第三十三期人口學刊2006.12 出刊


本期目錄
Contents


研究論文

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教育擴張 ; 性別薪資差距 ; 一般婚配 ; 女高男低婚配 ; Educational expansion ; Sex differential earnings ; Conventional marriage ; Status-reversal marriage
中文摘要
「內婚」與「男高女低」是台灣婚姻配對的主要形式,但隨著兩性教育投入與所得能力差異越來越小,「男高女低」婚配模式的空間逐漸受到擠壓。擠壓後婚姻行為可以產生三種反應:一是未婚率提高,二是「內婚」的比例增加,三是「女高男低」的外婚模式成長。研究結果顯示未婚率的變化因為性別及教育程度的不同而不同,教育程度愈高的女性,未婚的比例就愈高,男性則相反。而從70 年代到90 年代間,教育程度「內婚」與「女高男低」配對的比例均有上升的趨勢,但「大學」似乎是「女高男低」擴張的頂點。當綜合考慮教育、年齡與收入三個變項時,「女高男低」配對模式之擴展只存在於教育程度單一面向上。對數線性模型分析則指出妻子的教育程度愈高,「女高男低」婚姻配對的機率就愈高,不僅在教育程度面向上如此,在年齡與收入面向上亦有相同的結果,但研究所教育程度的女性在90 年代以後有不同的發展方向。
Abstract
During the last quarter of the twentieth century, higher education in Taiwan expanded phenomenally, and equality among men and women advanced significantly. Meanwhile, women’s average earnings and labor force participation improved, substantially reducing the gender differences. As a result, the conventional pattern of assortive mating for women, i.e., homogamy and hypergamy, changed. Based on the results of the Surveys of Manpower in 1990 and 2000, we study the changes in nuptiality for men and women. A gender differentiation seems to have resulted in response to the elevation of women's socio-economic status. The proportion never married appears to increase among the less-educated men while it tends to increase among the bettereducated women. To document the changes in assortive mating, we examine the results of the Surveys of Marriage, Fertility and Employment of Women in 1990, 1993 and 2000. Profiles of education-earnings-age assortive mating of three marriage cohorts, those married in 1970-1979, 1980-1989, and 1990-2000 respectively, are generated and compared. The results indicate a significantdecrease in the proportion of educational hypergamy, with some increase in the proportion of educational homogamy and a large increase in the proportion of downward marriage pertaining to women. A glass ceiling on downward marriage appears to exist and results in an increased proportion of never married for women with a post-graduate education, however. Considering the education, earnings, and age aspects of assortive mating together, changes in assortive mating become negligible. It seems that downward marriage in one aspect tends to be compensated by hypergamy in another aspect. Among the three aspects of assortive mating, it appears the earnings hypergamy tends to be the most persistent, and the educational hypergamy the least binding.

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生育率 ; Lee-Carter ; 擴散模型 ; 交叉驗證 ; 電腦模擬 ; Fertility rate ; Lee-Carter model ; Diffusion model ; Cross validation ; Computer simulation
中文摘要
除了美國外,經濟較為發達的國家近年來總生育率絕大多數都在2.1 的人口替代水準之下,台灣地區在民國93 年的總生育率首次降至1.2 以下的歷史新低,民國94 年的嬰兒出生數進一步降至約20 萬人,預計又將創新紀錄,加速台灣地區的人口老化。由於台灣地區的生育率變化較大,筆者之前的研究發現其他各國的生育率模型不見得適用於台灣,本文希望能以系統式探討各國生育率,確定哪些生育率模型適用經濟較為發達的國家。本文引用台灣、日本(亞洲)、荷蘭(歐洲)、美國(美洲)等經濟發達國家的實證資料,加上電腦模擬與敏感度分析,評估包括Gamma、Lee-Carter、主成份分析(Principal Component Analysis)、單一年齡組個別估計法、擴散模型(Diffusion Model)等較為常用的模型,比較這些國家配適結果的異同。
實證分析發現台灣、日本、美國都是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型的總生育率最佳,荷蘭則是單一年齡組個別估計法;在年齡組生育率的預測方面,台灣、日本、荷蘭都是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型最好,美國則是以單一年齡組個別估計最好。電腦模擬的結果則以單一年齡組個別估計法最佳,個別配適擴散模型次之。
Abstract
Except in the U.S., the total fertility rates of developed countries have been smaller than the replacement level of 2.1. Without exception, the total fertility rates in Taiwan dropped to a historic low (1.2) in 2004 and are expected to be even smaller in 2006. In this study, we used the fertility data of four developed countries, Taiwan, Japan, the Netherlands and the USA (representing countries in Asia, Europe, and America), to fit the frequently used models (Gamma, Lee-Carter, Principal Component Analysis, Age- Group Fertility Rate, and Diffusion models) and determine which model has the best fit. We found that, for the total fertility rates, the best model in Taiwan, Japan, and the USA is our modified diffusion model, while in the Netherlands it is the age-group fertility rate model. For the age-specific fertility rates, the best model in Taiwan, Japan, and the Netherlands is the modified diffusion model, while in the USA it is the age-group fertility rate model.
In addition, we use computer simulation to check the relativestability and relative efficiency of these fertility models. The age-group fertility rate model and the modified diffusion model also outperform other models. In conclusion, we recommend the readers use these two models.

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Return migration ; Transnationalism ; Hybrid identity ; PRC Chinese migrants ; New Zealand ; 回歸移民 ; 跨國移民 ; 混合式身份 ; 中國大陸移民 ; 紐西蘭
Abstract
The China-born cohort among New Zealand's ethnic Chinese constitutes 35% of the total of over 100,000 ethnic Chinese in the most recent census of 2001. It is the single largest group, out-stripping the local born and totally overshadowing the immigrant Chinese groups born in other diasporic centers.
In recent years, immigrants from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have shown a strong tendency of return migration and transnationalism. This paper will explore the circulatory movements of this group, highlighting various social indicators as a pointer to their relative attachment to their sending country and host country respectively.
The paper uses the China-born specific data1 of the latest New Zealand census as background. Primary research data is derived from a two-part field study, first in New Zealand (the settlement country) and then in China (the country of origin). One hundred respondents, drawn from the snowballing sampling method, were interviewed in Auckland. It was found that while the immigrants maintained close links with China, few of them remitted money back. While community links are reasonably strong, few relied on fellow Chinese for their first job.
Two rounds of in-depth qualitative interviews were carried out in China on ten respondents who returned from New Zealand. Questions were asked to ascertain their motivation for returning, their experience of re-entry, and what their future intentions might be. This article will look particularly at the returnees’ sense of identity and affinity with both their countries of origin and adoption, and to find out about their self-perceived roles in an increasingly globalized world.
中文摘要
紐西蘭2001 年的人口普查顯示,該國的華人總人口已超過100,000,而中國大陸出生的華人占紐西蘭華人總數的35%。該華人群體超過了紐西蘭本地出生的華人人口數量,並且完全超越了世界上其他主要華人散居地的華人移民數量。
近年來,該華人群體顯示出強烈的回流移民和再度跨越國界傾向。本文將探究該華人群體的迴圈式的移民動向,並試圖探究其背後隱藏的對移民移出地和移入地的社會含義。
本文以紐西蘭最近一次(2001 年)人口普查有關中國大陸出生的華人移民資料為研究背景。主要資料則來自於兩部分的實地調查研究:在紐西蘭本地(移民移入地)和在中國大陸(移民移出地)進行的實地調查。使用滾雪球的取樣方式,一百名居住在奧克蘭地區的受訪個案接受了訪問。初步研究結果顯示在這些受訪的中國大陸移民當中,很多繼續維持著與中國大陸的聯繫,可是很少人會匯款回大陸。雖然該群體與華人社區聯繫甚為密切,卻很少有人依靠他們的華人同胞獲取在紐西蘭的第一份工作。
研究人員也在中國實地訪問了10 位由紐西蘭回流到中國的華人移民。他們被深入探訪了兩次。這些深入訪問目的是探知他們的回流動機,回流後的生活體驗,以及他們的未來目標打算。本研究將特別著重探究這群回流移民的歸屬感、自我身份認定,以及他們與移出地和移入地的親和關係。本研究志在查明當世界的全球化趨勢日益加劇時,這群華人移民的自我身份認知。

研究紀要

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貧窮 ; 貧窮指標 ; 貧窮女性化 ; Poverty ; Poverty indices ; Feminization of poverty
中文摘要
自Diana Pearce 提出「貧窮女性化」的概念後,近三十年來學術界累積許多貧窮女性化的討論。由於貧窮女性化一開始是描述貧窮女性比例偏高的現象,並無明確的操作型定義,因此對於貧窮女性化的實證研究,也產生許多不同的測量與討論方式。經數十年來的實證研究發現,貧窮女性化的定義中,只有「貧戶裡面女性戶長的組成比重有增加的情形」這個定義較能成立。本文以性別群體為分析焦點,利用行政院主計處家庭收支調查資料,分析1990 年至2003 年間台灣是否有貧窮女性化的現象?經過各種貧窮女性化的定義的分析討論,研究發現只有「貧戶裡面女性戶長的組成比重有增加的情形」的現象是明顯的,此發現與美國目前的研究結果一致。
Abstract
Ever since Diana Pearce proposed the concept of “Feminization of Poverty” approximately 30 years ago, academia has accumulated voluminous related discussions. However, because the concept was created to describe the phenomenon of an exceptionally high proportion of females in poverty, it did not provide a clear and verifiable definition. As a result, a wide range of measurement methods and discussions on positivistic research of the concept have thus proliferated. After decades of positivistic research on “Feminization of Poverty,” only one of its definitions, “the percentage of female householders in poverty has increased,” received empirical support. This paper, based on the data from the Household Income and Expenditure surveys by DGBAS of the Executive Yuan, tries to analyze whether the phenomena involved in “Feminization of Poverty” occurred in Taiwan between 1990 and 2003. After verifying all the definitions involved in “Feminization of Poverty,” this study has found only one phenomenon to be obvious: the percentage of female householders in poverty has increased. This finding is the same as the current research result in America.

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成功老化 ; 高齡學習者 ; 高齡化社會 ; Successful aging ; Elder learner ; Aging society
中文摘要
本研究旨在探討高齡學習者對於成功老化之看法,採問卷調查法,以成功老化量表蒐集資料。研究樣本共計451 位,包括居住在北、中、南、東各地區年滿55 歲的高齡學習者。經統計分析獲致三項結論:第一、成功老化包括六個層面,高齡學習者對於各層面之看法,認為健康自主層面最重要,家庭層面次之。第二、年齡、教育程度、自覺健康狀況、主要經濟來源,以及居住狀況等社會人口變項,會影響高齡學習者對於成功老化各層面重要程度之看法。第三、高齡學習者認為成功老化應具備的條件,以健康自主層面所占比率最高,其次為經濟保障層面。
根據研究結論,提出四項建議:第一、體認健康自主、經濟保障層面的重要性,提早進行妥善規劃。第二、在心理上對老化的適應過程抱持正向看法。第三、積極參與學習活動並主動從事社會活動。第四、強化敬老尊賢的家庭倫理與社會風氣。
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to explore the successful aging perspective of elder learners. The sample of the study consisted of 451 older adult learners. The instrument is a “successful aging questionnaire”. Statistical analysis yielded the following results. First, successful aging, is composed of six dimensions: elder learners regard the health dimension as the most important, and the family dimension the second. Second, the importance of the successful aging dimension is affected by age, education, health, economic status and residence of elder learners. Third, among the determinants of successful aging, the health dimension is foremost; the next is economic.
Based on the results, this research proposes the following suggestions: one should first recognize the importance of health and economics and engage in advanced planning; second, possess a positive attitude toward the aging process; third, participate positively in social and learning activities; fourth, promote a value of respecting older adults and family ethics.