臺灣地區的現階段人口變遷始於日據時代中期，約一九二○年前後人口死亡率開始大幅下跌時，至一九八三年時人口淨繁殖率已經迫近於替換水準，在短短不到七十年的時間內完成歐美國家歷史上費時近兩百年的歷程，無論是就數量或速率的變化而言都是一項劇烈的變遷，其影響之深與遠恐非歐美經驗所能比擬，值得利用這個關鍵時刻做點反省與思考。本文引用人口動態的理論檢討過去數十年來的人口變遷，指出日據時代的死亡率大幅大跌造成臺灣地區的人口快速成長，而且透過一個延後的效應促成光復後的生育率下跌。本文進一步指出戰後的生育率長期大幅下跌必然帶來人口老化的結果，而且生育率下降的速度愈快則人口老化的速度愈快，代換為高峰期人口的就業與職位昇遷問題，也影響到未來老年人口的養老資源及其退休生活。

The population transition in Taiwan has reached the final phase that life expectancy at birth is approaching an asymptote and net reproduction rate is already below the replacement level. It is argued that since the transition takes a shorter period of time to complete than that of the European-American experiences, age composition of the population is so affected as to produce a structure akin to the result of a boby-boom. While the size of a boby-boom is measured by the magnitude and speed of fertility increases, the peak in numbers born during the transition can be measured by the magnitude and speed of fertility decline. Effects of the peaked age structure on employment, retirement, and household composition are demonstrated with some simplified proportional models. It is also shown that population aging would become phenomenal during the first quarter of the next century, due to the hastened decline of fertility since 1980.

本文以人口穩定理論分析人口變遷對社會保險制度及教育制度之影響。因受資料之限制，本文採取美國為例，分析方法及解釋，可運用於臺灣地區；尤其適當之社會與教育統計資料完備時。

This paper examines the effect of demographic changes on social organizations. Due to data availability, this study applies stable population theory to the situation of the United States.

本研究利用1980年臺閩地區人口普查資料和相關人口統計資料，以361個市鎮鄉區作為分析單位，廣泛搜集有關人口和社會經濟發展的變項，分析其間的關係及所呈現的層面。簡單相關和因素分析的結果顯示地區的特徵有緊密的交互關係，並且可歸納為三個主要因素，即(1)人口過程與社經發展，(2)人口成長與社經負擔，和(3)婚姻失調與二級產業，其中以第一個因素最為重要。變異數分析的結果指出城鄉或區域差距顯著存在。上述結果隱示需要許多政策上的考量、規畫、和實施，諸如人口政策、社會福利（尤其是老人福利）、農業政策、山地政策、和綜合開發計畫等。

Using 1980 census and related demographic data of Taiwan, this study aims to analyze the relationships between demographic parameters and socio-economic development and their dimensions. The results of zero-oder correlation and factor analysis show that closed relationships exist between areal characteristics. There factors are extracted, namely, demographic processes and socio-economic development, population growth and socio-economic burden, and marital maladjustment and secondary industry. The result of one-way analysis of variance indicates that disparity exists among four planned regions. The study reveals some implications of policy.

由柏納德（Jessie Bernard）的婚姻斜坡理論，本文假設婚配雙方的年齡及教育坡度會影響女性在家庭中相對於丈夫之地位安排，因而影響其對生育的控制力。
採用第五次家庭與生育力調查的資料，本研究應用Logit線性模型的統計分析方法，探討婚姻的年齡及教育坡度對婦女生育控制力的影響，模型中並將婦女的年齡及教育程度變項本身列入分析以求控制。
研究發現：

• (1)婚姻年齡坡度確實影響女性的生育控制力，
• (2)婚姻的教育坡度單獨對生育控制力的影響作用並不顯著，但是它和女性教育程度的交互作用對生育控制力有顯著的影響，顯示女性教育程度等於或高於丈夫教育程度，會促使原本就較能控制生育的高教育女性更加具有高度的控制力。

本文建議進一步探討婚姻坡度的其他面向對生育控制力的作用，如職業地位及收入等，不過，這些面向和生育控制力在因果關係上比現在的研究具有複雜的本質，必須特別留意。

Beranrd’s theory on marriage gradient introduces a hypothetical model in this paper that age and educational distances of marriage could affect the status of women relative to their spouse within family, hence would affect the fertility controllability for a woman. Adopting data from KAP survey, this study applies the logit-linear model for analyzing the effect of spouses’ age and educational distances on women’s fertility controllability. Both variables of women’s age and educational attainment are also included as controls. The findings are: (1)age distance factor do affect women’s fertility controllability significantly besides age factor itself. (2)the effect of educational distance alone is not supported, but its interaction effect with educational attainment is found significantly. This implies that a women’s educational attainment being higher or equal compared to her husband’s strengthen women’s fertility controllability to their already strong one. Further studies regarding the effect of other aspects of marriage gradient such as occupational position and income are suggested. But their rather sophisticated nature of causal relationship with fertility controllability need more consideration.

本論文試以由世界生育調查所得到的國際間的資料來理清初婚年齡與生育的關係。研究的結果顯示各國人口的初婚年齡與完整的出生水準之間都呈強度的負相關，此因初婚年齡會影響懷有小孩危險性時間的長短。檢討有關資料的結果也可看出結婚時的年齡也會影響生育的期間。晚婚的婦女生育都較密集，此種事實乃基於晚婚婦女都有趕緊生育以為補償之假設。
本研究也進而發現不同國家初婚年齡相同人口的生育水準有所差別，足見初婚年齡並非決定生育水準的唯一因素。儘管如此本研究頗具有政策性之意義。由於研究結果發現未接受節育的人口群，結婚年齡較晚者完整的生育水準卻較低，故在節育程度低及平均結婚年齡較低的國家，提高結婚的合法年齡可預期對生育子女會有負面的作用。

This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between age at first union and fertility by cross-country comparisons, using data form the World Fertility Survey. The results show that for all countries under investigation, age at union appears to have a strong negative association with completed fertility because of its effect on duration or longer exposure to risk of childbearing. Examination of the data also reveals that age at union affects the timing of fertility. Women entering union at older ages were found to have closer spacing. Such evidence confirms the hypothesis that women marrying late are likely to increase the pace of fertility in order to compensate for their late union. Lastly, it was observed that differences remain in fertility by age-at-union groups across countries. Hence, distribution of age at union alone cannot fully account for variations in fertility among countries. Nevertheless, the study has certain policy implications. Based upon these findings, it is clear that in a non-contracepting population, later age at marriage will result in lower completed fertility. Thus, for countries with low levels of contraceptive use and low mean age at marriage, an increase in the legal age at union can be expected to have a negative impact upon childbearing.

香港的人口，從1961年的313萬人，增至1985年的542萬人，在這25年中，增加達230萬人，幾達75%。本文旨在討論香港人口在過去二、三十年間的增長，分析人口在分佈、性別、年齡、婚姻和勞動力方面的特徵和演變，及出生、死亡和移民增加等因素對香港人口增長的影響。
香港的人口出生率，在1950年代後期高達37?，每年出生嬰孩數在10萬名以上。進入1960年代後，逐漸下降至目前的出生率在15?以下和每年出生嬰孩數少於8萬名。近年來青年男女，因受教育和就業機會增加，有將結婚年齡推延二、三年的跡象，年輕夫婦因居屋面積窄小和欲享受較高生活水平意願，多以一、二個子女為標準，促使出生率迅速下降，出生嬰孩為首兩位子女佔全部出生嬰孩的比率，已增至四分之三以上。
香港每年死亡人數，從1960年代的2萬人左右，增至目前的2萬5、6千人，這是因為人口的增長和人口較為老化所致。死亡率則從戰後的3?以上，降至過去10多年的5?左右。如果扣除人口年齡結構方面的影響，則在過去10年中，死亡率在實質上有20%的減少。嬰孩死亡率的下降尤為迅速，從戰後的100?，降至近年的10?以下。生活水準的提高，所得增加，醫學和醫療服務的改善，都是促成死亡率下降的原因。
過去二十多年中，合法與非法移民進入香港人數變動甚大，對香港人口增長的影響，也波動頗大。1980年起，嚴格防止非法移民進入，不准非法移民在港居留後，自然增長成為香港人口增長的主要因素。

The population of Hong Kong grew from 3.13 million in 1961 to 5.42 million in 1985. The population increased by 2.29 million, or 75 per cent, in the past 25 years. This paper tries to analyse the demographic characteristics of the population and to examine the factors, such as fertility, mortality and migration, which affected Hong Kong’s population growth.
The fertility decline in the 1960’s was believed to be due to the relative decline in the number of young women and the decline in the proportion of women married especially at the fertile ages 20-24. The continued fertility decline in the 1970’s was caused by postponement of marriage and the genuine decline in marital fertility. The postponement of marriage was largely attributable to the better educational and job opportunities available for the young generation. The trend for small families was attributable to the pressures on housing and young couples’ desire for a higher standard of living.
Hong Kong’s crude death rate fluctuated around the level of five per 1,000 persons in the past twenty years. However, standardized death rates showed a reduction of 20 per cent in the mortality level in the past decade. The decline in mortality is associated with the rapid socio-economic and environmental development, better medical facilities and improvements in education, housing, sanitation and hygiene. The infant mortality is now below 9 per 1,000 live births. Further decline in infant mortality depends on the possibility of a significant drop in neonatal mortality in the future.
As the inward migration is under control and the net balance is estimated to be around 15,000 persons per annum, natural growth will be the major factor contributing to the future population growth of Hong Kong. The Hong Kong population is projected to each 6 millions in 1992. The aging of the population will continue, and the proportion of population aged 65 and over will reach 10 per cent in the late 1990's.

本文探討臺灣地區就業勞工職業不協調的隱性結構，也同時比較男女性就業勞工職業不協調之隱性結構上的異同。文中職業不協調包括四個指標：非志願性的部分時間工作者，工作時間過長的工作者，所得低的工作者和教育過度（或教育不配合）的工作者。分析的資料來自1982年5月行政院主計處勞動調查委員會所進行的勞動力應用調查。群體職業不協調之隱性結構以兩個階層為佳。第一階層或第一組之勞工，不論是男性或女性，有極高的機會就業於低所得的工作。第二階層之勞工，也不論是男性或女性，則傾向於工作時間過長或教育過度。另外，分析結果顯示男女就業勞工職業不協調的隱性結構分配是相似的，但是男女性勞工卻有顯著不同的機率就業於下列的工作：(1)非志願性部分時間工作，(2)工作時間過長的工作，(3)所得低的工作及(4)教育過度的工作。

This study employed nationwide survey data to estimate the extent of occupational incongruity of Taiwan’s labor force. Specifically, it attempted to examine the latent structure of occupational incongruity and to assess sex differences in the latent structure of occupational incongruity. Four indicators were used to represent occupational incongruity: involuntary part-time work, excess hours work, relatively low income work, and educationally mismatched work. The data suggested that the unrestricted two-class latent class model was appropriate for Taiwan’s labor force. The first class tended to be strongly associated with low income incongruity for male workers and female workers. The second class tended to express excess hours or educational mismatch incongruity for both sexes. The class structure of occupational incongruity was examined and compared for male workers and female workers. The results revealed that the latent class proportions were the same between males and females, but the sexes had differential risks of experiencing low hours, excess hours, low income, and educational mismatch. The implications of these results for an understanding of manpower utilization were discussed in the final section.

本研究之主要目的在探討影響職業聲望之個人特質因素。以30～59歲已婚且育有子女就業者為對象，使用對數線性模型、Logit模型等方法檢驗受訪者之性別(S)、年齡(A)、教育程度(E)是否影響其職業聲望(O)之高低。
經由分析結果，本研究得到以下結論：

• (一)性別、年齡、教育程度、職業聲望四變項之間關係的最適當模型為Model As, EA, OS, OE；在入值和2值檢定下，證明男性受訪者之年齡顯著高於女性、低年齡者教育程度高、男性之職業聲望高、教育程度高者職業聲望高。
• (二)性別、年齡、和教育程度與低中、中高、低高職業聲望間之最適當Logit模型分別為Model EAS, OS, OD；Model EAS, OAS, OEA；及Model EAS, OE。對低、中職業聲望的人而言，性別、教育程度個別影響其職業聲望。對中、高職業聲望的人而言，性別及年齡、年齡及教育程度之交互作用影響職業聲望。對低、高職業聲望的人而言，僅有教育程度為影響因素。

由研究發現知，性別固然與職業聲望頗有關係，但並不如教育程度那般具有影響力；至於年齡，僅在與性別、教育程度產生交互作用時才對職業聲望有較明顯的影響。性別、年齡為歸屬特質，教育程度為成就特質；換言之，後者可經由個人努力的改變而提高。個人若致力於追求更高之教育程度，即使性別、年齡上較居弱勢，也大有可能從事高職業聲望之職業。是以個人不必再囿於性別、年齡而躊躇不前；畢竟，在愈趨開放的民主社會裡，因性別、年齡而遭另眼看待的可能性已然降低。

This paper discusses personal factors such as sex, age, education and their relationship to occupation. Since the prestige of occupation is judged by the general population with a high degree of consensus and the relative prestige ranking of occupation is seem to be quite consistent in most highly differentiated societies, the sociologists consider occupations or occupational prestige as an index of class.
In order to elaborate the thesis, data from a previous research, “A Study of Factors Affecting the Selection of an Occupation and its Achievement” is analysed. The focus is on the association of sex(S), age(A), education(E) with occupational prestige(O). A sample of 603 married and working persons, aged 30-59 was studied and we concluded that: 1. Model AS, EA, OS, OE is the best log-linear model to account for the relationship among the sex, age, education and occupation variables. 2. Model EAS, OS, OE. Model EAS, OAS, OEA. And Model EAS, OE. Are the three best logit models.
From the studies shown, there is a significant relation between sex, educational level and occupational prestige, but the weight of education and sex is different. Educational level is more important than sex. Age may play a role in occupational prestige when interaction of sex and educational level is considered. Age and sex are ascribed traits while education is an achieved trait. If one tries to get higher educational level, he would select the occupation of higher occupational prestige in spite of age and sex factors. In a highly democratic society, the possibility of differential treatment simply related to age and sex is reduced gradually.

人口學研究在國際學術界的發展至為蓬勃，而在國內發展則方興未艾，預料國內尚有不少人包括學術界及一般的國民中尚有不少人對於人口研究的重要性及在國內外發展的情況及趨勢尚有不甚明瞭之處。為能使更多的人對於此種學術研究的重要性及中外發展情況有所認識，藉以支持並參與此種學術發展，增進參與研究動機並知如何與有關的機關接觸，乃撰此文。
文中的論點係作者多年來致力這門學問的研究之後的心得，而所用資料則係由各有關機構搜集而來的次級性資料，經作者加以重組並詮釋。
本文內容分成三大部份，第一部份為說明人口研究的重要性，先說明受重視的現象，再分析重要的理由。第二部份係敘述臺灣地區人口研究的發展，先說明政府在收集及整理資料方面的發展過程及內容，而後再分析學術機關的教學及研究發展情形，繼而再分析民間組織對人口研究的重視及運用。第三部份則著重分析並說明國際推動人口研究發展的機構與組織。在這部份特列舉聯合國人口組（United Nations Population Division）國際人口科學研究聯盟（IUSSP）及國際人口研究機構合作委員會（CICRED）等三個機關的性質及功能。最後再列舉各國公私立國際人口專業組織及贊助機關。皆分別列舉了數十個組織或機關的名稱及所在地點，期能便於讀者認識並利用。
本文未將人口研究資料最發達的美國涵蓋在內，實因作者於多年前早已體認美國人口研究之進步，曾撰寫過一篇「美國人口研究」的專文，故在本文中從略。

Population Studies has been well developed in many countries of the world, but not so in Taiwan. Many academic people and general citizens in Taiwan Area are still not very familiar with the significance of population research within and outside of the nation. The purpose of this paper is to help readers understand the importance and development situation and trend of the field of population studies, so that they can be motivated to carry out population research and can become more knowledgeable of institutions and organizations both in Taiwan and abroad.
Concepts of the importance and the development situation and trend of population studies presented in this paper are developed by the author through studying population for many years. Most sources used in this present paper are secondary, which appears in various population references and documents of population organizations.
The paper is composed of three main parts: the importance of population studies, the development of population studies in Taiwan, and international population research and sponsoring organizations and agencies. In the first part, the important situation of population studies and its reasons have been comprehensively discussed. In the second part, discussions are extended to three subjects: (1)government’s role on data collection and data analysis; (2)teaching and research developments in academic institutions; (3)private organizations’ role in the promotion and application of population studies. In the third part, more than seventy international institutions and agencies of population studies have been introduced and examined. Particular attention has been paid to characteristics and functions of three organizations, i.e. United Nations Population Divisions, IUSSP and CICRED. In addition, many other international public and private agencies in different countries have been listed and their locations mentioned.
In this paper the discussion has not included the development of population studies in the United States. It is becaues the development status in this country is unusually important and it needs a special report. The author had made such a report on population studies in the United States a decade ago, and it will not be repeated here.