Mortality projection for the elderly plays a critical role in designing welfare policies for them. Most prevailing projection methods perform well when there is sufficient mortality information. However, the projection power of these methods is uncertain when the mortality profile is incomplete. In this paper, we propose a ratio method, which includes techniques used in regression and time series analyses that utilize the relationship between the old-age group and their younger counterpart to compensate for the lack of mortality information on the former. A simulation demonstrates how this method reduces projection errors. In addition, we compare this new method to three prevailing projection methods (Lee-Cater, SOA, and Pollard). Based on the mortality data on the elderly in Taiwan between 1950 and 1997 and using the data between 1950 and 1992 as pilot data and that between 1993 and 1997 as test data, we evaluate the prediction power of these methods and find that the ratio method is the best for predicting female mortality rates in terms of the absolute and squared errors.

死亡率的推估在設計老年人的福利政策上扮演一個關鍵性的角色。當各年齡死亡資料完整時，常見的死亡率推估方法大多都預測良好；但若高年齡組的死亡資料不完整時，這些方法的預測能力則不能確定。鑑於相關文獻十分缺乏，我們乃於本文中提出一個「比值推估法」以降低推估的不確定性。此推估法結合迴歸模型和時間序列模型的方法，估計出各高年齡組(通常資料較不充足)死亡率與某一參考年齡組死亡率之間的比值關係；本文也以電腦模擬討論比值法如何減少推估的誤差。另外，我們以臺灣1950年到1997年的高齡人口死亡資料為分析對象，將比值法與其他三種最為常用的方法(Lee-Carter， SOA及Pollard)的推估結果比較，發現在絕對和平方誤差為判斷依據時，比值法在預測女性死亡率上均為最好的方法。

近年來臺灣地區年輕人呈現遲婚與不婚現象，不僅導致生育率的下降，「頂客族」名稱也成為一個新族群的標記。究竟「頂客族」有多少?本研究使用1992年至1998年「臺灣地區家庭收支調查」來推佑，並嘗試釐清以戶為單位的調查資料，「頂客族」可能的意涵。夫婦均在工作且家戶中只有夫婦二人，作為「頂客族」之操作定義，1998年資料顯示，「頂客族」，佔總家戶約百分之三點五，約為22萬戶。值得注意的，透過家戶型態來推，估「頂客族」，呈現一批夫妻年紀較輕、教育程度高、多為白領階級之「現代頂客族」，以及另一批夫妻年紀較大、教育程度偏低、且多為務農者之「空巢頂客族」，前者約佔總家戶之3%，為19萬戶。可是，從都市化的觀點，「現代頂客族」在臺灣應只是方興未艾，尚未形成隨地區都市化程度而增，加的趨勢。若以個人或家庭特質來解釋成為「現代頂客族」的可能性，本研究採用對數迴歸多變項分析，結果顯示，丈夫年齡越高與恩格爾係數越，高越不利於成為「現代頂客族」，而妻子為專業白領工作者成為「現代頂客族」的機會高，個人與家庭特質的解釋在1992與1998年資料中都得到支持。

One of the main demographic features in recent years in Taiwan is the decreasing birth rate. The young are more likely to marry later than older cohorts and to delay pregnancy. This research focuses on investigating the number of DINKs (couples with double income and no kids) and its distribution in Taiwan. Using data from the 1992-98 Surveys of Family Income and Expenditure, the authors identified two kinds of DINKs differentiated on the basis of their living arrangements. The Empty Nest DINK category consists mainly of older couples with low education levels and largely engaged in agriculture. Modem DINKs are mainly relatively young couples, most with white collar jobs. The latter, because of their low birth rates, captures our concern. The number of Modem DINKs increased slightly between 1992-1998, when it accounted for 3 percent of total households. Multivariate analysis shows that wives with white-collar jobs, or households with lower Engler coefficient of expenditure style are more likely to become Modem DINKs. That the net effect of urbanization was not significant in 1992 but was in 1998 indicates that Modem DINKs are becoming a more significant category.

本文旨在對外勞在臺灣諸種課題作一完整回顧及評估，首先將1989至2000年的在臺外勞之引進作扼要陳述，其次回顧外勞的經濟理論及爭議，接著簡介我國外勞引進政策的基本原則，最後則整理有關外勞政策的影響之實證研究，並檢討現行外勞政策、及提出改進之道。對於外勞政策，建議在WTO的有關原則下，政府只應保留「總量限制」的限量規定，而將價格與管理回歸市場機能，由政府擔任監督者，仲介公司則成為實際負責的外勞引進及管理者，如此不但可降低外勞引進的社會成本，也可使外勞引進的利升弊減。

In October 1989, the Taiwanese labor market was opened up to contract workers from abroad. While the substitution effects between foreign and local workers have still to be justified by empirical research, the reduction of Taiwan’s unemployment rate and the solution to some of its social problems is still focussed squarely on the issue of foreign workers. Because of labor market constraints and the ways in labor is recruited, problems attributed to the presence of foreign workers are difficult to solve. This paper undertakes a complete review and evaluation of the presence of foreign workers in Taiwan.

失能或失智的老人該由誰照顧？如何照顧？如何減輕家屬等親人所背負的煩惱不安及辛苦？其對策之一便是「介護保險」。
1994年3月，日本厚生省成立「高齡者介護對策本部」，同年12月，其內部負責研究介護服務的「高齡者介護、自立支援系統研究會」提交報告於老人保健福祉審議會中審議，正式審議由1995年2月開始(審議達50次)。另外有關執政黨福利企劃小組的意見和制度審議會的勸告，以及老人保健福，祉審議會的中間報告亦於1995年內相繼完成。基本上，老人照顧政策採用社會保險方式的「介護保險制度」在全體國民的認知上已達成共識。經過1年多的討論，1996年4月，厚生省提出「高齡者介護保險制度大綱」於老人保健福祉審議會中接受質詢，於1997年12月通過法案。至此，介護保險制度之施行大致已成定局。
介護保險制度決定於2000年4月實施，其間所牽涉的供給與負擔雙方面，的利害關係十分複雜，具體上應如何劃分包括醫療機關、福利機構的給付範圍，中央與地方的行政權責，老人與非老人的負擔比例，國家介入(公費補助)的程度，家屬介護的定位，是否現金給付等細節，官學民間各界仍然意見多歧。
本稿擬就日本成立介護保險制度的歷史脈絡與背景條件檢討分析，並以此作為今後臺灣老人扶養及長期照顧政策的參考實例。

Who is responsible for disabled elderly people? How can the burden of care on families be eased? “Long-Term Care Insurance” is one of the solutions.
In April, 2000, after six years of deliberation, consultation and drafting, Japan implemented a Long- Term Care Insurance for the elderly on a social insurance mode1. However, that bil1 raises many complicated questions about the detai1s of who benefits and who carries the burden. Specifically, how will the costs and burdens to be borne be divided between medical and social welfare bodies, the central and local governments, and the elderly, their families and others? The opinions of officials, scholars and the public are quite divergent on these questions.
This paper critically analyses the history and background of Japan’s Long-Term Care Insurance and presents it as a living example that Taiwan can consider as a model for a scheme to provide long-term care for our own elderly.

臺灣地區面積有限，故過去在人口問題中，人口的「成長率」與「數量控制」一直是核心議題，但在快速降低生育率與平均壽命延長的過程中，也埋下了日後人口快速老化的因子，「人口老化」成了人口轉型過程中不可避免的結果，隨著社會、經濟的發展，降低了的生育率不易再快速提高，因此，未來臺灣地區人口快速老化的現象不易在短期內得到解決。依照聯合國之定義，人口結構中老年人口佔總人口比例超過7%時，就進入了所謂的「人口老化」階段，臺灣地區1993年底老年人口之比例為7.09%，人口結構正式進入了所謂「老化」階段，到2000年底已達8.62%。伴隨著高齡化社會的來臨，老年人口之就醫、就養、休閒……等相關問題也逐漸受到正視，但各地區因自然條件與社會經濟發展程度之不同，人口老化現象在空間上可能也會有明顯的空間差異。因此，本研究以臺北縣為研究區，以現行之行政區為空間單元，分析人口老化之空間差異。
依研究發現，以全縣人口結構來看65歲以上人口之比例僅佔6.21%，尚未達到老化標準，但若仔細觀察各鄉鎮市資料，卻有不同之發現。扣除唯一之山地鄉-烏來後，其餘28鄉鎮市人口老化的現象在空間上有顯著差異，在原有8縣轄市與北二高沿線新興鄉鎮市，老年扶養比與老年人口比例較低，而東北角與北海岸五鄉鎮，除淡水外其餘的均非常高，未來對老年人口的照護勢必由家庭轉為政府或第三部門，臺北縣雖未達到老年化之標準，但因人口基數大，此現象與臺北縣的發展歷程和空間區位有關。隨著老年扶養比不斷提高，未來人口老化問題也將更嚴重。因此，對老年福利的支出應有較大比例在老化現象較明顯的偏遠郊區，如東北角與北海岸應多設立安養與收容機構，並建立巡迴醫療資源到郊區服務，而慢性病的醫療資源則應常設於安養機構中同時建立急症後送系統，都市地區雖然不明顯，但因老年人口眾多，故也不應輕忽。

In the past, the main concern of population-related issues in Taiwan has been control the natural growth rate and to mitigate its potential negative impacts. In the experience of other countries, a rapidly declining birth rate is associated with population aging. It took spent only about 70 years to complete its demographic transition. By the end of 1993, population aged 65 and over had reached a level of about 7 percent. Thus, it is expected that population aging shall become a major national concern in the future. Based on the existing demographic data, the paper calculates the growth rate of the elderly and an Aging Index, aiming at analyzing the spatial differential of population aging in Taipei County, the most populous in Taiwan. The research finds that 1) population aging is related to the level of urbanization: rural areas tend to be associated with a higher level of aged population than their urban counterparts; and 2) the level of population aging is negatively related to the level of regional economic development: because of better job opportunities, the new towns along Route 3 attract rural youths, mitigates the problems of population aging in those areas, while population aging is a growing concern for rural areas.