第二十九期人口學刊2004.12 出刊


本期目錄

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Education ; Household allocation ; Household consumption ; 教育 ; 家戶分配 ; 家戶消費
Abstract
The relation between economic development and the allocation of household resources for education among siblings has been widely discussed. The experience of Taiwan in the post-World War II period is particularly instructive because of rapid growth in economic opportunities, concomitant declines in fertility, and traditionally patriarchal familial organization.
Based on data from three island-wide surveys, we find that the growing economy coincided with improvements in education for children regardless of sex and that the gender gap in educational attainment declined.
中文摘要
「經濟發展」與「家戶教育資源在兄弟姊妹間之配置」的關係已經被廣泛探討。對此,台灣由於二次大戰之後經濟迅速成長,生育率降低,且仍保有傳統父系家庭組織,故特別適合作為研究範例。
根據三次全島調查,本文顯示經濟成長伴隨子女教育(不分性別)的改善,是導致男女教育成就差異縮減之主要因素。

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重大傷病 ; 推估 ; 人口變動要素合成方法 ; 全民健保 ; 敏感度分析 ; Critical illness and injury ; National health insurance ; Aging ; Projection
中文摘要
近年台灣地區民眾的平均壽命因醫療進步及環境改善等因素而大幅延長,主要死因轉變為中老年疾病或是慢性病,需要長期追蹤、治療,衍生的醫療費用也將隨人口老化而逐步上升,未來極有可能對我國全民健康保險的財務自主產生重大影響。本文主旨在於探討人口老化對重大傷病的影響,包括重大傷病患病人數及醫療費用的推估,並討論推估結果代表的意義。本文資料分析以全民健康保險重大傷病資料庫(1996 年至2001 年)為依據,使用精算原則估計重大傷病門診醫療金額(例如:每人平均就診次數、平均每次就診金額、罹患重大傷病機率),再配合內政部的人口資料與人口變動要素合成(cohort component)方法,推估未來重大傷病門診醫療費用。研究發現重大傷病的門診醫療費用將隨時間直線上升,與我國人口老化的趨勢頗為一致,醫療費用的上升必對我國全民健康保險的財務造成重大影響;另外,本文亦計算個人在一定期間之重大傷病收支平衡年繳保費,此部份除了可以應用在實支實付型的商業保險外,也可以應用於評估健保政策為一定期間不調整保費時,為維持其財務收支平衡之應收總保費。
Abstract
Recently, according to information from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance database, the medical expenditure on critical illness and injury has increased significantly because of an aging population. In this paper we are interested in investigating the impact of the aging population on the cost of critical illness and injury. In the first part of this research, we make use of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance database from 1996 to 2001 to estimate the number of people suffering critical illness and injury. In particular, we apply actuarial methods and the method of cohort component to estimate outpatient medical expenditure of the critical illness and injury. The estimation shows that the projection of medical expenditure due to critical illness and injury grows linearly with time. This effect is consistent with the trend of an increase of numbers in elderly. It implies that an aging population will lead to a significant financial impact on Taiwan’s national health insurance program. Furthermore, in the second part of this research, we construct a Markov model to calculate the expected premiums of critical illness and injury insurance under both social and commercial insurance systems. We then evaluate the required cost of critical illness and injuries in order to keep a financial balance for the Taiwan National Health Insurance program.

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結構流動 ; 交換流動 ; 準對稱模型 ; 不對稱參數 ; Structural mobility ; Circulation mobility ; Quasi-symmetry ; Skew-symmetry parameter
中文摘要
結構流動的概念一向在社會流動的文獻中佔據著核心的位置,近廿年來曾因參數估計的問題與困難而被質疑,甚至有學者主張放棄此一概念;所幸後續的研究發展出準對稱模型以估計傳統流動表中的結構流動參數,使結構流動的概念仍能維持其重要性,並為社會流動的概念累積了更多研究成果。本文嘗試解決結構流動參數的問題,首先充份討論結構流動與交換流動的概念及學界的研究成果,再以實際的經驗資料對模型的設定進行驗証。由台灣三個時點的資料來看,雖然使用準對稱模型來估計結構流動參數仍是有效的程序,卻不完全適用於經驗流動表;我們以準對稱模型為基礎,引入不對稱的小格參數,取得頗為接近經驗流動表的結果。配合台灣教育發展階段歷程的文獻考查,分析結果發現結構變遷主導了台灣地區的教育流動,而純粹交換型的教育流動則近似於一個固定但統計上顯著的對稱分布,顯示結構變遷是促成機會分布改變的最重要機制。
Abstract
Structural mobility is always the key issue in the literature on social mobility. In the past 20 years, doubts were raised about research on structural mobility but these have been relieved due to the progress in statistical methodology. Using data from the Taiwan Social Change Survey in 1984, 1990, and 1994, we investigate the association of educational development and educational mobility in an innovative way. Our results first show that the quasi-symmetry model fits rather poorly to the data. Then, given the operationalization of skew-symmetry parameters (using skew-symmetry models), we find that the flows from elementary school to junior high, and from junior high to senior high, have outpaced the overall structural transformation, in a fashion parallel to the process of educational development.

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單親戶 ; 貧窮 ; 貧窮比 ; 貧窮女性化 ; Feminization of poverty ; One-parent families ; Poverty ; Poverty ratio
中文摘要
本研究採用主計處「家庭收支調查」1991-2000 年資料,探討台灣地區「貧窮女性化」的現象及其特性。研究發現,貧戶中女性戶長家戶比例十年間大致呈現上升,且女性戶長家戶貧窮率每年也都比男性戶長家戶為高;但經由「貧窮比」分析,發現貧窮性別差異十年間頗為穩定。因此,可以說台灣地區「貧窮女性化」現象,只能算是方興未艾!在比較不同家戶組成的分析中,發現「單親戶」貧窮率不是最高的,其趨勢不僅沒有增加反而在1993 年之後有好轉的現象;值得注意的是,「有依賴子女」的女性戶長家戶具有穩定偏高的貧窮率,可是性別貧窮比也未呈現任何上升的趨勢。最後,根據多變項分析結果,在戶長年齡、戶長教育、依賴子女數等變項的控制下,女性戶長家戶相對於男性戶長家戶具有較高的機會落入貧窮,而「是否為單親」對貧窮的影響則不顯著,這種情形在「有依賴子女」的家戶當中,更為明顯。可以說,「成為單親」並非是台灣女性戶長家戶落入貧窮的主因,而是「有依賴子女」才具有更穩定的解釋力。
Abstract
The phenomenon of feminization of poverty has been widely discussed in US, mainly due to the increasing proportion of poor who were females, during 1960-1980. Along with the trend of urbanization and modernization, since 1990, Taiwan has begun to experience the increase in divorce rates and concomitantly the increase in number of one-parent families. Using data from the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (SFIE), 1991-2000 waves, conducted by DGBAS annually, the author intended to examine the hypothesis of feminization of poverty in terms of changes in proportion of poverty rate as well as poverty ratio. Instead of using individuals as analytical units, the author focused on comparing various types of household units and found the trend of increasing proportion of female headed households that were poor. However, no tangible trends were found either between families of male and female householders or among different family types, when poverty ratios were used for testing the feminization hypothesis. When the traits of householders were under controlled, unlike those found in the US and some Western countries, mother-only families in Taiwan were not significantly related to the likelihood of poverty, but the number of cohabiting children had positive effects on being poverty of households during 1990s.

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Mother ; Attitude in child-raising ; Child ; Health ; Ability ; 母親 ; 養育兒女之態度 ; 兒童 ; 健康 ; 能力
Abstract
This study investigates the links of maternal attitudes in childraising with their behaviors and investments related to children’s health and ability. The study uses data from an interview survey targeted at mothers with children aged four and held in central Taiwan in 2002; its measures for maternal attitudes in child-raising include the major maternal reason for raising children and maternal most-wanted characteristic for children. Maternal behaviors regarding child health which this study investigates are maternal patterns of using prenatal care, breastfeeding children, giving children nutritional supplements, and taking children to exercise. The investments in children’s ability refer to training courses for improving children’s intellectual capability, artistic skills and sporting talents. Results from multivariate analyses for this study show that maternal attitudes in child-raising substantially affect most of these maternal behaviors and investments regarding children’s health and ability.
中文摘要
本研究檢視「母親養育子女之態度」和她在有關子女健康方面的行為、有關子女能力方面的投資之間的關聯。研究資料來源為2002 年於中台灣針對一群四歲幼兒之母親所收集的調查資料。研究以「母親生育兒女的主要原因」以及「她最希望子女有的特質」做為母親養育子女之態度的衡量。本研究所檢視的「母親在有關子女健康方面之行為」是母親使用產前照護的模式、哺育母乳的行為,以及餵食子女營養補充品和帶子女運動的行為。「有關子女能力方面之投資」則指送子女去參加增進智力、藝術技能和運動能力之課程的行為。此研究多變量分析之研究結果顯示「母親養育子女之態度」確實影響了大多數被本研究檢視的「母親在有關子女健康方面之行為」和「母親有關子女能力方面之投資」。

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出生性別比 ; 性別選擇模式 ; Sex ratio at birth ; Sex-selective abortion
中文摘要
自1980 年代以來,中國的出生性別比就開始偏高,而且處在異乎尋常的持續升高狀態,2000 年已經達到了116.9。出生性別比不但表現為顯著的孩次差異,而且呈現了明顯的地域差異。產前性別鑑定和性別選擇性人工流產是出生性別比偏高的主因。而胎兒性別選擇則是文化、經濟、制度、技術等多種因素綜合作用的結果。有證據表明,人工流產或繼續生育與懷孕胎次、曾生子女性別顯著相關。在現有狀態下,想使出生性別比恢復正常是很難的工程。
Abstract
The sex ratio at birth in mainland China has risen continuously since 1980s and its level is relatively high compared with other societies. It displays not only parity-specific differences but also regional differences. Furthermore, the higher the birth-order, the higher the sex ratio at birth. Recently, Guangdong and Hainan Provinces show the highest sex ratios at birth. Sex-selective abortion is responsible for such high sex ratios at birth. Son preference is a result of many social, economic, cultural, and policy factors combined together, and under current circumstances it is relatively difficult to stop or reverse such a trend.