第六十六期人口學刊2023.06 出刊


本期目錄
Contents


本期與前一期(第65期)皆以空間人口學(spatial demography) 為題,刊登的三篇文章中有兩篇與人口的空間特性有關。空間統計多 半從資料是否為空間同質(homogeneous)的角度切入,如果資料存 在明顯的空間異質性(spatial inhomogeneity),就更進一步探討哪些 地區的數值較高、哪些因素與數值高低有關,本期刊登的空間人口 文章即屬於這兩個議題。空間統計的發源時間非常早,但如同大眾 對於統計發展的印象,多半認為始於18世紀工業革命後的德國,為了 瞭解各邦國(或州[state])的狀況,因此發展出的一門科學,英文 statistics意謂有系統蒐集邦國的人口與經濟資料。空間統計最為知名 的故事為19世紀英國醫生John Snow,他透過地圖比對霍亂患者的住 址,發現染病數據與水源關係密切,因此支持霍亂通過水源而非空氣 傳播。由於不少空間分析會結合地圖等資訊,有些研究領域以地理空 間分析(geo-spatial analysis)稱呼,近年空間方法的應用方向愈見廣 闊,以生物醫學領域為例,像是遺傳圖譜的基因組學(genomics)、 醫學影像判讀都是知名範例。

本期刊登的第一篇文章由余清祥老師等人撰寫,探討異質性檢定 方法的比較及其應用。空間異質性的檢定可分為三種類型:總體檢定 (global test)、局部檢定(local test)、焦點檢定(focused test), 總體檢定可用於檢定全區域的資料是否為空間同質,局部檢定多用於 偵測高風險地區(或稱為群聚[cluster]),焦點檢定可用於確認特 定地區周圍是否有較高的發生率。本文作者以電腦模擬比較三種異質 性檢定中各一個具代表性的方法:Moran’s I(總體檢定)、SaTScan (區域檢定)及Tango score test(焦點檢定),並將異質性檢定方法 套用至縣市、鄉鎮市區層級死因資料,探討我國國民死亡率的地區差 異與時間變化趨勢。模擬結果顯示三種方法都可用於判斷空間同質 性,Moran’s I在空間自相關時最敏感,群聚存在時則以SaTScan效果最佳;實證分析發現全死因及主要死因死亡率都具有空間異質性,顯 示我國居民健康仍存有地區不平等的現象,不過地區差異未隨時間有 明顯改變,各地的死亡率改善幅度大致相同。

第二篇文章由許家瑋先生等人撰寫,探討臺灣的兒童肥胖問題, 分析有哪些環境健康因素與兒童肥胖有關。本篇文章使用林口長庚 紀念醫院的「兒童世代健康資料庫」(Longitudinal Investigation of Global Health in Taiwanese Schoolchildren),以2016年時1,383名臺北 市、新北市、基隆市、桃園市6-7歲之國小低年級學童為研究對象, 蒐集居家周邊方圓200 m之內手搖飲、鹹酥雞、滷味三項餐飲據點分 布數量,透過廣義線性模型(generalized linear model)判斷臺灣特色 餐飲據點之空間分布是否與孩童肥胖程度有關。分析發現在校正相關 風險因子後,這三項餐飲之空間分布與兒童肥胖(瘦素)呈現正相 關,其中鹹酥雞、滷味與肥胖呈顯著正相關。由於臺灣餐飲文化的多 元及蓬勃發展,具臺灣特色的餐飲遠多於西式餐飲,而且密度、價格 及取得便利性更加親民,本文分析發現鹹酥雞、滷味與兒童肥胖有 關,其意義類似國外研究的速食店密度與兒童肥胖有顯著關聯。近年 國人關注兒童健康時,大多從限制及改善速食餐飲的熱量、鹽、糖、 油脂等著手,本文研究結果提醒我們也應同步考量傳統餐飲,兒童可 能間接由家長及長輩攝取不健康之食物。

除了兩篇專刊論文,本期亦收錄楊靜利老師等人所撰寫的研究 紀要,關注中高齡未婚者在各種層面的特徵與趨勢。該研究分析自 1991-2017年共六期的「臺灣社會變遷基本調查」,並輔以1990-2010 年共三期的「人口及住宅普查」資料,分別從個人層次、家庭層次與 社會層次等,對於中高齡未婚者的特質、家庭與社會關係進行統計描 述。該研究發現,在個人層次上,無論是單身男性或女性的特定形象 愈來愈弱。在家庭層次上,最明顯的變化是單身男性獨居的相對比例 下降,而在社會層次上的社會支持,單身男性多為尋求家務協助,女 性則多為情感的依附,社會團體活動的參與程度上,單身男性明顯低於曾婚男性以及所有女性,顯示中年單身男性的社會參與範圍較為局 限。該文並在最後提醒讀者,目前社會對於多樣家庭的接受較高,但 中高齡或曾經有過婚姻經驗的同居者是偏向單身或有偶,其實需要更 深入的探討。

《人口學刊》自65期起已陸續出版「空間人口學」主題的四篇 專題論文,介紹學界利用空間統計方法在理解人口分布與歷程的最新 前沿議題與應用,以期提供人口學領域的學術界與政府單位參考。未 來本刊持續作為國內提供相關議題研究成果與政策意涵的重要平臺, 並期望能引領人口學研究的議題設定與跨領域研究,提供研究者一 個更多元的對話空間。因應電子化時代,本刊投稿方式以繳交電子 檔為主,檔案格式為word文件檔、pdf檔。與編輯部的聯絡的E-mail: psc@ntu.edu.tw;以及電話:(02)3366-3405。感謝您對本刊的支持與 愛護,敬請舊雨新知繼續支持,惠賜大作。

專題論文:空間人口學

DOI : 10.6191/JPS.202306_(66).0001

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空間異質性、空間自相關、平均餘命、主要死因、探索性資料分析、spatial heterogeneity, spatial autocorrelation, life expectancy, leading causes of death, explanatory data analysis
中文摘要
臺灣土地面積雖然不大,各地居民的壽命差異卻相當大,民國 110年臺北市、臺東縣男性的平均壽命差異高達8.9歲,隨著公共政 策、社會資源的調整與挹注,預期國人健康及壽命的地區不平等將逐 漸縮小。空間異質性可用於檢視健康與壽命的地區差異,而空間異質 指的即是空間上的差異,相關檢定大致可分為三大類:總體檢定、 區域檢定、焦點檢定,總體檢定可用於檢定全區域資料是否為空間同 質,區域檢定多用於偵測高風險地區(或稱為群聚),焦點檢定則用 於確認特定地區周圍是否有較高發生率。本文先使用電腦模擬比較 三種異質性檢定中各一個具代表性的方法:Moran’s I(總體檢定)、 SaTScan(區域檢定)及Tango score test(焦點檢定),比較資料具有 空間自相關及群聚時的偵測效果。其中模擬的實驗地區為二度空間, 大小為5 × 5、7 × 7、9 × 9、⋯、21 × 21的格子點,檢測各方法在空間 同質、空間自相關、群聚的效果。研究發現三種方法在空間同質性的 結果大致相同,Moran’s I在空間自相關時最敏感,而群聚存在時則以 SaTScan效果最佳。本文套用上述研究結果至縣市、鄉鎮市區層級全 死因及前三大主要死因(惡性腫瘤、心臟疾病、肺炎)。分析發現死 亡率的空間分布具有時間一致性,但死亡率卻存有明顯的空間差異, 高風險大多落在東南部山區。綜合而言,我國主要死因仍存有地區不 平等的現象。
關鍵詞:空間異質性、空間自相關、平均餘命、主要死因、探索性資料分析
Abstract
Taiwan is not a large country, but the discrepancy in life expectancy between areas is quite obvious. For example, in 2021, the difference in male life expectancy between Taipei City and Taitung County, a remote part of the southeast coast, is 9 years. We expect that the difference between regions will become smaller with the increasing reach of public resources. There is data through which this can be explored. Spatial heterogeneity can be used to explore regional inequality; there are three types of tests for checking spatial heterogeneity: global test, local test, and focused test. The global test can be used to test whether the data are spatially homogeneous; the local test is usually used to detect the location of high-risk areas (i.e., clusters); and the focused test can be used to confirm whether there are high incidence rates around a specific area. In this study, we select three common heterogeneity tests: Moran’s I (global test), SaTScan (local test), and Tango score test (focused test), and evaluate whether these methods can detect spatial autocorrelation and/or clusters via simulation and empirical analysis. The simulation study is performed on a two-dimensional space, with lattice data of size 5 × 5, 7 × 7, 9 × 9, …, 21 × 21, under the assumption that the data should satisfy spatial homogeneity, spatial autocorrelation, and clustering. The empirical data considered are the overall township-level and major cause mortality rates in Taiwan. We found that these methods provide similar results in checking spatial homogeneity. Moran’s I is the most sensitive test for spatial autocorrelation, and SaTScan is the best for testing the existence of clusters, followed by Tango score test. We also apply these methods to the mortality rates of the top three major causes of death (cancer, heart disease, and pneumonia) in Taiwan. We found that they change steadily, with the difference in mortality rates between two consecutive years satisfying spatially heterogeneity, while most clusters of mortality rates are located in the southeastern mountain areas. In general, there are still regional inequalities in the main causes of death.
Keywords: spatial heterogeneity, spatial autocorrelation, life expectancy, leading causes of death, explanatory data analysis

DOI : 10.6191/JPS.202306_(66).0002

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兒童肥胖、臺灣特色餐飲據點、手搖飲、鹹酥雞、滷味;childhood obesity, Taiwanese popular restaurants, handshaken drinks, Taiwanese fried chicken, Taiwanese braised dishes
中文摘要
臺灣兒童的肥胖問題位居亞洲之冠,因此釐清造成兒童肥胖的 在地風險,是當前非常重要的環境健康問題。本研究以基於林口長 庚紀念醫院的「兒童世代健康資料庫」(Longitudinal Investigation of Global Health in Taiwanese Schoolchildren, LIGHTS),取得2016年時 1,383位6-7歲國小低年級學童之肥胖相關身體激素指標資訊;同時透 過Google多平臺之開放資料,取得手搖飲、鹹酥雞、滷味等臺灣特色 餐飲據點之空間分布資訊,最後在校正相關風險因子情形下,透過廣 義線性模型,以釐清臺灣特色餐飲據點之空間分布與國小低年級學童 肥胖之關聯。研究結果發現,孩童體內之瘦素(leptin)與住家周邊 方圓200 m內之三項特色餐飲分布均具正相關,其中手搖飲未達統計 上顯著程度,鹹酥雞及滷味之分布更係達到顯著正相關(p < .05); 經敏感度分析及分層分析,特色餐飲據點之影響仍維持不變之正相關 效應,但部分案例未達統計上顯著程度(p > .05)。
關鍵詞:兒童肥胖、臺灣特色餐飲據點、手搖飲、鹹酥雞、滷味
Abstract
Taiwan ranks as the top nation for childhood obesity in Asia. Clarifying the risk factors for childhood obesity is increasingly an important environmental health issue for local communities. Based on the Longitudinal Investigation of Global Health in Taiwanese Schoolchildren (LIGHTS) database of Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, the obesityrelated body hormone index information for 1,383 schoolchildren aged 6-7 in 2016 was obtained in this study. The spatial distribution information for Taiwanese popular restaurants serving high-calorie foods such as handshaken drinks, Taiwanese fried chicken, and Taiwanese braised dishes was assessed through Google multi-platform. A generalized linear model was used to investigate the association between the spatial distribution of Taiwanese restaurants and obesity in primary school schoolchildren with the adjustment of the covariates. The results show a positive association between the level of leptin and the distribution of all three types of dining restaurants within a 200 m buffer range surrounding the children’s homes. The effects reached statistical significance (p < .05), specifically in the distribution of Taiwanese fried chicken and Taiwanese braised dishes. The results remained positive for several sensitivity tests and subgroup analyses.
Keywords: childhood obesity, Taiwanese popular restaurants, handshaken drinks, Taiwanese fried chicken, Taiwanese braised dishes

研究紀要

DOI : 10.6191/JPS.202306_(66).0003

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單身、個人特質、居住安排、家庭關係、社會參與;always-single, individual characteristics, living arrangements, family relations, social participation
中文摘要
臺灣近30年生育與婚姻行為有很大的改變,晚婚晚育普遍,終 生未婚率逐年攀升,預示未來有更多中高齡未婚者。本研究試圖多面 向瞭解單身者,包括:從個人層次瞭解人口與社會特徵、從家庭層次 瞭解居住安排與家庭關係、從社會層次瞭解社會支持與社會參與。本 研究使用「臺灣社會變遷基本調查」1991-2016年六期「家庭」組、 2002與2012年「性別」組、2017年「網路與社會資源」組等資料,另 輔以1990-2010年三期「人口及住宅普查」資料,分析40-59歲者,將 婚姻狀況分為「單身組」與「曾婚組」。研究結果顯示:一、個人層 次上,雖個人社經條件對是否單身的影響仍因性別不同,但單身男女 性的特定形象愈來愈弱。二、家庭層次上,單身男性獨居相對比例下 降,單身男女與父母同住比例皆上升。單身者提供父母協助增加, 特別是單身女性,蘊含女性承擔愈來愈多老年父母照顧工作。不過整 體而言,父母提供單身子女的幫助也較曾婚子女多。三、社會層次 上,單身組相對曾婚組有較多家人以外之社會支持,而且支持內容有 性別差異,單身男性多為尋求家務協助,女性多為情感依附。與家人 以外朋友聚餐的頻率,曾婚女性最低,顯示婚姻對於女性社交範圍的 限制,在社會團體活動參與上,中年單身男性的社會參與範圍則較為 局限。
關鍵詞:單身、個人特質、居住安排、家庭關係、社會參與
Abstract
Over the past 30 years, marriage and birth behaviors have gone through tremendous change in Taiwan. Not only are people delaying marriage and birth, but rate of lifetime singlehood has increased as well, thus projecting a higher prevalence of the always-single. This study explores different aspects of the always-single, including their (1) demographic characteristics on the individual level, (2) living arrangements and family relations on the family level, and (3) social support and social participation on the societal level. We use six datasets from the Taiwan Social Change Survey 1991-2016 (included “Family” and “Gender” Modules), the “Social Network and Social Resources” Module in Taiwan Social Change Survey 2017, and Population and Housing Census of 1991, 2000, and 2010. In our samples, we divide marriage status into the “always-single,” who are single and have no children and the “ever-married,” which includes the married, separated, divorced, and windowed. To lower the influence of future change of marriage status, we limit the sample cohort to 40-59 years of age. Results show that (1) on the individual level, even though the influence of social and economic status on being single still exhibits gender differences, the image of single men being losers and single women being successful and careeroriented has weakened. (2) On the family level, the most obvious change is the decrease of single men living alone, and the increase of living with parents for both single men and women. Meanwhile, single children provide increased assistance to their parents, especially in the case of single women, which implies care for the elderly is still a women’s job. However, parents provide more assistance to single children than ever-married children as well. (3) On the societal level, the always-single have more social support than the ever-married, and this social support shows gender differences. Single men tend to seek help related to housework, while single women’s requests for help are more affection and emotion-based. The frequency of ever-married women going to gatherings other than with family members is the lowest. This supports the notion that women’s social contact drops drastically after marriage. For the frequency of engaging in social activities, single men are obviously lower than the others, which shows their tendency to shut themselves in at home.
Keywords: always-single, individual characteristics, living arrangements, family relations, social participation