The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the difference between the expected and realized migration flow after the Shea-San tunnel's opening on national highway 5. This paper firstly supplements the cross-region assessment of the domestic type V population movement with the related foreign relocation experiences. A precedent for the type V conceptual frameworks is reassessed as another mixed type U construct in embeddedness with the weighted data of net migration based on exponential smoothing estimation. Our quantitative and smoothing results afford the expected outcome of the type V move to improve the unmeasured state. Finally, the realized type L relocation behavior amended by the current data is offered to reexamine the above mixed-method approaches, aiming at reaction to the stress of contingent events and the move for sluggish adjustment.

The population in Taiwan has already undergone a demographic transition, entering a period with a low birth rate and low death rate, while population migration patterns have also been changing at the same time. Zelinsky (1971) integrated and defined the relationship of economic development, modernization, vital transition, and migration, and arrived at a model of migration known as ”mobility transition.” Hsung (1987), Bain (1991), and Chen (1991) indicate that the higher the economic development level, the higher the in-migration rate, and they believe that the socioeconomic development and the migration pattern of the population of Taiwan corresponds to that proposed in the Zelinsky model, stating that the 80s was the third stage ”late transitional society;” however, they also find that the development of ”demographic transition” and ”mobility transition” are not closely parallel in Taiwan. Will the development of population migration in Taiwan keep on following Zelinsky's idea? Since the viewpoints of Zelinsky (1971) were just the conclusion based on his observation, we used Jones' idea (2005) instead to discuss whether the population in Taiwan corresponds to the ”mobility transition” model of development or not. First of all, the study method of Bain (1991) was adjusted, and cluster analysis was used to divide all cities and counties into six regions. The population migration situations of 1980, 1992, 2002, and 2007 were calculated and examined for agreement with Jones' idea (2005). The results showed that while both the natural increase rate and the territory migration rate keep on decreasing, Taiwan developed into the fourth stage of transition at the beginning of the 90s. At the same time, ”demographic transition” and ”mobility transition” also corresponded to the development. However, the actual migration progress does not follow the development proposed by Zelinsky (1971) and Jones (2005), mainly because the major migration direction of Taiwan's population is still toward the northern part, as the cities and counties with rather advanced social and economic development are also concentrated in Northern Taiwan; thus, the population is continuously motivated to migrate to Northern Taiwan. The increase of population also promotes social and economic development. Through the mutual influence of society, economy, and migration, Taoyuan County, Keelung City, and New Taipei City also continue to develop in addition to Taipei City; thus, the population of Taiwan is unlikely to be evenly distributed in the future.

The population size plays a very important role in statistical estimation, and it is difficult to derive a reliable estimate for small areas. The estimation is even more difficult if the geographic and social attributes within the small areas vary widely. However, although population aging is a common phenomenon globally, the problem is not the same for different countries. The aim of this study is to explore the mortality projection for small areas, with the consideration of the small area's distinguishing characteristics. In addition to data quality, the difficulties for small area population and mortality projection are threefold: population size, number of base years, and projection horizon. Smoothing methods can be applied to improve the stability and accuracy of small area estimation. In this study, the block bootstrap and smoothing methods are combined to project the mortality of small areas in Taiwan, using the cohort component method. We found that the smoothing methods can reduce the fluctuation of estimates and projections in general, and the improvement is especially noticeable for areas with smaller population sizes. To obtain a reliable mortality projection for small areas, we suggest using at least fifteen years of historical data for projection and a projection horizon of not more than twenty years. Also, the population size has a bigger influence than the discrepancy of mortality rates between small and large areas.

Identification and implementation of filial piety differ from each other, as the former is a psychological issue and the latter is a behavioral one. This study examines whether a higher level of identification with filial piety concepts by both generations significantly increases the propensity toward coresidence using PSFD (Panel Study of Family Dynamics) data. Considering that elderly parents may participate in the co-residence decision, we adopt not only a conventional univariate probit model but also a bivariate probit model with partial observability to explain the nuclearization of the family structure in modern Taiwan. Our empirical results show that filial piety is not diminishing in Taiwan's society, and that the strength of filial norms has a positive impact on adult sons' propensity to live with their parents.

No abstract available.