Using data from the Soochow University Shihlin Socio-Geo-Humanistic Survey conducted during September and October of 2002, this study examines the impacts of socio-spatial factors on residents' attachment to community. Community attachment is measured in terms of residents' affective commitment to the local community and their participation in local community activities.
Results of the analysis show that social factors, such as long-term residents who own their home or know many neighbors and spatial factors, such as having larger neighborhood parks or readily available eating places within walking distance of residents' homes, are significant contributing factors for residents to develop and to have a stronger attachment to their community, especially in terms of affective commitment to the local community.

本文運用社會調查與地理資訊資料，檢視社會－空間因素如何影響居民的社區依附。這項調查資料係由東吳大學人文社會實驗室於2002年9至10月在士林地區，針對當地居民，以面對面問卷調查方式蒐集得到的。社區依附分為兩個測量指標：居民對於社區的情感投入程度以及居民對於社區活動的參與程度。研究結果顯示：長久居住、擁有自宅以及鄰居認識越多等社會因素以及住家附近有公園等公共空間或餐廳、小吃店等良好的生活機能都有助於提高居民的社區依附；比較而言，這些社會－空間因素對於「情感投入程度」的解釋力高於對「活動參與程度」的解釋力。

台灣總生育率(TFR)的持續下跌引發眾多討論，TFR為一種估計測量，容易受婦女生育的數量(quantum)與步調（tempo，又稱生育的時間效果）之變化而影響，由於許多國家調查的「理想子女數」仍保持在兩名水準，但是TFR卻遠低於替換水準，Bongaarts and Fenny (1998)認為這是生育步調延後所致，婦女實際的生育水準不若觀察值那樣低。不少學者提出調整方法，希望降低婦女生育步調的影響，以獲得實際的生育水準，其中，Bongaarts等人提出的B-F法運用最為廣泛，然而，B-F法只是去除生育時間效果後的總生育率調整值，依舊無法代表實際生育水準，必須以其他方法來探討女性的生育水準。我們藉由Schoen (2004)的ACF法來調整TFR，只是ACF法得待所有婦女完成生育方能運用，本文乃透過Li and Wu (2003)建議的SVD模型推估未完成生育之年輪未來的生育率。本文使用B-F法與ACF法來調整1980年至2005年台灣的TFR，經過比較，ACF法的結果比B-F法之估計更加接近CFR，二種結果都指出目前台灣婦女之生育水準仍高於千分之1300（2005年B-F法之結果為千分之1545，ACF法的結果為千分之1399），調整值雖未落入「超低生育水準(lowest-low)」，但也不若「理想子女數」高。

The TFR in Taiwan has declined more rapidly and pervasively than was expected. The TFR is a hypothetical measure, which can be influenced by two distinct parts: a 'quantum' component and a 'tempo' component. 'Many countries' 'desired children number' is kept at 2, but the TFR is far below 2. Bongaarts and Fenny criticized the TFR due to the changes in the timing of childbearing. Therefore, they announced the B-F method to shed the timing effect in order to more reliably capture fertility. However the tempo-free TFR method still can't represent the reality of fertility; we have to make use of other measures. We employed Li and Wu's SVD model and Schoen's ACF method to adjust the 1980-2005 TFR in Taiwan. The output of the ACF method was closer to the CFR. Both findings of the B-F method and ACF measure indicated that the TFR in Taiwan was above 1.3, the lowest-low fertility level. But the adjusted TFRs still did not reach 2.

人口推估(Population Projection)涉及國家的政策及規劃，精確的結果可協助國家適時制訂政策，提高國民福祉。臺灣現在使用的方法為人口變動要素合成法(The Cohort Component Method)，可歸類為情境推估(Scenario Forecast)的一種，作法是在參酌專家意見之後，以決定性模型(Deterministic Model)的方式，提供未來生育、死亡、遷移三要素的變動範圍。除了情境推估外，近年為了決定三要素的未來趨勢而發展出三種新的隨機方法：一為隨機推估(Stochastic Forecast)、一為模擬情境(Random Scenario Method)、一為推估誤差(ex post Method)。近十餘年美國及聯合國的推估仍以人口變動要素合成法為主，但未來生育、死亡、遷移趨勢的決定，隨機方法的使用比例逐漸增加。
為探討隨機方法的實用性，本文使用區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)電腦模擬，代入生育、死亡、遷移變化不盡相同的臺灣、美國、日本、法國四國資料，以交叉驗證評估隨機方法的限制，並探討如何修正既有方法。另外，由於缺乏機率詮釋是傳統專家意見的缺點之一，本文採用Stoto (1983)提出的推估誤差法，給予區塊拔靴法和人力規劃處的推估在機率上的詮釋，彌補傳統情境推估的缺點，以提供使用專家意見與隨機方法的參考。研究發現區塊拔靴法在未來變化類似過去趨勢時，穩定性及準確性都相當不錯；傳統依賴專家意見的高、中、低三種推計，藉由推估誤差法發現高、低推計接近68%的預測區間，區塊拔靴法的推估也有類似的詮釋。

Population Projection is essential to policy planning, especially to social welfare. The cohort component method is the most popular method for population projection. The future trends of fertility, mortality, and immigration are often determined by the experts' opinions, which are also known as scenario forecasts, and then plugged into the cohort component method. However, the projections derived via the experts' opinions are deterministic and do not have implications in probability. To let the population projections possess the meaning of probability by renovating the scenario forecasts, researchers have developed three types of probabilistic forecasting methods, including the stochastic forecast method, random scenario method, and ex post method.
In this paper, we study the block bootstrap method, a computer simulation method and also a stochastic forecast method, and evaluate the possibility of applying this method in population projection. Specifically, employing data from Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and France, we use cross-validation and computer simulation to explore the limitations of the block bootstrap, and check if this method can produce reasonable projections. Based on the empirical results, we found that the block bootstrap is a feasible method and can produce stable population projections. In addition, we also study the ex post method proposed by Stoto (1983) and give the probability implications to projections from the Council for Economic Planning and Development (a scenario forecast).

This study investigates adaptations and self-identities of young return migrants from Australia to Taiwan, employing a semi-structured questionnaire to interview 22 young Taiwanese migrants who emigrated at young ages with their parents to Australia and have returned. It was found that these young returnees came back mainly to look for better career opportunities. However, the chance of reunions with their families in Taiwan, the search for potential spouses, and their affection towards Taiwan were also important factors leading to their reverse migration. The young returnees' different experiences in the two societies of Taiwan and Australia mean that they had to adapt to various aspects of their environments with deliberate effort. Meanwhile, they have developed a dual identity that encompasses Taiwanese and Australian cultures, through which they strive to make the best use of their backgrounds in the global community. Not only do the young return migrants fulfill the hopes of their parents of middleclass background, but should arouse more attention from the Australian and Taiwan governments in incorporating them as important human resources in their respective societies.

近年來，台灣移民自澳洲回流的人數持續增加中，其主要原因是希望能回台就業或創業。本研究的目的即在探討這些當初隨父母移出的年輕移民，長大後回流台灣的原因，以及他們在澳洲和台灣社會之間的適應情形與自我認同。研究的進行採取質性研究方法，藉由滾雪球的抽樣方法，深度訪談22位在台北就業的年輕回流移民。本研究發現：年輕移民們自澳洲回流台灣主要是為了尋求更好的工作機會及發展，而並非因為不能適應澳洲或找不到工作。此外，回台與家人團聚、接掌家中事業、尋找結婚對象及對台灣的情感等因素，也影響他們回流台灣的意願。年輕回流移民在台灣與澳洲社會不同文化的經驗下，必須面臨因環境轉換而產生的適應問題，諸如環境、語言、家庭關係、人際網絡、文化與生活方式等。他們的自我認同亦產生矛盾而傾向於雙邊認同。年輕回流移民們對未來事業的規畫，呈現一種跨國性的事業版圖，在全球化的趨勢下，尋求最有利的發展空間。這些優秀的回流移民，不只是應驗了台灣中產階級社會父母親的期待，更應受到台灣及澳洲政府對人才流動更多的關注。