Mortality projection for the elderly plays a critical role in designing welfare policies for them. Most prevailing projection methods perform well when there is sufficient mortality information. However, the projection power of these methods is uncertain when the mortality profile is incomplete. In this paper, we propose a ratio method, which includes techniques used in regression and time series analyses that utilize the relationship between the old-age group and their younger counterpart to compensate for the lack of mortality information on the former. A simulation demonstrates how this method reduces projection errors. In addition, we compare this new method to three prevailing projection methods (Lee-Cater, SOA, and Pollard). Based on the mortality data on the elderly in Taiwan between 1950 and 1997 and using the data between 1950 and 1992 as pilot data and that between 1993 and 1997 as test data, we evaluate the prediction power of these methods and find that the ratio method is the best for predicting female mortality rates in terms of the absolute and squared errors.

One of the main demographic features in recent years in Taiwan is the decreasing birth rate. The young are more likely to marry later than older cohorts and to delay pregnancy. This research focuses on investigating the number of DINKs (couples with double income and no kids) and its distribution in Taiwan. Using data from the 1992-98 Surveys of Family Income and Expenditure, the authors identified two kinds of DINKs differentiated on the basis of their living arrangements. The Empty Nest DINK category consists mainly of older couples with low education levels and largely engaged in agriculture. Modem DINKs are mainly relatively young couples, most with white collar jobs. The latter, because of their low birth rates, captures our concern. The number of Modem DINKs increased slightly between 1992-1998, when it accounted for 3 percent of total households. Multivariate analysis shows that wives with white-collar jobs, or households with lower Engler coefficient of expenditure style are more likely to become Modem DINKs. That the net effect of urbanization was not significant in 1992 but was in 1998 indicates that Modem DINKs are becoming a more significant category.

In October 1989, the Taiwanese labor market was opened up to contract workers from abroad. While the substitution effects between foreign and local workers have still to be justified by empirical research, the reduction of Taiwan’s unemployment rate and the solution to some of its social problems is still focussed squarely on the issue of foreign workers. Because of labor market constraints and the ways in labor is recruited, problems attributed to the presence of foreign workers are difficult to solve. This paper undertakes a complete review and evaluation of the presence of foreign workers in Taiwan.

Who is responsible for disabled elderly people? How can the burden of care on families be eased? “Long-Term Care Insurance” is one of the solutions.
In April, 2000, after six years of deliberation, consultation and drafting, Japan implemented a Long- Term Care Insurance for the elderly on a social insurance mode1. However, that bil1 raises many complicated questions about the detai1s of who benefits and who carries the burden. Specifically, how will the costs and burdens to be borne be divided between medical and social welfare bodies, the central and local governments, and the elderly, their families and others? The opinions of officials, scholars and the public are quite divergent on these questions.
This paper critically analyses the history and background of Japan’s Long-Term Care Insurance and presents it as a living example that Taiwan can consider as a model for a scheme to provide long-term care for our own elderly.

In the past, the main concern of population-related issues in Taiwan has been control the natural growth rate and to mitigate its potential negative impacts. In the experience of other countries, a rapidly declining birth rate is associated with population aging. It took spent only about 70 years to complete its demographic transition. By the end of 1993, population aged 65 and over had reached a level of about 7 percent. Thus, it is expected that population aging shall become a major national concern in the future. Based on the existing demographic data, the paper calculates the growth rate of the elderly and an Aging Index, aiming at analyzing the spatial differential of population aging in Taipei County, the most populous in Taiwan. The research finds that 1) population aging is related to the level of urbanization: rural areas tend to be associated with a higher level of aged population than their urban counterparts; and 2) the level of population aging is negatively related to the level of regional economic development: because of better job opportunities, the new towns along Route 3 attract rural youths, mitigates the problems of population aging in those areas, while population aging is a growing concern for rural areas.