此篇文章無中文摘要

The total fertility rate in Taiwan has reached the under-replacement level ever since the early 1980’s. The development is building a momentum towards the population decline in the next couple decades. A rapid population aging is then expected. According to projections provide the old-age dependency ratio can soar to above 50% level if the decline in fertility cannot be checked in the near future. It is then suggested that a well grounded social security system should be designed and put in effect to replace the family-supporting system, which is deemed to decline with the decline of survival number of adult children per parents, for the elderly’s income and daily living. To lessen the financial burden of the future generations, it is also suggested that a population policy aimed at preventing the fertility from future decline should be designed and enacted. To achieve the purpose, a tentative plan of promoting marriage and family formation has been proposed.

此篇文章無中文摘要

This paper applies the multiple-decrement life table to the analysis of mortality and self-reported disability by national samples, annually from 1986 until 1989, of population of age over 15. It was found that during this period of time, the shifts in ‘mortality’ and ‘disability’ curves conform to the compression hypothesis. The area in between the two curves have shrunk in the 4 year period. But since we have only 4 years of observation, and the mortality transition in Taiwan has yet to reach the final and rising stage, we tend to accept the result on a tentative basis.
The sex differential in disability has been examined. It is concluded that though at the younger ages women tend to spend less person-years in disability, the situation is quite different at older ages. Women tend to have greater chance and longer duration suffering from disability at old age than men. This is another indication that the compression in disability might be temporary.

此篇文章無中文摘要

Within seventy years (1920-1989), Taiwan area is accomplishing the population transition and epidemiological transition in fastest speed than the Western nations. This fastest transition in population and epidemiology causes the dramatic change in age structure. And, the aging population will be increasing faster in future forty to fifty years.
Based on cohort component method used by this study, the result of the population projection demonstrates that the aged population occupies 6% (1,200,000) of total Taiwan population in 1989, the percentage will increase to 10% (2,420,000) in 2009, and over 20% (5,320,000) in 2034. Additionally, employing the multilogistic regression, the result shows that even if the advanced medical standard and living standard can delay the occurrence of diseases to the final life stage of the elderly, the population of no self-care ability elder will still be increasing in fast speed. In 1989, the population of no self-care ability elder is 50,000. According to the methods of compression of morbidity (low projection) and failure of success (high projection), this no self-care ability elderly population will be 180,000 and 410,000 in 2034. In accordance with this huge aging population, based on this projection, in 1994, the necessary nursing professionals will be 2,405 (low projection) and 13,845 (high projection);11,709 (low) and 55,194 (high) in 2034. However, there are only 10 nursing professionals in 1989 and 30 health-care professionals in March, 1990 in Taiwan area.
Thus, the imperative need in in-home nursing professionals and multi-health-care system are suggested by this study.

此篇文章無中文摘要

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of age composition on labor force participation rate as well as the change of age-specific labor force participation rate for both males and females in Taiwan. Standardization technique from population method is used to analyze labor force participation data obtained from the Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey from 1979 to 1990. Results from the standardization analyses indicated that the age composition change of from 1979 to 1990 has a leveling effect on the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for both males and females. During the period of time, rate of male labor force participation has been decreased while female labor force participation rate has been increased and then leveling off. Other things being equal, the exact increase and decrease of LFPR for males and females are all more than crude rate. The increase of LFPR of females in Taiwan is mainly due to married women entering the labor market and few of them quit after child birth; while the decrease of LFPR of males is attributed to the facts that the expansion of education opportunities for teenagers and the earlier retirement of the elder male population.

此篇文章無中文摘要

The Purpose of this paper is to compute the effects of changes in the composition of age, sex, and labor force participation rate, and education of population and labor force on the overall unemployment rate in Taiwan. The results show that the changes in the composition of age-sex and labor force participation rate have had a increasingly significant downward pressure on the overall unemployment rate. However, the compositional changes in the education-sex have exerted considerable upward pressure on the overall unemployment rate increasingly, the policy-makers should pay attention to this phenomenon. It not only wastes the educational resources, but also will exercise unfavorable influence on Taiwan’s economic development in the future.

本文目的是探討六項個人因素(種族、教育、水準、職業、主雇類別、所得、移民時期)對加拿大移民目的地選擇型態的影響。分析資料來自一九八一年人口普查的百分之二的抽樣資料。個人因素的相對重要性是靠多變項邏輯模型來衡量。因原始資料的分類太多，不便直接應用LOGIT模型。我們先用聚類分析(cluster analysis)把分類減少。
雖然上述六項個人因素都在統計上對移民的目的地選擇型態顯出某種程度的影響，它們的相對重要性卻差別甚大。最重要的影響因素是種族，其次是職業和移民時期。其它三項因素則不太重要。
基於資料分析的結果，我們認為加拿大移民之目的地選擇型態會繼續導引出片塊狀的文化景觀，但對人力資源品質上的空間差異不會有太大的影響。

No English abstract available.

依據南非內政部的統計，來自臺灣的投資移民人數已經成為第四多的國外合法移民。他們來南非的主要動機是(1)南非政府所提供優惠獎勵措施所吸引，(2)較寬鬆的居留權申請手續，(3)移民仲介的推波助瀾，(4)臺灣境內的移民風氣等所致。
本研究嘗試探討臺灣新移民打算長期居留在南非的意願，以及影響他們再移出的因素。經由因素分析所得的三個社會人口變項作為自變項，分別代表他們在南非的社會經濟成就，個人適應能力，與臺灣的家庭連絡力。兩個中介變項，接受異文化程度（內在適應）以及不滿意程度（外在適應）是促使他們決定長期居留或再移民的主要因素。本研究採立意抽樣調查、區判分析法（Discrimiant analysis）作為移民接受異文化、不滿意及再移民意願的高低程度。逐步迴歸分析應用在再移民的路徑模式上。
本研究建議，以移入國的南非為例，應重視臺灣移民在當地的語言能力訓練及適應情形，以提高他們接受當地文化的程度，此外若要在南非的臺灣新移民降低其不滿意程度以及增加長期居留意願，以求避免他們攜帶資金再移往他國，南非政府應當協助他們在當地尋求某些必要程度的社會經濟成就。

No English abstract available.

本文就模里斯自1969至1986年間之十大死因趨勢做一回顧，並以年齡別標準化死因別死亡率作為指標，探討該國各種死因的變化與趨勢，配以各種健康轉型理論的架構及流行病轉型理論來解釋其變遷的結果。

No English abstract available.

研究的目的在探討都會區遷徙與通勤之相互關係。探討的重點有二：一為兩者在量方面的關係，我們猜測臺北都會通勤的數量已步入超越遷徙人數的階段。其二為遷徙者與通勤者之間是否具有替代的關係，或者是通勤者與遷徙者是來自不同的群體。
民國七十七年十月份的勞動力調查資料在分析以後，其結果顯示，臺北都會區之通勤人數已遠超過遷徙人數。其次我們也發現，遷徙者與通勤者是來自不同的群體。對遷出地而言，遷徙者是正性選擇，他們比遷出地居民年輕，大多未婚。這種選擇性在長程遷徙者中尤其顯著。而通勤者之選擇性則不同。他們的年齡與婚姻狀況與居住地一般居民雷同，所從事的職業卻有顯著的不同，臺北市之藍領階級供職於外圍城鎮或其他地區者顯著多於一般居民。反過來，從外圍城鎮與其他地區到臺北市工作的通勤者，其白領階級的比例則顯著多於居住地之一般居民。

No English abstract available.