第三十一期人口學刊2005.12 出刊


本期目錄

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均衡失業率 ; 自然失業率 ; 縣市失業率差異 ; 長期追蹤資料 ; 雙因子固定效果估計法 ; Equilibrium unemployment rate ; Natural unemployment rate ; Regional unemployment differentials ; Panel data ; Two-factor fixed-effects estimation approach
中文摘要
本研究採用行政院主計處1987 至2001年各縣市男女年齡組別人力資源的「長期追蹤資料」,探討台灣失業率的長期演變情勢及惡化原因。採用「雙因子固定效果估計法」進行估計,主要結果有二:一、縣市失業率差異確實存在,且與縣市固定效果差異呈現同向變動,因此,各縣市之失業率及其間的長期差異,有相當程度是因各縣市的區域固定特性所造成;二、各縣市失業率與外勞引進量、基本工資水準和勞基法執行範圍等總體性政策呈高度正相關。由於總體經濟蕭條或繁榮將導致各區域失業率呈全國性的同步升降,綜合這些研究結果顯示,區域間「均衡失業率」(自然失業率)的差異乃是造成各地區整體失業率差異的主因。所以,除了全國性的總體經濟政策外,我們尚應採行一套隨區域特性變化的區域經濟成長政策,才能有效降低失業率。
Abstract
Panels of regional unemployment data across different demographic groups are examined to explore the sources of the deterioration in employment in Taiwan during the past decade. The application of the two-factor fixed-effects estimation approach leads to two main findings. First, wide regional unemployment differentials do exist and appear as the differences in fixed effects. Second, regional unemployment rates are found to be highly correlated with the macroeconomic policies of the importation of foreign workers, the level of the minimum wage, and the extent of the enforcement of the Labor Standards Law. As area unemployment rates rise or fall nationwide during a macroeconomic recession or expansion, these findings together imply that differences in the area equilibrium unemployment rate (natural unemployment rate) would dominate in the regional disparities of unemployment. Therefore, in addition to the demographic-specific and nationwide macroeconomic policies, it is necessary to adopt a set of regionally diversified policies that are aimed at promoting both regional economic growth and labor market flexibility.

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出生排序 ; 社經地位 ; 婚姻 ; 日治時期 ; 戶籍資料 ; Sibling order ; SES ; Colonial Taiwan ; Household registers ; Marriage
中文摘要
本研究以日治時期戶籍資料分析竹北閩南社區、竹北客家社區、竹山閩南社區及峨眉客家社區等四個地區之出生排序、社經地位對居民婚姻及生育的影響。採用邏輯迴歸模式測試社經地位與出生序別對於第一次婚姻及婚姻型態的影響;在第一次婚之婚生子女數方面,則以線性迴歸分析,檢視不同婚姻型態、地區別、出生序別、和社經地位對婚生子女數的影響。社經地位與出生序別會直接影響男性是否結婚:中社經地位相較於低社經地位較易結婚;長子相較於出生序別第三、四或以上的男性或非婚生子,其結婚的可能性較高。本研究結果發現:(1)社經地位與出生序別會直接影響男性是否結婚。(2)社經地位在四個研究區中均不直接影響婚姻型態,而出生序別則會直接影響招贅婚之採行,即長子相較其它出生序別之男性行招贅婚的可能性相當低,而次子、其它出生序別及非婚生子則採行招贅婚的可能性較高。(3)社經地位與出生序對生育子女數並未顯現直接效應。婚姻類型與生育子女數則有直接關係。(4)出生排序對生育子女數的影響是間接的,即藉由婚姻類型中介而影響。
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationships between sibling order, SES, marriage, and fertility in Chu-shan Hokkien communities, E-mei Hakka communities, Chu-pei Hokkien communities, and Chu-pei Hakka communities based on the data of household registers during Japanese colonial period. Logistic regression models were adopted to examine the effects of different areas, SES and sibling on the first marriage and marriage patterns whereas multiple regression models were applied to explore the influence of four different areas, varied marriage patterns, sibling order, and SES on the number of legitimated children. Among four research areas, the findings were shown (1) SES and sibling order both had direct effects on whether a man married or not; (2) SES did not demonstrate the effect on marriage patterns, but sibling order did. Relative the first son, sons of the other sibling order had higher odds to marry uxorilocally; (3) SES and sibling order did not express significant effects on the number of legitimated children; (4) The influence of sibling on the number of legitimated children might be indirectly through the different marriage patterns.

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勞動遷徙 ; 鄉村工業化 ; 經濟結構 ; Labor migration ; Rural industrialization ; Economic structure
中文摘要
戰後台灣的經濟結構,從農業生產快速地轉變成以工業生產為主。其中,鄉村工業的興起是國家經濟發展過程重要的一環,一連串的經濟結構變遷不免影響農業地區人力資源的運用。勞動遷徙是人力資源運用方式之一,而家庭是農業社會中基本的生產與消費單元,本研究討論在不同的經濟結構下,家庭內部因素(特別是,家庭成員對農地與地區內工作機會之可及性)如何影響早期台灣農村社會的「勞動遷徙」現象。
結果顯示,經濟結構的改變對「勞動遷徙」現象影響甚鉅,家庭內部因素與家庭勞動移民人數的關聯性主要受制於經濟結構。隨著經濟結構的改變而興起的鄉村工業發展,造成農業生產與非農業生產的工作機會同時存在於鄉村地區,進而促使農村居民改變其人力資源運用方式。特別是,因非農業工作機會提高,農村居民實踐「勞動遷徙」的必要性因而降低,造成「離農不離村」的現象。
Abstract
The postwar Taiwan rapidly shifted from an agriculture-based economy to an industry-based one. This economic development redefined its position in the world economic system. The national economic development accompanied the development of rural industry. The purpose of this research is to examine how the changes of economic structure influenced the strategies of utilizing human resource in rural areas. Labor migration was the major part of the strategies for utilizing human resources. Therefore, this research focuses on the relationship between the changes of economic structure and labor migration.
The research is based on the data collected by B. Gallin and R. S. Gallin in the mid-1960s and the late-1970s from an agrarian village in central Taiwan. The research adopts the family perspective, which suggests that the strategy of utilizing human resources is a part of family sustenance strategies. To face the changes of economic structure, rural villagers develop new strategies of utilizing human resources to ensure the balance between the needs of labor input and family consumption.
The results show the strong relationships between the changes of economic structures and labor migration. Although in the late-1970s, larger families had more labor migrants than other types of families, facing the increases of rural industrial jobs, villagers developed new strategies for utilizing human resources. While some villagers still decided to migrate to cities, the development of rural industry increased the villagers’ possibilities of obtaining nonfarming jobs and farming family land simultaneously. Meanwhile, land-holdings generally were not related to labor migration. This means that during the mid-1960s and the late-1970s, land-holdings did not influence how families developed their strategies for utilizing family human resources.

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落地後遷移 ; 移民 ; 加拿大 ; 移民類型 ; 教育程度 ; post-landing migration ; immigrants ; Canada ; immigration class ; educational attainment
中文摘要
基於IMDB數據(由加拿大統計局連接移民的落地記錄和報稅記錄生成的數據系統),這篇論文研究了加拿大移民在落地後三年內(即從1980-83年至1992-95年)的省間遷移。我們的主要結論如下:
比起加拿大本地人(the Canada-born)和在加拿大居住了5年以上的移民,加拿大的新移民更傾向於在落地後不久做長距離的遷移。他們落地後的省間遷移使得移民人口更加集聚在安大略省(Ontario)和不列顛哥倫比亞省(British Columbia),而這兩個省在移民落地的時候就已經擁有了超過它們合理份額的移民。這種遷移模式與這兩個省擁有較強的經濟,龐大的移民社區及主要的國際機場有關。移民的進一步聚集是有問題的,因為這樣會削弱經濟弱省的政治力量。
對於不同的移民類型,投資移民,企業家移民和難民比家庭團聚型移民和受援助親屬型移民有更強的省間淨遷移。這一點暗示了移民計劃的修改(即把年度移民接納總量合理分配至不同的移民類型)可以減弱省間淨遷移的強度。然而由於所有類型的移民有著同樣的淨遷移模式,這種對移民計劃的修改並不能逆轉移民在安大略省和不列顛哥倫比亞省的進一步聚集。
新移民在省間遷移中顯示出較弱並有些不規則的教育程度選擇性,這點不同於加拿大本地人。本地人在省間遷移中很強的教育選擇性造成了經濟弱省在人力資源數量和質量上的損失。雖然我們的研究結果暗示新移民落地後的遷移(比本地人的省間遷移)對經濟弱省的人力資源的質量危害較小,我們預測隨著移民在加拿大居住時間的增長,移民在教育程度選擇性上會變得更像本地人。
如果安大略和不列顛哥倫比亞與經濟弱省間的持續的巨大的經濟差異不能夠顯著地減小的話,美國移民在1995-2000年州間遷移中顯示出的普遍的分散模式並不能預示加拿大移民的遷移模式會有所逆轉。擁有著強大經濟基礎的阿爾伯塔省(Alberta)是唯一一個有可能從一個移民的淨失者變為長期的淨得者的省份。
Abstract
Based on the tabulations of the IMDB (a data system created by Statistics Canada by linking the landing records and income tax records of immigrants), this paper studies the post-landing interprovincial migration of the immigrants in Canada during all threeyear periods from 1980-83 to 1992-95. Our main findings are as follows:
Newly landed immigrants in Canada were much more prone to making long-distance migration soon after landing than were Canadian-born individuals and immigrants who had resided in Canada for five or more years. Their post-landing migration led to a further concentration of the immigrant population in Ontario and British Columbia which already had more than their “fair”shares of immigrants at the time of landing. Underlying this pattern of net transfer was the fact that each of these two provinces had a relatively strong economy, large immigrant communities, and a major international airport. This further concentration of the relocating immigrants is considered to be problematic in the sense that it contributed to the weakening of the political powers of the economically weak provinces.
With respect to immigration classes, the interprovincial net transfer was much stronger for those in the investor, entrepreneur, and refugee classes than for those in the family and assisted relatives classes. This finding suggests that the intensity of the net transfer can be reduced by a modification of the immigration plan which allocates the annual total intake of immigrants to different immigration classes. But, since all immigration classes shared the same spatial pattern of net transfer, such a change in the immigration plan can not reverse the further concentration in Ontario and British Columbia.
Unlike the very strong educational selectivity in the interprovincial migration of the Canadian-born that resulted in not only a net loss of migrants but also a decrease in the quality of human resources in the economically weak provinces, the educational selectivity in the interprovincial migration of the new immigrants within the first three years after landing turned out to be rather weak and somewhat irregular. Although this finding suggests that the post-landing migration of the immigrants was less detrimental to the quality of the human resources of the economically weak provinces than was the interprovincial migration of the Canadianborn, we expect that as the immigrants stay longer in Canada, the educational selectivity in the internal migration of the immigrants would become more similar to that of the Canadian-born.
The deconcentration and widespread dispersal in the 1995-2000 interstate migration of the immigrants in the United States can not serve as a harbinger for a general reversal in the interprovincial migration of immigrants in Canada, unless the persistently large gap in economic opportunities between Ontario and British Columbia on the one hand and the economically weak provinces on the other can be significantly reduced. With a strong economic base, Alberta is the only province that is likely to change from a net loser to a long-term net gainer of relocating immigrants.