能適時供給次級及三級行業所需人力的問題外,還包含兩個特殊的目標。一個是探討遷徙者從事於需要進步科技之職業的比例是否高於非遷徙者?其次是探討遷徙者對行業結構轉變之反應是否快於非遷徙者?透過這二種機能,遷徙者能有助於臺灣地區行職業結構之轉型。
本文係利用1980至1985年行政院主計處所舉辦之勞動力調查的遷徙資料進行分析。結果顯示在該期間,臺灣地區的生產技術是有顯著的改善,行職業結構也在緩慢轉型中。結構上的改變形成對遷徙者的一種吸力。被吸引的遷徙者是不同於非遷徙者。他們較多從事於需要進步科技的職業,對於行業結構改變的反應也快於非遷徙者。

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Abstract
Data from a sample of currently married women aged 15-49 years in rural Sierra Leone during a fertility and family planning survey, are used to investigate the influence of individual and environmental factors on infant and child mortality in Sierra Leone.
The method of multivariate regression analysis was performed to distinguish the effects of these variables. Higher birth orders, male births and low family income were associated with high mortality. Duration of breastfeeding, maternal education and larger rural places showed negative effects on mortality. Although the variables, piped water and health center/dispensary services were not significant, they exhibited the expected negative influence on mortality. Recommendations for reducing mortality are suggested.
中文摘要
本研究利用對獅子山國15~49歲已婚鄉村婦女進行生育與家庭計畫調查所得之資料,分析個人與環境對獅子山國嬰幼兒死亡的影響。
本研究採多變項迴歸分析,結果發現:胎次高、男性、以及出生於低收入家庭的嬰幼兒較容易死亡,而母奶哺餵時間長、母親教育程度高、以及居住在人口較多地方的嬰幼兒則比較不容易死亡。本研究亦發現自來水設施與醫療保健服務對嬰幼兒死亡有預期的影響,雖然該影響在統計檢定上未達顯著水準。最後本文根據研究發現提出一些建議。

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中文摘要
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Abstract
The distribution pattern of South Africa’s heterogeneous population has historically been shaped not only by socio-economic forces but very markedly by political ones. Where members of the different population groups live - mainly Asians, Blacks, Coloureds and Whites - has, for many years to greater or lesser extent been determined by laws promulgated by consecutive White governments. Despite the effect of these restrictive measures on macro- and micro-spatial patterns, economic and political realities have recently brought adaptive changes in government policy with concomitant migration responses. Though these changes attract greater attention, significant evolutionary migratory movements are simultaneously taking place. In this paper a largely descriptive model of adaptive migration in South African society is presented. In explaining the model and to draw tentative conclusions the paper addresses three recent movements, the first two stemming from policy changes and the other evolutionary in nature.
The first movement, containing macro- and micro-elements pertains to Blacks. It follows in the wake of the acknowledgement that restrictive policies have failed to curb Black urbanization in “White” areas despite the establishment since 1960 of some 100 new towns in the homelands. As Blacks are still the least urbanized group in South Africa, have numerical superiority, as well as the highest rate of population growth of the four groups, their potential for urbanization is the greatest. These realities have caused the government to abolish influx control. Free movement is now possible but the already overpopulated Black townships adjacent to “White” cities cannot accommodate large numbers of in-coming people. Furthermore the Group Areas Act, which determines the place where population groups may reside is still in force, effectively closing “White” urban centres to Blacks-however the first signs of a breakdown of this act are noticeable. Normative policies facilitating societal change are obviously required.
The second movement, also of a macro-nature and relating to Indians, is very recent. Until the beginning of 1987 Indians, the major Asian group, were barred from residing in the Orange Free State. Since the scrapping of these restrictive measures they have been quick to respond and, though numbers are still small, Indians have moved into this province necessitating land allocation to them albeit subject to the Group Act.
The third movement pertains to elderly Whites in Pretoria. It is illustrative of evolutionary micro-migration in urban areas and as such reflects changes in life-cycle in relation to socio-economic status. It is used as an indicator of possible intra-urban movements in a normalised future South African society.

書評

1. Fertility in India: An Econometric Analysis of a Metropolis,
by S. C. Gulati. Sage Publications, New Delhi, 1988. 203 pp. ISBN: 0-8039-9562-8(USA), 81-7036-099-4(India)
- Paul K. C. Liu

2. Fertility and Mortality: Theory, Methodology and Empirical Issues,
edited by K. Mahadevan, with P. J. Reddy and D. A. Naidu. Sage Publications, New Delhi, Beverly Hills, London, 1986. 351 pp.
- Jow-Ching Tu

3. Social Development, Cultural Change and Fertility Decline: A Study of Fertility Change in Kerala,
by K. Mahadevan and M. Sumangala. Sage Publications, New Delhi, 1987. 190 pp.
- Lan-Hung Chiang

4. Infant Mortality in India: Differentials and Determinants,
edited by Jain A. K. and Visaria P. Sage Publications, New Delhi, 1988.
- Chien-Jen Chen