第二十一期人口學刊2000.10 出刊


本期目錄

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國際人口遷移 ; 人口對流類型 ; 人口對流類型變遷 ; 亞洲國家 ; International migration ; Migration type ; Changes of migration type ; Asia countries
中文摘要
筆者因見於臺灣與東亞及東南亞國家與地區間人口對流漸多,且密切關聯其間的經濟、社會、政治等多方面的互動,但此方面的訊息及資料極為缺乏,乃作此研究。研究重點取摘對臺灣與東亞及東南亞國家與地區間淨對流人口的類型的認定及其變遷的分析,理由之一是因見於類型及變遷在學術研究上相當重要,也因有Peterson的遷移類型及Thomas的遷移變遷理論等為之啟發。
本研究的目標或主要的內容,包括認定淨對流人口的類型與分析其變遷兩大方面,其中再細分成淨對流方向、淨對流人口數量及淨對流人口組合等的類型及其變遷的細項。所用資料得自內政部出入境管理局及警政署。研究時間概括民國78年至87年之間。
在論文之末,筆者對蒐集原始資料的改進及對行政與學術等各界應用本研究結果的有效運用於社會經濟改善、政治改進及學術發展等,也提出扼要的建議。
Abstract
Several factors or forces stimulated the present study. First the international migration between Taiwan and other - Asia countries and areas increased and the implication of the migration to economic, social and political interactions between Taiwan and these other countries and areas expanded. Second, the status of study on typology and change is important in the academic field. Third, there were good concepts of migration patterns and good theories of migration changes in previous studies. Fourth, studies in the same area in Taiwan are lacking.
Major objectives or contents of this study include. (1) to identify types of net -migration between Taiwan and other Asia countries and areas, and (2) to analyze changes of the net -migration types. Several specific types. and changes are identified on the basis of several important migration indicators, e.g. migration direction. number of net migrants, and compositions of net migrants.
Available data were collected from Entrance and Exit Bureau of Interior Ministry and Police Department of Interior Ministry. Study period covers 1989 through 1998.
In the final part of the paper suggestions for Improving qualities of original data and effective ways for applying the study results for social economic betterment, political improvement and academic development have been proposed.

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老化 ; 年齡 ; 生活美滿 ; 生命事件 ; Aging ; Age ; Life ; Satisfaction ; Life ; Events
中文摘要
本研究之目的在探討年齡增長對臺灣地區老人之生活滿意之影響。經利用臺灣省家庭計畫研究所在1989及1993年所舉辦的老人健康與生活狀況調查資料進行分析,結果發現未控制相關因素時,老人之生活滿意度隨年齡增長而遞減。而控制生命重大事件等相關因素後,70歲以上老人之生活滿意高於60-64歲之老人。在相關因素中以收入變化之影響最大,休閒與旅遊等活動水準居次,再其次為居住安排與健康之變化。
Abstract
This study is aimed at investigating the relationship between the increase of age and life satisfaction. It analyzes the longitudinal survey data conducted by Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning in 1989 and 1993. The analytical results show that there is a negative relationship between age and life satisfaction when correlates are not controlled. Once the correlates including major life cycle events are controlled, the elderly aged 70 or above feel more satisfied than the elderly aged 60-64. Of the correlates, decrease of income is most influential. It is followed by level of social activities, living arrangement, and worsening of health condition.

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貧窮動態 ; 追蹤調查 ; 貧窮歷程 ; 存活分析 ; Cox model ; Censoring ; Event-history analysis ; Hazard rates
中文摘要
雖然對於貧窮的解釋,產生了許多的爭論,但是由於資料的限制,一般研究以橫斷面的資料為主,且各年的貧窮率變化不大,而誤認為貧窮是時間持續很長的現象。自有長期追蹤研究以後,對於持續貧窮的看法才有所改變。本研究的目的在於探討貧窮動態,以嘉義縣的低收入戶為例,追蹤嘉義縣貧窮家戶(1988-1996)的貧窮持續時間。
研究發現中位貧窮持續時間為4.55年,脫離貧窮的機率大致是隨貧窮時間延長而下降。此一下降趨勢,並非貧窮本身使人不易脫離貧窮,而是具有容易脫離貧窮特質的家戶先行脫離,留下具有不易脫離貧窮特質的家戶。而影響貧窮持續時間的重要因素有年齡、教育年數、是否為單親家庭、與戶內有工作能力人數。年齡愈大者可能因死亡而較早脫離貧窮,以致貧窮持續時間愈短。教育年數愈高者愈有能力在較短的時間內找到足以脫離貧窮的資源。與國外的研究不同的發現是,單親家庭的貧窮持續時間較短。戶內有工作能力人數愈多,則其貧窮持續時間愈短。
Abstract
Due to the limitations of data, most poverty researches in the past used cross-sectional data. This was despite the disputes on the nature and dynamics of poverty. Furthermore, the fact that poverty rates remained rather stable over time led many researchers to conclude that poverty was a long term phenomenon. This misconception began to change once the longitudinal panel data became available. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the poverty dynamics using panel data from poverty households in Chia-Yi county during the 1988-1996 period.
The results of our analyses indicate that the median number of years for our sample to remain in poverty was 4.55 years and the probability of leavig poverty decreased as the length of time staying in poverty increased. This was not due to the difficulty of leaving poverty per se. Rather, it was due to the fact that those who were more able to leave poverty actually left earlier and those who could not leave remained in poverty. Among the factors that affect the length of staying in poverty were age (of the heads of households), number of years of schooling, whether single-heads households, and the number of household members with the ability to work. Those heads of households who were older who left poverty earlier than their younger counterparts could be due to the earlier death of the former than the latter. Those with better education were also those who were more likely to obtain necessary resources to leave poverty. Two major differences between this study and those from foreign nations were found. First, in Taiwan, single-headed households tend to be able to leave poverty sooner than their foreign counterparts. Second, as the number of household members with the ability to work increased, the probability of leaving poverty also inceased more so in Taiwan than their foreign counterparts.

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卡克斯模型 ; 事件史分析 ; 危犯率 ; 限控 ; 再就業 ; Cox model ; Event-history analysis ; Hazard rates ; Censoring ; Job reentry
中文摘要
本研究之特點在於採用事件史分析法來探討已婚婦女再就業之時機及其解釋因素。採用行政院主計處「婦女婚育與就業調查」1983與1993兩年資料,本研究先針對20-26歲已婚婦女再就業型態加以分類並描述其人口特質,其次針對「曾因結婚離職」與「曾因生育離職」者,分析其再就業時間之分布。研究指出,在離職後之20年間,「曾因結婚離職者」再就業之可能性比「曾因生育離職者」低,而且再就業可能性1993年比1983年高。尤值得注意的,離職後第三年與第十年均為再就業之高峰期,這個現象又以「曾因生育離職者」最為明顯。
採用「卡克斯模型」分析,發現影響婦女「再就業」的解釋因素中「年齡」與「配偶教育」在兩類復職與各年間均有一致的負效應,即不利於再就業。另外,在「曾因生育離職」婦女中,須照顧小孩者不利於再就業,也在1983與1993兩年資料中一致出現。研究結果說明著臺灣婦女再就業仍受到家庭生命週期的影響,隱含對於傳統性別角色專業化說法的支持,以及家庭經濟理性的考量仍重於婦女個人薪資效益的考量。由於在1983至1993年間,婦女個人教育的效應從不顯著轉變為顯著且正面的淨影響,即婦女個人教育高有助於再就業,意含著婦女個人因素的重要性隨時間增加中。
Abstract
This research examined the timing of job reentry for married women who had ever quitted from job market due to marriage or birth. Using 1983 and 1993 waves of Fertility and Employment of Married Women Survey conducted by DGBAS, the author converted the retrospective information in the survey into women’s work histories. This paper reported that these women were more likely to reenter job market in the third and the tenth years after quitting than any other time. The peaks of the curve were of particular prominence in 1993 sample and for the birth-quitting women. By employing the Cox Model, the author further analyzed the factors that might be used to interpret the event of job reentry while censoring was taken into account. Both models of marriage-quitting and of birth-quitting commonly revealed that age and spouse’s schooling were negatively related to the job reentry. Childcare was another factor that negatively affected the job reentry for birth-quitting women in both survey years. Besides, schooling was getting important in 1993 when compared with that in 1983.

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大陸漁工 ; 海上船屋 ; 福利分析 ; Mainland crews ; Hotel on sea ; Welfare analysis
中文摘要
圍內基層勞力不足已普遍存在各級產業中,漁業即是典型的例子。解嚴後,大陸漁工因和臺灣居民同文同種較易溝通,加上漁業作業不須登岸,故僱用上逐漸受各業者的青睞。也較能為相關管理單位所接受。而漁業勞力極為短缺的治近海漁船,業者藉由作業上的方便,透過各種管道引進為數不少的大陸船員,甚至在各主要漁港建立「海上船屋」從而就近僱用出海作業;此一引進方式,在幾次的海上喋血、漁工落海等安全事件後,已使大陸漁工的僱用與管理問題浮上政經檯面。由於其僱用關係到「國家安全法」及「兩岸人民關係條例」,甚至對圍內經濟與社會福利亦有一定程度的影響。因此,本文就漁產業、社會福利、及國家安全等層面,剖析治近海漁船引進大陸漁工之經濟與福利影響,供業者僱用及政府相關單位擬定管理政策之參考。
Abstract
Labor shortage exists in primary industries, it is also a typical problem in fishery industry. The government lifted the Martial law in 1987; employers begin to seek remedy in recruiting Mainland crews. The main reason are of the same race and language, thus ease of communication, and the nature of fishery works are off-land and more acceptable by the government. For in-shore fishery industry, employers have recruited Mainland crew and build hotels on sea within 12 miles. Recently, crime and safety concerns requiring proper accommodations for crew’s management. There is an urgency to address crew hiring and management in both political and economical aspects. Employing mainland crews is related to the National Security Law and Law of People Relationship across Strait, and has influences on economic and social safety to some degree. This study evaluates the economical impacts of employing Mainland crew from the aspects of fishery industry, social welfare, and national safety. In addition, address resolution of employment and setting relative management policies.