此篇文章無中文摘要

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of demographic structural change on labor utilization in Taiwan. Labor utilization in this study includes unemployment, involuntary part-time work, low income work, education-occupation mismatched work, and adequately utilized work. Demographic structural change covers the composition changes in age, sex, education, and marital status of labor force. Both purging method and decomposing rate differences method are used to analyze labor utilization data obtained from reports on the Manpower Utilization Survey from 1980 to 1989. The results suggest that the age-sex composition change of labor force from 1980 to 1989 pushed down the crude rate of labor underutilization in the labor market; the education-sex composition change also pushed down crude underutilization rate. In sum, the demographic structural change of labor force in Taiwan does have obvious impact on labor utilization.

本文係利用行政院主計處1987年十月份勞動力調查資料，探討遷徙之流向組成與遷徙動機對職業結構之影響。本文發現遷徙選擇性受到三種力量的制約，即核心地區之職業結構，職業特性及遷徙動機。遷徙者之職業結構主要取決於核心地區之職業結構，而另外二者則產生偏離的作用。

No English abstract available.

此篇文章無中文摘要

This paper test both Clark’s negative expondential model and Newling’s quadratic exponential model against the population densities in districts of Kaohsiung Metropolis. It proposes four theoretical amendments and supplements to the population density function and the related theories. First, Newling’s conclusion, derived from the first derivative of the quadratic exponential model, that “the highest point of the urban population density lies at the place which is b/2c away from the center of the city, ” is true only when the b parameter (density gradient) is positive, and when there is a density crater at the center of the city. Otherwise, the highest point lies at the center when the city is undergoing “centralization”, and does not have a density crater. Meanwhile, the place which is b/2c away has the lowest point of the population density. Second, after examining Clark’s negative exponential model, Newling concludes the “in the same period, the farther the region is away from the center of the city, the higher the rate of population growth will be. ” This point is not true in the following two aspects: (1)it is not appropriate to assume that the density gradient will “decline exponentially as time marches on”; on the contrary, it will increase accordingly when the city is experiencing its period of “centralization”, (2)instead of the previous interpretation, the implication of this formula should be revised as: “the rate of population growth is higher everywhere outside than in the center of the city. ” Third, Berry`s arguments about the “Western cities” and “Non-Western cities” cannot be sustained since he was misled by the temporal phenomenon. There should have been no differences in the distributive pattern of the population density between these two kinds of cities, since, if investigated both backward and forward in longitude, they both have the “centralization” and “decentralization” processes. Fourth, the quadratic exponential model explicates the distributive phenomenon much better than the negative one. Moreover, there are significant divergences in their interpretative power between the two models, especially at the stage of “centralization” when the city is newly established, and at the last stage of declination after “decentralization. ”

此篇文章無中文摘要

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between socio-economic development and migration among different counties in Taiwan. Based on data of 1979 and 1988 this study examines the hypothesis that socio-economic development had an impact on migration.
Using the method of cluster analysis, we identified six clusters of socio-economic development of counties in 1979 and in 1988 respectively. The six clusters of socioeconomic development in 1979 are:

• (I)Traditional Agriculture Cluster,
• (II)Early Urbanized Cluster,
• (III)Pre-Accelerative Urbanized Cluster,
• (IV)Mid-Accelerative Urbanized Cluster,
• (V)Post-Accelerative Urbanized Cluster, and
• (VI)Stable Urbanized Cluster.

And, the six clusters of socio-economic development in 1988 are:

• (I)Early Urbanized Cluster,
• (II)Pre-Accelerative Urbanized Cluster,
• (III)Mid-Accelerative Urbanized Cluster,
• (IV)Post-Accelerative Urbanized Cluster,
• (V)Mature-hood Urbanized Cluster, and
• (VI)Stable Urbanized Cluster.

The examination of the relationship between socio-economic development and migration indicates that the higher the socio-economic development level, the higher the in-migration rate. In addition, the larger the difference between socio-economic clusters, the bigger the migration stream. The hypothesis that the migrants move to-ward areas with better socio-economic opportunities is supported.

此篇文章無中文摘要

Due to the rapid growth of population in Taiwan, the study of demography has always been the interest of the sociologist. Moreover, the three dynamics of indexes of population growth, birth and marriage rates have an apparent interdependent relationship, and they play an important role in the study of demography.
In this paper, we will focus on these three indexes and explore in terms of the time series model. Furthermore, the comparison and analysis will be made utilizing univariate ARIMA model, transfer function model and multivariate ARIMA model accordingly. The seasonal factor will also be considered. Lastly, the prediction will be made on the short term growth rate of these three indexes, and we will also estimate the monthly sum of population of the next two years in Taiwan.