No. 12, Journal of Population StudiesPublished: 1989.06


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Abstract
There has been much confusion among Western and Chinese scholars concerning the actual size and the level of urbanization in mainland China due to the lack of standardized and well-defined terms for the urban settlements and urban population on the mainland. This paper clarifies the relationship between geographic units and demographic data, identifies the major types of urban population and their characteristics, explains the reasons for the differing levels of urbanization revealed in various data sources, and presents a comprehensive data series on mainland China’s urbanization that best approximates reality.
Considerable attention is directed to the post-1979 urban administrative changes that have dramatically enlarged the boundaries of many cities and towns and greatly affected the sizes of their populations. A commonly used indicator of mainland China’s urbanization level is the aggregate population of the officially designated cities and towns. If this indicator is used, then mainland China’s population was 31.9 percent urban in 1984. It is argued that this indicator is inappropriate as it inflates the size of the urban population. A more realistic measure of urbanization is promoted, which excludes the agricultural population of cities and towns and shows that mainland China was merely 15.7 percent urban in 1984.

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The units of analysis in this research are 3,363 persons of registration in or residence in 643 households of five big cities in Taiwan. The main aim is to explore the effects of demographic variables on accuracy of migration registration. Demographic variables are the relationship with head of household, sex, age, marital status, education, and occupation. The accuracy of migration registration are indicated by yes/no move-in registration, yes/no registration without residence in, yes/no residence in without registration. Using discriminant analysis, we try to find out the demographic variables which can discriminate the accuracy of migration registration the most significantly. Then we use log-linear model to estimate the frequencies of yes/no accurate migration registration and their odds with three most significant discriminant variables. We found that the most significant discriminant variables discriminating the accuracy of migration registration for persons under age 15 are the relationship with head of household and age. Persons who are not members of nuclear family of the head of household or age under 6 have higher probability of inaccuracy of migration registration.
For those persons age 15 and above, the relationship with head of household and education can discriminate yes/no mov-in registration and yes/no residence in without registration. Those persons who are not the members of nuclear family of head of household and college graduates have higher probability not registering for their residence. However the most significant discriminant variables to discriminate yes/no registration in without residence in this household is marital status; the single has 10 times of probability of registration inaccuracy as the married. Finally, this research suggests that all the persons with demographic characteristics which have higher probability of inaccuracy of migration registration need to be checked more often.

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This paper assessed the difference between “registered” and “self-reported” marital status. 750 Taipei residents were selected and interviewed. The results showed that 87 of them reported a marital status differing from their registered marital status. The most of the unmatched cases occurred among those registered “single” and “divorced” and most of them reported “married”. The living arrangement conditions of those unmatched cases indicated that discrepancies are due to “de jural/de facto” differences. However, a number of registered divorced but reported widowed women cases lived without spouses and were suspected to present a “report bias” problem.

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This paper examines two competing perspectives in demographic transition theory and uses Taiwan as the case for analysis. Five KAP surveys of Taiwanese women`s fertility behavior from 1965 to 1980 are adopted in this analysis. Both cross-sectional and pooled-time series analyses are presented to determine the impact of these two perspectives in the process of Taiwanese fertility transition. Findings suggest that both innovation-diffusion and adjustment models were important in explaining this fertility transition. Innovation-diffusion seemed to play a more important role in the early years whereas adjustment showed increasingly significant influences toward the end of the period.

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A great number of Taiwan’s students study in the United States every year, comprising the highest proportion in the total number of foreign students in the United States. But no comprehensive study on the migration process of these students has been done. The present study attempts to make a broad and comprehensive analysis of the migration processes, problems, and adjustments of these students both through examining secondary statistical data and literature, as well as through interviewing these students’ family members and close friends in Taiwan. The study covers the demographic characteristics of students from Taiwan in the United States, and their specific migration process: (1) the formation of motivation for studying abroad, (2) working and living experiences, problems and adjustments, (3) the application for permanent residence and citizenship, (4) marriage, family and general socioeconomic situations, and (5) interaction with family and society of origin. In carrying out the analysis for each migration process listed above, not only the similarities but also the differentials are emphasized. Differentials are analyzed by age, sex, year of departure, degrees held before leaving Taiwan, current degrees, fields of study, occupations, income levels, and parents’ birth places. The different migration processes, problems and adjustments are each affected by different factors. In the final part of the study, suggestions for policy-making and improvement of study programs have also been made.

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This paper is an effort to pursue the question - if migrants are selective, are their niches in industrial and occupational structures different from those of nonmigrants? In addition to the discussion of the role of migrants in supplying manpower to the secondary and tertiary sectors, two other questions are interested in this paper. One is whether migrants are more likely to take jobs with advanced technology than nonmigrants. The other is whether migrants are more responsive than nonmigrants to new industries?
Evidence presented in this paper indicates that there was a significant technological improvement in Taiwan in the period 1980-1985. Meanwhile, industrial and occupational structures have transformed gradually. The structural changes became a pull factor to migrants. Migrants were thus different from nonmigrants. They were more likely to take jobs with advanced technology and more responsive to shift in industrial structure.

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Data from a sample of currently married women aged 15-49 years in rural Sierra Leone during a fertility and family planning survey, are used to investigate the influence of individual and environmental factors on infant and child mortality in Sierra Leone.
The method of multivariate regression analysis was performed to distinguish the effects of these variables. Higher birth orders, male births and low family income were associated with high mortality. Duration of breastfeeding, maternal education and larger rural places showed negative effects on mortality. Although the variables, piped water and health center/dispensary services were not significant, they exhibited the expected negative influence on mortality. Recommendations for reducing mortality are suggested.

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The distribution pattern of South Africa’s heterogeneous population has historically been shaped not only by socio-economic forces but very markedly by political ones. Where members of the different population groups live - mainly Asians, Blacks, Coloureds and Whites - has, for many years to greater or lesser extent been determined by laws promulgated by consecutive White governments. Despite the effect of these restrictive measures on macro- and micro-spatial patterns, economic and political realities have recently brought adaptive changes in government policy with concomitant migration responses. Though these changes attract greater attention, significant evolutionary migratory movements are simultaneously taking place. In this paper a largely descriptive model of adaptive migration in South African society is presented. In explaining the model and to draw tentative conclusions the paper addresses three recent movements, the first two stemming from policy changes and the other evolutionary in nature.
The first movement, containing macro- and micro-elements pertains to Blacks. It follows in the wake of the acknowledgement that restrictive policies have failed to curb Black urbanization in “White” areas despite the establishment since 1960 of some 100 new towns in the homelands. As Blacks are still the least urbanized group in South Africa, have numerical superiority, as well as the highest rate of population growth of the four groups, their potential for urbanization is the greatest. These realities have caused the government to abolish influx control. Free movement is now possible but the already overpopulated Black townships adjacent to “White” cities cannot accommodate large numbers of in-coming people. Furthermore the Group Areas Act, which determines the place where population groups may reside is still in force, effectively closing “White” urban centres to Blacks-however the first signs of a breakdown of this act are noticeable. Normative policies facilitating societal change are obviously required.
The second movement, also of a macro-nature and relating to Indians, is very recent. Until the beginning of 1987 Indians, the major Asian group, were barred from residing in the Orange Free State. Since the scrapping of these restrictive measures they have been quick to respond and, though numbers are still small, Indians have moved into this province necessitating land allocation to them albeit subject to the Group Act.
The third movement pertains to elderly Whites in Pretoria. It is illustrative of evolutionary micro-migration in urban areas and as such reflects changes in life-cycle in relation to socio-economic status. It is used as an indicator of possible intra-urban movements in a normalised future South African society.

Book Reviews

1. Fertility in India: An Econometric Analysis of a Metropolis,
by S. C. Gulati. Sage Publications, New Delhi, 1988. 203 pp. ISBN: 0-8039-9562-8(USA), 81-7036-099-4(India)
- Paul K. C. Liu

2. Fertility and Mortality: Theory, Methodology and Empirical Issues,
edited by K. Mahadevan, with P. J. Reddy and D. A. Naidu. Sage Publications, New Delhi, Beverly Hills, London, 1986. 351 pp.
- Jow-Ching Tu

3. Social Development, Cultural Change and Fertility Decline: A Study of Fertility Change in Kerala,
by K. Mahadevan and M. Sumangala. Sage Publications, New Delhi, 1987. 190 pp.
- Lan-Hung Chiang

4. Infant Mortality in India: Differentials and Determinants,
edited by Jain A. K. and Visaria P. Sage Publications, New Delhi, 1988.
- Chien-Jen Chen