No. 8, Journal of Population StudiesPublished: 1985.07


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Abstract
This paper re-examines the facts and theories of the much debated population transition and proposes that the transition should be regarded as a “regularity” governing the population growth of the nations during the past two hundred years. It is argued that since in almost all the cases the mortality decline has preceded the fertility decline but socioeconomic covariates of fertility have been found to be inconsistent, a supply dominant resolution with built-in dynamics of the renewal process should be adopted. Fertility decline is then related to a subjective increase in the supply of children, and alternatively, to the relative income of the young adults entering the labor market. Evidences affirming the relationships between mortality decline, shifting age composition, and fertility decline are provided.

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There are around 40,000 births in Taipei City each year. Of them, about 40% are of the first party. Of all deliveries, about 80% are born to mothers under 30 years old. There are about 20,000 marriages each year. Of all brides and grooms surveyed in the present study, 39.4% and 39.1% consider the ideal time to conceive being either as early as possible or within one year after the wedding. In actuality, 28.08% of the respondents were already pregnant before the wedding. Excluding the interviewees who were married for over one year, 34.1% are currently pregnant, 6.98% have already given births, and 0.15% have become pregnant again after a birth. This result is similar to the findings of the KAP conducted by the Center in 1980 which showed that 41.3% of the interviewees gave birth to their first child within one year after the wedding. The same survey of 1980 also finds that the interval between the first and the second children is 1.94 years, though women in general consider the ideal interval being 2.6 years.
How to encourage those who are to be married and the newlyweds to prolong the intervals between the wedding and the first child, and between the first and the second child is an important task of the health educators.
The present study interviews 1,013 couples who registered their marriages in Oct. 1983. Needs, targets, and contents of education programs are identified. Better ways to communicate with the newlyweds are also indicated. The purpose of the study, based on the findings, is to propose a model most suitable for the education in family planning of those who are to be married and who are just married, in order to provide them with better services and to further reduce the fertility of the young people.

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