第三十五期人口學刊2007.12 出刊


本期目錄
Contents


研究論文

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marriage ; kinship ; proportional hazards model ; 婚姻 ; 親族 ; 比例危險率模型
Abstract
The important effects of kinship on marital relationships have long been examined in depth and thoroughly documented by sociologists; but little evidence has been reported in the literature on economics. This study explores the kinship-related factors that influence the stability of marriage, with a particular focus on the unique characteristics and long-standing traditions of Chinese society. One important finding is that women's traditional functions and kinship network are the main determinants of the marriage outcome of older couples, whereas preconceived notions of family and kinship play a significant role in the success or failure of marriage for younger couples.
中文摘要
社會學家們對於親族在婚姻關係中的重要影響力,已有相當深入且豐富的研究,然而,在經濟學的文獻中,卻少有以嚴謹的計量方法針對這個部分所進行的實證分析。本文探討婚姻的延續與穩定性如何受到親族相關因素的影響,尤其強調在中國傳統文化中,與西方社會不同的獨特因素,對於離婚機率的影響是否顯著。實證研究發現,親族之間的互動關係與婦女是否符合社會傳統期待等等行為變數是影響老世代婚姻期間長度的主要因素;相反的,婚育態度與家庭價值,則在年輕世代的婚姻關係中,扮演著相當重要的角色。

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new immigrant ; clustering ; 新移民 ; 群聚
Abstract
This paper explores an emerging common phenomenon of new immigrant groups clustering in suburban areas. We argue that the households of new immigrant groups are concerned with neighborhood safety. They are attracted to suburban neighborhoods which generally have lower crime rates. Since suburban neighborhoods have become more heterogeneous, households of new immigrant groups can look for safer neighborhoods in the suburbs without necessarily paying a higher housing cost than they would reside in the central city or in other neighborhoods in the same suburban context. With such budget constraints, only a limited number of suburban neighborhoods are available. Subsequently, these households spatially cluster in suburban areas. The 1996 Toronto census data in general confirms this picture.
中文摘要
本文著重於探索新移民落戶並群聚於郊區的新興現象。由於郊區通常具有較低的犯罪率,我們認為新移民會因為安全的顧慮而選擇居住在郊區。由於郊區的異質化發展,新移民可從中尋找到較安全的鄰里,卻又不需負擔像居住在市中心或一般郊區裡較昂貴的房地費用。不過,在有限的預算限制下,也只有部分的郊區鄰里可供新移民選擇,進而形成新移民家戶在郊區的空間群聚現象。本文即利用1996年多倫多的人口普查資料證明上述的新移民居住群聚模式。

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社會排除 ; 多重弱勢 ; 獨居老人 ; social exclusion ; multi-disadvantages ; elderly people living alone
中文摘要
本文使用2002年社會變遷基本調查第四期第三次資料進行社會排除之多重弱勢估算,從所得、就業、社會互動/參與、政治參與、健康與社會支持網絡等六個面向來檢視台灣的多面向弱勢情況。主要研究發現有三:第一、狹義的、同時兼有三面向以上弱勢者佔4.5%,具有三面向以上弱勢者,在人口社會特性上,呈現出以低教育、非典型婚姻狀況者(離婚、同居、分居)、高齡者為較高的風險群。第二、在各弱勢面向與多重弱勢的形成關連中,低所得及無社會支持網絡是六種面向中易出現、且與其他弱勢面向間有較高比例的共同存在,而宜視為最重要的弱勢面向。第三、利用對應分析發現三群組的多重弱勢類型群聚,研究者命名為:類傳統貧窮的多重弱勢、以無工作為核心的多重弱勢、以無政治參與為核心的自我排除。本文亦對推算多重弱勢方法的合宜性進行探討,指出:西方學者學習於使用的、利用多重弱勢方法而描繪社會排除圖像的方法並不合宜,主要的限制有三:第一、利用多重弱勢概念作為社會排除的操作化尚且無法表達累積、動態性及制度作用等社會排除的核心意義。其次,在資料上,因受限於資料庫,而往往無法探討多年期弱勢,又無法將理論概念所必須納入的弱勢項目與面向納入。第三、利用多重弱勢重疊的方法,在資料處理上易自陷於交集限制,而造成統計數字上的假象。最後,本文作者建議後續研究宜朝向可以呈現弱勢累積歷程的個案研究發展。
Abstract
Social exclusion has been defined as possible combinations of at least three of the following six disadvantages: low income, unemployment, lack of social interaction, inactive political participation, lack of social-support relationship, and ill health. This paper studies the social-excluded population of Taiwan, first by employing the Database of Taiwan Social Change Surrey (TSCS/2002) to estimate their number. The study has three main findings. First, the severely disadvantaged group, characterized by having at least three disadvantages out of the six, is about 4.5% of Taiwan's population second, the disadvantages of low income and a lack of social support relationship are the two decisive dimensions of the six in forming the severely disadvantage group. And third, the current findings show that the demographic characteristic of the severely disadvantaged group are the relatively uneducated, the unmarried, and the elderly. By multiple correspondence analysis, three clusters of disadvantaged groups are identified: the poverty-extended, the unemployment- marginalized, and the self-excluded.
In addition to estimating the unmber of the multi-disadvantaged in Taiwan, the author reflects upon the shortcomings of methods employed in this and related studies. There are two reasons to explain why the databases employed in related researches are not suitable for the thematic definition and concepts. First, the concepts and dynamics of social exclusion are too complicated to be reduced into exact operational definition. The so-called multi-disadvantages method, which employs intersected selection, can easily result in fallacious statistics. Finally, it is suggested that other method, such as life course case studies, might get closer to the reality of social exclusion and multi-disadvantages.

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Taiwan ; self-rated health ; mortality ; ethnicity ; health trajectory ; elderly ; 台灣 ; 自評健康 ; 存活分析 ; 族群 ; 健康軌跡 ; 老人
Abstract
This study seeks to compare health trajectories across the two major ethnic groups of the elderly in Taiwan, the Taiwanese and the Mainlanders, over 11 years of follow-up. This ethnic division is considered a salient dimension of social stratification in Taiwan, shaping the two groups of elders' pathways through life. Data are from the first four waves of the Taiwan Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly (N=3,540). Proportional hazard models with time-dependent covariates and multinomial logistic regression were employed to compare health trajectories across ethnicity. There are three major findings. (1) Self-rated health is shown to be a remarkably strong predictor of mortality despite controlling for other variables, which is consistent with the bulk of studies in this area. (2) By using a national representative sample of the elderly in Taiwan and treating self-rated health as a time-dependent covariate, evidence from this study reveals that self-rated health reflects a person's health trajectory. (3) Considerable differences exist in the ways socio-structural forces are related to the health trajectories of Mainlanders and Taiwanese, respectively, over the 11 years of follow-up. In conclusion, it seems that, among this elderly population, the ethnic inequality in health can be explained away by Mainlanders' higher socio-economic standing, which is different from the racial/ethnic health disparities observed in the United States, where social class accounts for part of the differences, but the health disparities between African Americans and whites remain after adjusting for measures of social class.
中文摘要
在台灣的老年人口當中,本省籍與外省籍之間的族群差異是台灣社會階層化的重要面向之一。本研究從生命歷程的觀點出發,利用國民健康局的「台灣老人生活與保健調查」1989到1999年的貫時性調查資料(N=3540),實證地檢視自評健康的變化軌跡與存活狀況之間的關係。主要的發現有:與大部份老年學的相關文獻一致,自評健康與存活狀況之間存在有很強的相關;在以時間相依(Time-dependent)的自評健康測量進行存活分析時發現,自評健康的變化確實反映受訪老人的健康軌跡;研究結果也發現社會結構變項與不同的健康軌跡型態之間有不同的關聯。就族群間的健康差異而言,本研究結果指出,不同於美國社會黑白之間的族群差異,台灣老年人口中的族群差異似乎可以完全被社經地位變項所解釋(外省籍老人的平均社經地位測量優於本省籍老人)。

研究紀要

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人口轉變 ; 生育文化 ; 小傳統生育文化 ; 村落 ; demographic transition ; fertility culture ; little traditional fertility culture ; village
中文摘要
存在於基層社區的「小傳統生育文化」應該成為研究當代生育文化演變的邏輯起點。實證研究發現,解放前東村的「小傳統生育文化」有如下特徵:(一)重生育、重生男;(二)比較重視多生,但並不認為孩子越多越好,村民理想的子女數量結構是二男二女或三男兩女,至少也要二男一女;(三)重多生,但不重視優生優育,子女教育存在嚴重的男性偏重;(四)在婚育年齡方面表現出很不正常的早婚早育傾向,娃娃親比較普遍。本研究可以增進對傳統生育文化的認識,啟發重新思考計劃生育政策的作用,或許會改變人們對中國人口轉變過程的一般認識。
Abstract
”The little traditional fertility culture” is the logical starting point for an up-to-date study on fertility culture change. Through the experimental study on the fertility culture in a village before the establishment of the People's Republic of China, some differences come up between ”the big traditional fertility” and ”the little traditional fertility culture”, such as: (1) it has supreme value for family to birth boys; (2) the villagers generally disagreed with the common saying of ”the more births, the better” and instead desired birth control (3) the villagers' average ages of marriage and of onset of fertility were abnormally young. This study increases the knowledge of traditional fertility culture and may prompt a reevalution of both the effectiveness of birth control policies and standard thinking about China's demographic transition.