第五期人口學刊1981.12 出刊


本期目錄

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中文摘要
西方的模式以及有關都市化的論文都曾被引用來解釋亞洲國家都市的成長情形。本文檢視臺灣的都市化程度、速度及其吸收勞力的情形。臺灣的都市化現象集中在北部地區及幾個大的都市區。在1975年時,有半數的臺灣人口居住在50,000人以上的城市裡,而1964年至1975年間80% 的人口成長發生在都市地區。雖然勞力有快速的成長,大量的勞工還是被都市的各行各業所吸收,基於這種吸收的能力,臺灣還未達到所謂過度都市化的程度,能符合西方的模式。
Abstract
Both the Western model and the urbanization thesis have been used to explain urban growth for the urbanizing countries of Asia. This paper examines levels and rates of urbanization in Taiwan and its ability to absorb a growing labor supply in its urban centers. Urban growth is concentrated in the Northern region and in large urban places. By 1975, half of Taiwan’s population was located in places of 50,000 or more and 80 percent of the total population growth between 1964 and 1975 occurred in urban areas. Despite substantial urban growth and an even more rapid labor force growth, workers were absorbed into “urban” industries and occupations. Based on this ability to absorb, Taiwan does not appear to be overurbanized and seems to fit the Western mode.

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中文摘要
本文旨在探討家庭計畫傳播之主要功能為何?我們想要知道家庭計畫傳播已擔負起改變已婚婦女對家庭計畫的態度或行為?或者是家庭計畫的傳播的功能只限於支持或加強已婚婦女對家庭計畫原有之態度或行為。本文取材自臺灣省衛生處家庭計畫研究所在1972年所做的調查。該調查訪視1,880位18歲至34歲的年輕婦女。而本文分析1,217位已婚婦女之資料。本文採用多元分類法(Multiple Classification Analysis)。分析五大類變數—社會及人口變數、社會氣氛變數、家庭計畫知識變數、家庭計畫態度變數、及家庭計畫行為變數。分析結果顯示,家庭計畫傳播,到目前為止,只扮演加強元的角色。
Abstract
The article discusses the main function of family planning communication. Has family planning communication changed how married females think and act about family planning? Does it only support or reinforce how married females think and act about family planning?
The study is based on the survey done by Family Planning Institute in Taiwan Province in 1972. The survey covers 1,880 females aged 18 to 34, and the article only analyzes data from 1,217 married females.
The article adopts multiple classification analysis to analyze five categories of variables: social and population variable, social atmosphere variable, family planning knowledge variable, family planning attitude variable, and family planning action variable. Results show, so far, family planning communication only serves as an agent of reinforcement.

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中文摘要
本文是以波多黎各1970年的普查資料再次地探討現代化與生育率之間的關係,文中並比較前人就1950年及1960年該國普查資料所做的研究發現。以一中度經濟發展的國家而言,波多黎各顯示出社區的生育率是一社會發展程度及時間的函數,此為本文的重點。研究結果指出從1950年至1970年間教育及工業化對生育率具有直接且漸增的負影響,而收入及工作婦女百分比的影響卻漸減。都市化對生育率的直接影響自1960年後即消失,然而它卻可透過其他的變項發揮其影響力。
Abstract
This paper re-examines the relationship between modernization and fertility based on the 1970 Puerto Rican census data. A comparison of the findings with a previous study of 1950 and 1960 Puerto Rico census is presented. For a society in the midst of economic development such as Puerto Rico, it is proposed that community’s fertility rate is a function of both the general level and timing of societal development. The paper lays its special emphasis on this. The findings indicate that education and industrialization have increased their direct negative influences on fertility from 1950 to 1970 while income and proportion of women working have decreased theirs. Urbanization has lost its direct influence on fertility since 1960 and is distributing its effect indirectly through other variables.

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中文摘要
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Abstract
The paper applies the urban population density function and its derivatives to the analysis of population redistribution in the Taipei metropolitan area during the period of 1962-1979. In the first section, the Taipei metropolitan area defined as composed of the 16 administrative districts of the Taipei City and the 12 townships surrounding the city. The definition is based on an assumption that the population densities of different locales in a metropolitan area are relatively symmetric in a descending order about the center. In the second section, the urban population density function and its derivatives are discussed. It is found that though the urban population density function fits well to the empirical data of the cities, a population growth equation derived from it departs systematically from the historical pattern of differential growth in the metropolitan area. In the third section, with some logarithmic transformation, OLS procedure is applied to yield statistical estimation of the parameters. It is empirically determined that while the density function provides an accurate series of measurement of the extent of suburbanization in the metropolitan area, the growth equation fits rather poorly to the distributions of population growth rates. The Burgess' concentric zone theory as a theory of ecological succession is invoked to render a plausible explanation of the systematic departures of growth equation from the growth rates. A dynamic model of city growth, it is suggested is meaningless without a built-in process of ecological succession.

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中文摘要
本文的主要目的是利用民國六十五年臺灣戶籍登記之361個鄉鎮市區資料,探求育齡婦女分齡生育率的決定因素。分析的理論基礎是建立在新古典經濟理論推展出來的新家計經濟學,並重視人口社會學家對嗜好形成因素的觀點。生育率的解釋變數中有四個是按年齡分組,用以掌握婦女如何在生育與其他活動中分配其一生的時間。為了兼容婦女的市場工作與生育決策間可能有的相互影響,我們以聯立模型作為分析工具。
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Abstract
The main purpose of this study has been to ascertain the determinants of age-specific female fertility rates among Taiwan’s 361 local administrative areas. The New Home Economics derived from Neoclassical economic theories provided models that, modified slightly by the emphasis of the demographers and sociologists on factors formulating tastes, we apply to the 1976 Household Registration Data in Taiwan. In specifying models, we not only include four female age-specific explanatory variables which are crucial to the timing of childbearing and women’s other life-cycle events, but also frame a simultaneous equations system to allow for possible interactions between their fertility behavior and labor supply decisions.

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Abstract
In many countries female participation in the labor force has often been cited as one of the main factors depressing fertility. Previous research findings in Taiwan, however, do not indicate female employment’s negative effect on fertility. This study attempts to clarify the causal relationship between female employment and fertility. The data were obtained from the employment and fertility survey conducted by Executive Yuan in 1979. Real family size, ideal family size and desired family size are used as the indicators of fertility. In the first section the fertility of working women is higher than the fertility of now-working women, but it does not reveal the same result when the degree of urbanization, education and age are controlled. In order to test the hypothesis of the inverse relationship between female labor force participation and fertility, the technique of ANOV and Path Analysis are used in the other sections of this study. Age, education and urbanization of resident are used as exogenous factors. The findings indicate that the working experience of women does not have obvious effect on their real family size, but the nature and/or kind of occupation of working women has direct influence on fertility. Urbanization of resident does not show its direct influence on fertility and distributing its effect indirectly through the occupation of women. Both age and education do have direct and indirect influence on fertility. The conclusion of this research is that the occupation is an important intervening variable on fertility.
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