臺灣的教育機會競爭激烈性與教育世代的出生規模有關嗎？其關係是否與教育制度變革有所關聯呢？為了回答這兩個研究問題，本研究探討臺灣1940-1992年間，同一年出生者（即同一個出生世代）在教育歷程中的教育機會競爭激烈性之變化，並分析出生世代規模對其不同教育進階的教育機會競爭激烈性之影響。同時，探究出生世代規模對其教育機會競爭激烈性的影響，如何因不同的教育制度變革而變化。分析資料為1940-1992年共53個單年出生世代的世代規模，以及其三個教育進階（國初中進階、高中進階和大專進階）的教育機會競爭激烈性和世代所經歷的教育制度變革等變項。以多層次成長曲線模型分析每個出生世代在不同教育進階的教育機會競爭激烈性。分析結果顯示：同時考慮世代規模與教育制度變革對教育機會競爭激烈性的影響時，世代規模對於國（初）中進階教育競爭激烈性為負向的影響，對於高中進階教育競爭激烈性沒有影響，然而，世代規模愈大，則其大專進階教育競爭激烈性愈高。另外，出生世代規模對其各教育進階教育機會競爭激烈性的影響效應，的確因出生世代所經歷的教育制度變革而有所不同。換言之，臺灣教育制度變革的確調節了出生世代規模，對於教育機會競爭激烈性的影響效應。

This paper explores the trend of educational opportunity competition at different educational levels over different birth cohorts, examines the effect of cohort size on the competition for educational opportunity at different educational level, and tests whether the effect of cohort size on competition for educational opportunity differs by educational reform stages. With data from Education Statistics of the Republic of China, 1958-2010, a multilevel growth curve analysis is employed to analyze the relationships between birth cohort size and competition for educational opportunity at different educational levels, and to assess whether its relationship changes across educational reform stages. The results reveal that birth cohort size has a negative effect on the competition for educational opportunity at the junior high school level, no significant effect at the senior high school level, and a positive effect at the college level when holding the effect of educational reform constant. Moreover, the effect of birth cohort size on the competition for educational opportunity differs by the stage for educational reform. In other words, educational reform does moderate the magnitude of the effect of cohort size on the competition for educational opportunity.

人口推估通常使用人口變動要素合成法，通常根據現有人口總數及結構，加上對未來生育、死亡、遷移三要素的預期（或情境），推估未來的人口數及其結構；三要素中的生育和遷移變動趨勢較大，較不容易以歷史資料找出趨勢，大多倚賴專家訂定情境假設。但專家意見也有蒐集上的疑慮，例如意見沒有固定的形成格式，推估結果也難以機率角度詮釋發生可能性。為了彌補專家意見的不足，近年不少國家的人口推估使用隨機方法（stochastic methods），這些方法大多與專家意見組合使用，使得推估結果可兼具兩種方法的特色。

Population projections are important in estimating the population for future dates used by the government for policy planning. The cohort component method is the most popular population projection method, and requires information on future fertility, mortality, and migration. These three factors are usually decided by expert opinions as well as historical data. However, there are concerns in using expert opinions. For example, it is not easy to quantify the expert opinions, the expert opinions do not have the meaning in probability, and the projection results based on expert opinion usually have small variance. In recent years, stochastic methods combined with expert opinions have been widely applied in order to improve the quality of population projections. The data format of quantification also plays a crucial role in quantifying the expert opinion, and in this study we explore the estimation methods for various data formats. We first review some popular methods for quantifying expert opinions, including the focused group interview and Delphi method. Then, we use computer simulation to evaluate the influence of data format on the analysis methods. It seems that, if the expert opinion is quantified in the form of payment card or binary data, the results are not very reliable. Therefore, we propose a sequential design to collect expert opinion and the simulation study shows promising results.

本文所探討的是工作、求學、或家庭因素遷移到新加坡及香港的臺灣年輕人。以2011-2014年在新加坡、香港及臺灣所進行的40個深度訪談為基礎，進一步獲得對受訪者及當地環境的詳細資訊與深入瞭解。本文首先回顧年輕移民、青年人才、及從臺灣移出的1.5代移民的相關文獻，隨後，本文將新加坡與香港的臺灣年輕人依以下幾個重點分類，並且進行訪談分析：（1）遷移到新加坡或香港的原因、（2）移動類型與移動軌跡、（3）社會與文化適應、（4）返回臺灣的意願。除了更高的薪資與福利之外，新加坡與香港提供給他們的是一個與全球接軌的國際化環境與個人發展的舞臺。然而，居住在新加坡與香港也有一些缺點，例如：語言、氣候、文化差異、生活成本高、生活品質等。這群臺灣年輕人的流動不僅對新加坡與香港所競逐的全球人才有所貢獻，海外的經驗也有助於他們發展適應不同社會文化環境的能力。在這關鍵時刻，臺灣有關招募全球青年人才的政策，仍然處於岌岌可危的情況。我們迫切需要相關政策的制訂，為的是防止接受過良好教育的專業人才離開臺灣，並且透過更完善有效率的政策，吸引這群人才有意願返回臺灣。由於臺灣年輕人在移動上的暫時性質，臺灣政府可以開發這類人力資源，作為競逐全球人才的一種策略，並且作為人口政策與社會轉型的重要一環。

This paper studies young Taiwanese who migrated to Singapore and Hong Kong for work, study or family reasons. It is based mainly on 40 in-depth interviews conducted in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan in 2011-2014, thus obtaining narratives that contain detailed information to render nuanced understanding of the interviewees and the environment. The paper begins with a review of pertinent literature that includes youth migration and global talent, and the 1.5 generation migrants from Taiwan. It is followed by an analysis of major types of young Taiwanese in Singapore and Hong Kong with regard to: (1) their reasons for moving to Singapore or Hong Kong, (2) the types and trajectories of movement, (3) their social and cultural adaptation, and (4) prospects of returning to Taiwan. Apart from the higher pay and fringe benefits, both Singapore and Hong Kong provide them with a cosmopolitan environment for global pursuits to which their education applies. However, there are disadvantages of living in Singapore and Hong Kong, such as climate, social and cultural differences, high cost of living, and quality of life. Being highly educated, they have contributed to the pool of global talents that both states compete for, while gaining overseas experiences in enhancing their skills and exposure to new social and cultural environments. At this juncture, Taiwan's policy to recruit young global talents remains at stake, and the urgent need is to prevent its well educated professionals from leaving, as well as to attract them back with more vigorous and effective polices. Due to the impermanent nature of young Taiwanese on the move, Taiwan may want to tap this human resource as a strategy to compete for global talents, as a critical aspect of population policy and social transformation.

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