此篇文章無中文摘要

This paper re-examines the facts and theories of the much debated population transition and proposes that the transition should be regarded as a “regularity” governing the population growth of the nations during the past two hundred years. It is argued that since in almost all the cases the mortality decline has preceded the fertility decline but socioeconomic covariates of fertility have been found to be inconsistent, a supply dominant resolution with built-in dynamics of the renewal process should be adopted. Fertility decline is then related to a subjective increase in the supply of children, and alternatively, to the relative income of the young adults entering the labor market. Evidences affirming the relationships between mortality decline, shifting age composition, and fertility decline are provided.

此篇文章無中文摘要

There are around 40,000 births in Taipei City each year. Of them, about 40% are of the first party. Of all deliveries, about 80% are born to mothers under 30 years old. There are about 20,000 marriages each year. Of all brides and grooms surveyed in the present study, 39.4% and 39.1% consider the ideal time to conceive being either as early as possible or within one year after the wedding. In actuality, 28.08% of the respondents were already pregnant before the wedding. Excluding the interviewees who were married for over one year, 34.1% are currently pregnant, 6.98% have already given births, and 0.15% have become pregnant again after a birth. This result is similar to the findings of the KAP conducted by the Center in 1980 which showed that 41.3% of the interviewees gave birth to their first child within one year after the wedding. The same survey of 1980 also finds that the interval between the first and the second children is 1.94 years, though women in general consider the ideal interval being 2.6 years.
How to encourage those who are to be married and the newlyweds to prolong the intervals between the wedding and the first child, and between the first and the second child is an important task of the health educators.
The present study interviews 1,013 couples who registered their marriages in Oct. 1983. Needs, targets, and contents of education programs are identified. Better ways to communicate with the newlyweds are also indicated. The purpose of the study, based on the findings, is to propose a model most suitable for the education in family planning of those who are to be married and who are just married, in order to provide them with better services and to further reduce the fertility of the young people.

在現代國家中，政府對於未來人口的預測，都比較重視。因為從人口預測的成果中，可以得到很多對政府施政有用的資料，諸如教育設施、交通建設、公共工程、老幼的照顧等等，如有較佳的未來人口資料，定會產生更佳的效果，而避免浪費。
在過去二十多年中，香港政府在一九六一年、一九七一年和一九八一年人口普查後，和一九六六年和一九七六年人口抽樣調查後，都曾辦理人口預測，採用合成法，利用普查或抽樣調查所得資料作為基礎，再根據當時所有關於生育、死亡、和移民方面資料，來擬定生育、死亡、和移民這三項影響未來人口增長的假設，然後逐年推算五年後、十年後，甚至二十年後香港人口的總數和組成。
本文旨在討論香港人口預測過程中，如何利用所有資料來擬定生育、死亡和移民方面的假設，分析在預測過程中，各種技術方面的改進，並評估過去預測成果的精確程度。同時也從最近的人口預測，來探討到公元二○○一年時，香港人口的組成情況。

No English abstract available.

決定生育的因素非常複雜，其研究也是多方面的；包括社會學、經濟學、心理學、人類學、生物學、衛生等等。但，很難得到肯定而完善的單一解釋模式。Bulatao及Lee根據Easterlin的理論所發展的一個「子女需要及控制生育」分析模式，可用以檢討有關臺灣地區決定生育水準高低各因素的知識和將來研究方向。據此分析，臺灣地區過去的社會經濟發展和家庭計畫推行工作，減少對子女的需要及控制生育的成本。幼年人口死亡率的下降及較高的自然生育力，使子女的供應超過需要量，因而創造控制生育的動機。此動機和控制成本的降低相配合，促進了生育力的控制與下降。將來，在子女需要上，須多了解為何臺灣的民眾需要兩個以上子女，子女的價值如何，有何替代子女之事物，影響子女需要的因素及其作用，家庭結構的影響等。在供應方面，須多研究餵母乳的情形及影響因素，如何實施優生保健，及結婚年齡的變化與影響因素等。生育控制方面，應做生育控制的成本分析，研究不同型態地區的推行方式，人工流產的監視等。另外應研究人口政策對生育率的影響及人口教育的內容與方式等。建議籌設人口研究機構以便有計畫推動有關人口之研究工作。

No English abstract available.

No English abstract available.

本文主要在就「婚姻狀況組成與生育率之關係」，從事國際間的比較分析，研究對象包括10個參與「世界生育力調查」（The World Fertility Survey）的亞洲國家。資料顯示，就年齡別有偶婦女比率以及婚姻破裂的水準而言，各國間的差異相當顯著。本文進一步假設其他與婚姻狀況有關的變數，例如再婚，婚姻期間長度，以及生殖時間損失等都會影響生育率。實證分析發現，在控制其他因素之後，婚姻不穩定性對生育兒女有負的影響。因此，婚姻不穩定性可能是造成所研究各國間生育率差異的部分原因。

No English abstract available.