第六期人口學刊1983.05 出刊


本期目錄

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中文摘要
為探討市內居住人口的移動是依據何種準則,本文以高雄市民國66年戶政資料中住所變更登記抽選600戶加以分析,發現市內居民的遷移結果構成里鄰區域社會特性的分化。分化的準則是依據三個主要向度:社會經濟地位與家庭成長循環期之階段,商業活動,以及區域之便捷性,樣本資料中的遷移者社會經濟特性如同臺灣一般鄉村都市之遷移:男性多於女性,已婚者高於未婚者,尤以25至34歲組之年輕家庭居眾,甚至在教育程度和職業方面也有較高比例來自較高教育與職業階層,尤其是專門性或技術性類職業以及行業分類下從事分配性經濟活動者的比例為高。比較遷移者市內原居地和目的地的區域特性,則發現有相互配合之趨勢,亦即高社會經濟地位之遷移者集中於高社會經濟地位、商業活動,和便捷性之區域,中等社會經濟地位者亦多選擇中等程度之區域,而低等程度者則分散於各地。因此,區域偏好之決定是以區域效用為依據,而其判定因素是區域之社會經濟地位、商業活動和便捷性。
Abstract
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中文摘要
認知架構是否能成為一種衡量態度的準確工具呢?答案的肯定與否取決於認知架構的穩定性。有了穩定性,認知架構才可能是衡量態度的可靠工具。也才可能用來判斷認知架構的變化是否可用來指示態度的變化。本文中,作者依據平衡學理將認知架構界定為一種圖形。在該圖形中,自我、態度目的物,和一群與態度目的物有功能關係的信念或事物呈現一種微妙的平衡狀態。如果“自我”接近“態度目的物”,則顯示該群人採取贊成該“態度目的物”的態度。反之,“自我”遠離“態度目的物”,則表示該群人持反對的態度。在本研究裡,認知架構之測定係藉助於“伽俐略系統”(Galileo System)。“伽俐略系統”基本上是多度空間標示法(Multiple dimensional scaling)之一種分支。它包含一組特殊的測量方法,一種引起不平衡的技巧,以及一系列處理多度空間標示法的電腦程式。本文裡,對“伽俐略系統”的基本程序也作了簡要的介紹。在本文裡,認知架構之穩定性一共從三方面予以檢討。第一是檢討受試者之填答平均數是否穩定。其次是檢討三度空間的認知架構圖之穩定性。最後則檢討十度空間彼此間之相關情形。從以上三種檢討中,我們發現採用“伽俐略系統”所繪製出來的認知架構具有高度穩定性。
Abstract
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中文摘要
本研究報告係根據1978年臺灣北部地區之實地調查資料,對臺灣城、鄉人民有關擇偶方式、結婚年齡、對婚姻之傳統觀念以及父母對其子女婚姻所持態度等方面的異同情形之比較、分析。本研究所用樣本計為都市家庭790戶,農村家庭438戶,共計1228戶。研究結果發現臺灣城、鄉居民在婚姻態度上有許多顯著的差異。農村居民較之都市居民保有更多的傳統的婚姻觀念和習俗。在擇偶過程中,絕大多數的農村家庭,父母均具有很大的影響力,相反的,都市家庭的父母在子女選擇對象的過程中影響力較小。然而,無論是都市居民或農村居民都仍然認為婚姻乃家庭大事。都市居民的結婚年齡較農村居民為晚。此外,本研究結果也顯示了男、女教育程度較高者,無分城、鄉,往往都比較晚婚。而這種高教育程度者趨向遲婚的現象尤以都市中之男性為最。由此研究報告我們不難窺見工業化與都市化在今在臺灣的社會變遷中所扮演的角色和影響。上述城、鄉居民在婚姻方面所表現的諸多差異,當可提供我們今後發展家庭計畫以及其他社會政策的借鏡與參考。
Abstract
A field study was carried out in 1978 to assess differences and similarities in marriage practices between rural and urban families in northern Taiwan. One thousand, two hundred and twenty-eight questionnaires were analyzed to determine attitudes about mate selection, parent’s attitudes toward their children’s marriage, attitude toward marriage as a family affair, and age at first marriage. Significant differences between the attitudes of rural inhabitants and urban inhabitants were found. Rural residents maintained more traditional Chinese values and customs than the urban residents. While the majority of rural families and strong parental influence in mate selection, the urban families did not. However, both rural and urban respondents considered marriage as a major family affair. The age of marriage for both males and females was older in the urban areas in comparison to the rural areas. Analysis of data also showed that higher education levels tend to raise age at first marriage for both sexes in urban and rural areas. This trend, however, was particularly strong among the urban male respondents. The information presented in this research report provides insight into the effects of industrialization and urbanization on the social fabric of contemporary Taiwan. The differences in marriage practices between urban and rural families has important

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中文摘要
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Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to describe the pattern of population growth during the period of socio-economic development, 1905~1976. This analysis looks at population trends for two broad periods: (1) the period of agriculture from 1905~1942, and (2) the period of development from 1946~1976. This latter phase is examined in terms of (a) the initial period of societal development (1949~1960), and (b) the most recent period of transition from 1961~1976. It was found that following the transformation from an agrarian to an urban-industrial society, the population has undergone a transition, but the transition of both fertility and mortality exhibited a different speed and pattern in the stages of socio-economic development. In the initial stage, a moderately high birth rate rose even higher while mortality decreased. If we look at the demographic transition in terms of declining mortality, it may be said that the population was in transition from about 1910 onward. But this mortality deceline was more in keeping with the Malthusian model rather than transition theory; and it was not until 1956, when socioeconomic development began to have an effect on social structure, that birth rate declines took place. As societal development went further, the birth rate decline accelerated while the deth rate decline slowed down, and the population seemed to be approaching a new demographic balance between low birth and death rates. The lag between the transitions of mortality and fertility decline was only about 50 years in Taiwan, as compared to 100-200 years in most modern European countries.

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中文摘要
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Abstract
This paper deals with the projection of primary school enrollments in the Taiwan-Fukien Area, 1983-87. Special emphasis is on the effects of recent fertility trends on educational needs. The projection was based on three types of data: (1) survival rations which were drawn from the life tables constructed by the Ministry of Interior; (2) monthly births which were recorded in the Taiwan-Fukien Demography Quarterly, published by the Ministry of Interior; and (3) data on enrollments in each grade which were published in educational Statistics, provided by the Ministry of Education. The results of the analysis include: (1) births corresponding to each academic year, (2) the survival ratio from birth to age at entrance, (3) projections of the grade 1 enrollments, (4) estimates of median grade-to-grade progression ratios, (5) primary school enrollments at each grade, (6) annual increase of students, (7) annual increase in number of classes, and (8) annual increase of teachers. It is suggested that the Government should spend a higher percentage of its revenue on compulsory education in order to meet the demand that will result from a rapid increase in primary school enrollments. A higher priority in allocating government budgets should be given to areas where increase in enrollments is projected to be greater. It is also suggested that the proposed program for extending the compulsory education from 9 to 12 years be delayed until the national economy begins to recover and the quality of compulsory education be improved to meet the requirements of the current education system.

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Abstract
This paper attempts to describe the dynamics of population change in Taiwan since 1905. It is found that the population growth during the past seventy years has effected cyclical shifts in the age composition of the population. Before the war, the age composition shifted toward the young end with the proportion of young surviving children enlarged. Then after the war, the age composition shifted back to the old end indicating the shrinkage of the proportion. It is suggested that the changes in age composition can be attributed to the trend of mortality decline since the early twenties. In other words, we argue that the mortality decline had a larger effect on the surviving of young children than the other age groups. With a controlled population model proposed by Ronald D. Lee, we show that the fertility decline, which effected in the upward turning of the age composition after the war, is simply a response to the mortality decline with a time lag of about twenty years.

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Abstract
The focus of this research is on the distribution and movement of population and the characteristics of travel demand in the Taipei, metropolitan area. It demonstrates that the diffusion of population through suburbanization has alleviated population concentration in the city, and the transportation network should be improved, if possible, in accordance with the increasing needs of travel demand. The difference of population distribution between daytime and nighttime among regions reflect the scattered activities and the intensity of traffic flo which shows the traffic volume generated and attracted mutually among the regions. The study finds the imbalance in the movement of population among regions and the strong movement of population between daytime and nighttime. The pressure that results from population movement on time and space causes the problems of housing and congestion. After a preliminary analysis, it is found that the imbalance or transportation supply and demand will be worse if no action is taken. Therefore, the improvement of mass transit system on which most population depend should be expedited, especially, the existing problems such as the uneconomie radial routing of bus system should be solved. In sum, in the process of urbanization and suburbanization, the distribution of population will change in the metropolitan area, so does the travel demand pattern. For adapting to those changes, a comprehensive planning, including urban and transportation planning, should be carefully considered.