分析歐盟十五個會員國的養老態度我們發現,，經濟社會的現代化與子女同居照顧意願間存有明顯的相關，國民平均所得較高、家庭聯繫較鬆散、非婚生比率較高、女性勞動力參與率較高地區，子女的同居照顧意願較低。丹麥、瑞典、芬蘭、及荷蘭等國的個人主義取向較明顯，只有10%~18%的受訪者認為子女應與父母同居照料失能父母，義大利、愛爾蘭、以及其他西歐諸國居次，最高的是希臘、西班牙、葡萄牙三國，同居照顧意願達70%以上。資料同時顯示，社會民主主義福利體制國家傾向於將養老費用的主要統籌支付責任歸諸政府，而地中海國家則把責任歸諸子女與政府。隨著經濟與社會的發展，地中海國家的子女奉養意願將會降低，而政府也將在養老政策上扮演更積極主動的地位。

EU member states have a history of close nature, economic, and political ties, but their populations hold diverse attitudes towards support for the elderly. An analysis of data from the 1997 Eurobarometer Survey shows that a large majority (70%) of EU citizens living in Greece, Spain, and Portugal believe that children should care for aging parents who can no longer manage to live independently, yet only 10-18% of citizens living in Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the Netherlands feel the same way. A negative association was found between level of socioeconomic modernization and willingness to live with disabled parents. Those in countries with higher per capita GNP, higher female labor force participation rates, and higher percentages of births outside of marriage also showed lower tendencies of adult children sharing their homes with disabled parents. The survey data also show that citizens living in social democratic countries tend to believe that the state should pay for primary care for the elderly; however, residents in Mediterranean countries are more likely to agree that the responsibility should be shared by the state and adult children. The author argues that as Mediterranean countries develop economically, rates of parents living with their adult children will decrease, and the governments of those countries will have to play a more active role in caring for the elderly.

Testing the Gompertz law (i.e. the law of geometrical progression) for elderly mortality rates has long been discussed in the literature, but tests based on a set of yearly age-specific data have not been fully explored yet. In the first part of this paper, we propose a standard operating procedure for testing Gompertz assumption using yearly age-specific mortality data. Methods used in the procedure include estimation of parameters in the Gompertz law and their standard errors via bootstrap simulation. In addition to the oldest-old (i.e. ages 80 and above) data from Japan, Sweden, France, and the U.S. (Data sources: Berkeley Mortality Database and Kannisto, 1994), a simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed procedure. In practice the period of data collection is often prolonged to 5 or 10 years in order to accumulate sufficient sample sizes. However, a longer data collection period is likely to mix data with different attributes and cause problems in the parameters estimation. Thus, in the second part of this appear, we discuss the impacts of the data collection period and population sizes on the testing results.

高齡老人(65歲以上)的死文率歷來都被認為滿足Gompertz模型，實證中有不少高齡資料以此假設來配置，但因受限於資料量的不足，鮮少有研究以統計檢定的觀點檢視Gompertzai模型是否合適，因而至今仍有正反兩派意見支持與反對將老年人死亡率以Gompertz模型來配適或推估。有鑑於此，本研究提出一套檢測Gompertz假設的方法，包括模型的檢定、參數的估計、及藉由電腦模擬(拔靴法)得到參數估計值的標準差。值得一提的是本方法也可用於僅有單一年度各年齡別的死亡資料。有別於過去研究中統計檢定需要兩組以上(也就是兩個以上的年度)的各年齡別的死亡資料。本文除了實證部分採用日本、瑞典、法國、美國這四個國家80歲以上的死亡資料(資料來源：美國柏克萊大學死亡率資料庫與Kannisto, 1994)，也藉由電腦模擬檢驗本文提出的方法是否正確。除此之外，實驗中常因樣本數的不足，而將原先單一年度的資料延長成合併數個年度(通常為五年或十年)的資料，本文第二部分也將探討這種將不同特性的樣本合併對檢測Gompertz假設可能造成的影響。

所謂替代遷移是指遷移人口對長期處於更替生育水平以下的人口，因人口自然減少而產生的替代效用。北京、上海、天津已經完成了人口轉變，實現了低生育水平，遷移人口和人口年齡結構變化將對人口未來發展趨勢起主導作用。本文採用替代遷移研究方法，實證分析了三大城市在無遷移人口、保持峰值人口、維持峰值勞動年齡人口和潛在供養比最大值四種條件下的遷移人口的替代規模和替代效應，認為適度替代遷移人口是解決長期低生育水平人口問題的有效途徑。

Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin are experiencing below replacement fertility. Under such fertility trends, these cities will eventually face negative population growth rates. This paper applies the concept of “replacement migration” to examine how many migrants will be needed if these cities are to maintain their peak population size under a no migration situation, their peak working labor force, or their peak ratio of population aged 15-65 to that of 65 and over. The results seem to indicate that the migration volume under the scenarios of maintaining peak population size and peak working population size could provide reasonable and acceptable consequences. Furthermore, for cities experiencing below replacement fertility levels, the migration volume needed to maintain either peak population size or peak working population size varies positively with the size of the below replacement deficit.

Globalization and market reforms have significantly facilitated urbanization of the population of the People’s Republic of China. This study assesses the structural and spatial redistribution of urban population and Chinese cities since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. Prior to 1978 economic reforms, the system of cities created by the Maoist regime was dominated by large and extra-large cities because of the imperatives of optimal industrialization. For national defense considerations, most of the new cities were created in the central and western interior rather than the eastern coast. Market reforms and relaxation of state control over local development since the late 1970s have allowed a large number of cities to flourish on the basis of bottom-up rural transformative development. The intrusion of global market forces has helped re-consolidate the dominance of the east coast in China’s urban development. Although small cities and towns have absorbed large number of rural migrants, large and extra-large cities have remained the most efficient and productive economic centers for capital investment and production. China’s urban development over the past five decades has been a direct outcome of state articulation and reconfiguration against different political and economic contexts. A superimposed dual-track system of urban settlements integrating the Maoist legacy of large city dominance at the top with the rapidly expending component of small cities and towns at the bottom is quickly taking shape to characterize China’s urban development and urbanization.

經濟改革和全球化加速了中國大陸人口的城市化，本文評估中國大陸自1949年以來城市人口和城市體系之結構性和空間性重組。在1978年改革以前，中國的城市體系向以大都市所主導，出於國防的考慮，大多數新建城市集中在中部和西部地區。近年經濟改革和政治放權給予大量的小城市新的發展空間，與此同時，全球化的力量進一步鞏固東部地區在中國城市化的領導地位，無數小城市和城鎮接納了大量的鄉村剩餘人口，然而大都市依然是投資和生產最有效的經濟中心。中國過去50年的城市發展深為政府干預所左右，改革開發前大都市的主導地位與改革開發後小城市的迅猛發展互相結合和重疊，形成現時獨特的中國雙軌城市體系。