No. 36, Journal of Population StudiesPublished: 2008.06


Contents


Research Articles

DOI : 10.6191/jps.2008.1


social factors ; spatial factors ; community attachment ; affective commitment ; participation in community activities
Abstract
Using data from the Soochow University Shihlin Socio-Geo-Humanistic Survey conducted during September and October of 2002, this study examines the impacts of socio-spatial factors on residents' attachment to community. Community attachment is measured in terms of residents' affective commitment to the local community and their participation in local community activities.
Results of the analysis show that social factors, such as long-term residents who own their home or know many neighbors and spatial factors, such as having larger neighborhood parks or readily available eating places within walking distance of residents' homes, are significant contributing factors for residents to develop and to have a stronger attachment to their community, especially in terms of affective commitment to the local community.

DOI : 10.6191/jps.2008.2


TFR ; tempo effect ; B-F method ; SVD model ; ACF measure
Abstract
The TFR in Taiwan has declined more rapidly and pervasively than was expected. The TFR is a hypothetical measure, which can be influenced by two distinct parts: a 'quantum' component and a 'tempo' component. 'Many countries' 'desired children number' is kept at 2, but the TFR is far below 2. Bongaarts and Fenny criticized the TFR due to the changes in the timing of childbearing. Therefore, they announced the B-F method to shed the timing effect in order to more reliably capture fertility. However the tempo-free TFR method still can't represent the reality of fertility; we have to make use of other measures. We employed Li and Wu's SVD model and Schoen's ACF method to adjust the 1980-2005 TFR in Taiwan. The output of the ACF method was closer to the CFR. Both findings of the B-F method and ACF measure indicated that the TFR in Taiwan was above 1.3, the lowest-low fertility level. But the adjusted TFRs still did not reach 2.

DOI : 10.6191/jps.2008.3


population projection ; cohort component method ; block bootstrap ; forecast ; computer simulation
Abstract
Population Projection is essential to policy planning, especially to social welfare. The cohort component method is the most popular method for population projection. The future trends of fertility, mortality, and immigration are often determined by the experts' opinions, which are also known as scenario forecasts, and then plugged into the cohort component method. However, the projections derived via the experts' opinions are deterministic and do not have implications in probability. To let the population projections possess the meaning of probability by renovating the scenario forecasts, researchers have developed three types of probabilistic forecasting methods, including the stochastic forecast method, random scenario method, and ex post method.
In this paper, we study the block bootstrap method, a computer simulation method and also a stochastic forecast method, and evaluate the possibility of applying this method in population projection. Specifically, employing data from Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and France, we use cross-validation and computer simulation to explore the limitations of the block bootstrap, and check if this method can produce reasonable projections. Based on the empirical results, we found that the block bootstrap is a feasible method and can produce stable population projections. In addition, we also study the ex post method proposed by Stoto (1983) and give the probability implications to projections from the Council for Economic Planning and Development (a scenario forecast).

DOI : 10.6191/jps.2008.4


Taiwanese young return migrants ; adaptation ; dual identity ; transnational experience ; Australia
Abstract
This study investigates adaptations and self-identities of young return migrants from Australia to Taiwan, employing a semi-structured questionnaire to interview 22 young Taiwanese migrants who emigrated at young ages with their parents to Australia and have returned. It was found that these young returnees came back mainly to look for better career opportunities. However, the chance of reunions with their families in Taiwan, the search for potential spouses, and their affection towards Taiwan were also important factors leading to their reverse migration. The young returnees' different experiences in the two societies of Taiwan and Australia mean that they had to adapt to various aspects of their environments with deliberate effort. Meanwhile, they have developed a dual identity that encompasses Taiwanese and Australian cultures, through which they strive to make the best use of their backgrounds in the global community. Not only do the young return migrants fulfill the hopes of their parents of middleclass background, but should arouse more attention from the Australian and Taiwan governments in incorporating them as important human resources in their respective societies.