No. 3, Journal of Population StudiesPublished: 1979.05
Contents
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Abstract
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Abstract
During July and August 1973 a survey was conducted for the purpose of evaluating the accuracy of the population coverage and the reported characteristics on the registration records. A representative sample of 160 neighborhoods (lins) was selected and al1 households and persons in these neighborhoods were, enumerated. The enumerated population was then compared to the registered population of each neighborhood.
All available evidence indicates that the population coverage in the Taiwan household registration systems is very good. With the exception of infants less than six months old, there are few people who are not included in the register. The possibility, exists that some persons are counted at two places of residence. However the evidence for such double counting is weak and the overcount is not likely to exceed two percent. Thus we can conclude that the total population count from the register is within two percent of the actual populition of Taiwan. This is a small error compared to the errors in population coverage of most censuses in other countries.
Previous studies have established that birth and death registration are excellent with the exception of infants who die soon after birth. This study establishes that data on age sex, marital status, and relation to head of household are also recorded with a high degree of accuracy.
The register is not as accurate in the population counts for small areasor the distributions of education, occupation, and industry. These inaccuracies relate to the difficulties of keeping up with changes of residence and changes of characteristics of the population. Although the law requires that such changes be reported promptly, within 15 days the penalties for failure to report are small and many people delay reporting these changes or fail to report them all together. Further errors are caused by people who change their offictal place of residence without moving in order to complete some legal transection or to be able to send their children to school in another district.
Delays and other errors in the registration of changes of address cause the populations of areas of in-migration to be undercounted and the populations of areas of out-migration to be overcounted. This study showed that the population of the Taipei Metropolitan area was under counted by about 8 percent and the population of rural and small urban towns was overcounted by about 5 percent. These are overages and there is probably considerable variation among individual areas.
Delays in the reporting of changes in level of education, occupation and industry have a similar effect on the distribution of these characteristics. The overage level of education measured from the registration records tends to be lower than the actual level of the population because of people who have failed to report changes in education. Distributions of occupation and industry from the register show excesses in the declining occupations and industries and deficits in the growing occupations and industries. The most extreme example was for employment in agriculture in rural and small urban towns. While the registration records showed that 58 percent of the employed population in sample neighborhoods were employed in agriculture, umeration of these same ne ighborhoods found only 41 percent of the population employed in agriculture-Clearly the household register has failed to keep up with the rapid transformation of the industrial structure of Taiwan.
The delays and omissions of the registration of changes of residence and changes of characteristics are serious problems for all registration systems and it seems doubtful that the registration system could be improved to the extent that it could provide more accurate small area data than a good census. Some improvements could, however be made. First, in several European nations with household registers, information on changes of addresses, employment, and other characteristks is collected by other government agencies which come in contract with the individuals and the information is passed on to the registration office without requiring the individuals to·make a separate reports ( see. T. Van Den Brink, 1954 and United Nations, 1970).
The accuracy of the records would also be improved if all migrants were asked to report their current level of education, occupation, and industry when they registered their change of address. At present, there is a tendency to simply copy these it ems from the household record at the place of origin without verifying that they are still correct.
Finally the delays in registration of changes of address could be reduced if the periods for which people could register as transients with the police were reduced and extensions were not granted. Under the current system, people can satisfy the law by registering as transients for periods up to six months and can renew these registrations without reporting changes the household registration officials.
All available evidence indicates that the population coverage in the Taiwan household registration systems is very good. With the exception of infants less than six months old, there are few people who are not included in the register. The possibility, exists that some persons are counted at two places of residence. However the evidence for such double counting is weak and the overcount is not likely to exceed two percent. Thus we can conclude that the total population count from the register is within two percent of the actual populition of Taiwan. This is a small error compared to the errors in population coverage of most censuses in other countries.
Previous studies have established that birth and death registration are excellent with the exception of infants who die soon after birth. This study establishes that data on age sex, marital status, and relation to head of household are also recorded with a high degree of accuracy.
The register is not as accurate in the population counts for small areasor the distributions of education, occupation, and industry. These inaccuracies relate to the difficulties of keeping up with changes of residence and changes of characteristics of the population. Although the law requires that such changes be reported promptly, within 15 days the penalties for failure to report are small and many people delay reporting these changes or fail to report them all together. Further errors are caused by people who change their offictal place of residence without moving in order to complete some legal transection or to be able to send their children to school in another district.
Delays and other errors in the registration of changes of address cause the populations of areas of in-migration to be undercounted and the populations of areas of out-migration to be overcounted. This study showed that the population of the Taipei Metropolitan area was under counted by about 8 percent and the population of rural and small urban towns was overcounted by about 5 percent. These are overages and there is probably considerable variation among individual areas.
Delays in the reporting of changes in level of education, occupation and industry have a similar effect on the distribution of these characteristics. The overage level of education measured from the registration records tends to be lower than the actual level of the population because of people who have failed to report changes in education. Distributions of occupation and industry from the register show excesses in the declining occupations and industries and deficits in the growing occupations and industries. The most extreme example was for employment in agriculture in rural and small urban towns. While the registration records showed that 58 percent of the employed population in sample neighborhoods were employed in agriculture, umeration of these same ne ighborhoods found only 41 percent of the population employed in agriculture-Clearly the household register has failed to keep up with the rapid transformation of the industrial structure of Taiwan.
The delays and omissions of the registration of changes of residence and changes of characteristics are serious problems for all registration systems and it seems doubtful that the registration system could be improved to the extent that it could provide more accurate small area data than a good census. Some improvements could, however be made. First, in several European nations with household registers, information on changes of addresses, employment, and other characteristks is collected by other government agencies which come in contract with the individuals and the information is passed on to the registration office without requiring the individuals to·make a separate reports ( see. T. Van Den Brink, 1954 and United Nations, 1970).
The accuracy of the records would also be improved if all migrants were asked to report their current level of education, occupation, and industry when they registered their change of address. At present, there is a tendency to simply copy these it ems from the household record at the place of origin without verifying that they are still correct.
Finally the delays in registration of changes of address could be reduced if the periods for which people could register as transients with the police were reduced and extensions were not granted. Under the current system, people can satisfy the law by registering as transients for periods up to six months and can renew these registrations without reporting changes the household registration officials.
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Abstract
In most developing countries, with no exception of Taiwan, there are too much unskilled labor force, meanwhile there are also a great demand for manpower of higher level. Thus some places face with serious problem of unemployment or/and disguised unemployment while other industries find themselves difficult to locate people to fill important positions. The existence of this dilemma is basically due to rapid population growth and mistakes in negligence of previous population policy.
With a view for aiding manpower planning the objectives of this study are as follows:
1.to forecast the supply of rural labor force up to 1991.
2.to analyze the structural change of rural labor force between 1971 to 1976.
Data for present study were obtained from secondary sources such as Demographic Fact Book and Labor Force Survey Ouarterly. Cohort analysis was employed to forecast labor force supply, and component analysis was used to analyze its structural change. According to the proportion of agricultural employment, 361 townships and districts in Taiwan were classified into three categories, namely, Urbanized area, high rurality area, and medium rurality area.
The major findings of the present study were summarized as follows:
1. Taking into consideration of the effect of agricultural mechanization policy, from 1977 to 1991 the demand of agriculture labor force in rural area can be reduced by 520,000 persons, on the other hand, the supply of rural labor force in the same period will have a surplus of 390,000 persons. In other words, it is necessary to increase 910,000 non-farm-job opportunities in rural area during this period in order to absorb the surplus of rural labor force.
2. There was s close relationship between the magnitude of labor force change and urbanization. The more the urbanization an area was, the more increase of its total force would have. However the less urbanized area higher volume of natural increase.
3. There was an important sex differential in the changes of economic activity rates. During 1971~1976 period the changes of economic activity rates were greater among females than males. And the increase of female labor force was largely due to changes in socioeconomic factors, while for male it was due to natural increase.
4. There was a close relationship between migration and rurality. The more rurality a place was, the more its labor force would move out.
With a view for aiding manpower planning the objectives of this study are as follows:
1.to forecast the supply of rural labor force up to 1991.
2.to analyze the structural change of rural labor force between 1971 to 1976.
Data for present study were obtained from secondary sources such as Demographic Fact Book and Labor Force Survey Ouarterly. Cohort analysis was employed to forecast labor force supply, and component analysis was used to analyze its structural change. According to the proportion of agricultural employment, 361 townships and districts in Taiwan were classified into three categories, namely, Urbanized area, high rurality area, and medium rurality area.
The major findings of the present study were summarized as follows:
1. Taking into consideration of the effect of agricultural mechanization policy, from 1977 to 1991 the demand of agriculture labor force in rural area can be reduced by 520,000 persons, on the other hand, the supply of rural labor force in the same period will have a surplus of 390,000 persons. In other words, it is necessary to increase 910,000 non-farm-job opportunities in rural area during this period in order to absorb the surplus of rural labor force.
2. There was s close relationship between the magnitude of labor force change and urbanization. The more the urbanization an area was, the more increase of its total force would have. However the less urbanized area higher volume of natural increase.
3. There was an important sex differential in the changes of economic activity rates. During 1971~1976 period the changes of economic activity rates were greater among females than males. And the increase of female labor force was largely due to changes in socioeconomic factors, while for male it was due to natural increase.
4. There was a close relationship between migration and rurality. The more rurality a place was, the more its labor force would move out.