Comparisons of migrants versus native populations have become increasingly important as a means of gaining insight into the factors affecting health and mortality levels and the relationship between them. Taiwan underwent a unique migration in 1949-50, as more than a million people, mostly young men, arrived from Mainland China following the Communist civil war victory. The Mainlanders were distinct from the original settlers in several ways: they represented different provinces in China, were better educated, and had distinct occupational profiles. Since 1950, Taiwan has experienced a rapid demographic transition and notable economic development, resulting in mortality decline. In this paper, we generate age- and cause-specific death rates circa 1990 by education and nativity to evaluate the relative importance of each factor. We also use longitudinal survey data to help interpret the differentials in terms of selection, risk factors, and other dynamics of health and mortality.

本文旨在探討大陸來臺人士與臺灣人生命過程的不同經驗與狀況是否造成不同的死亡率風險，並且檢視死亡率風險之差異是否存在，以及這些差異之基本原因。移民與本國居民的比較研究已成為釐清健康與死亡率及兩者關係之日益重要的方法。臺灣在1949-1950年間歷經一次特殊的、超過一百萬人的移民。其大多數為年輕男性，在國共戰爭後從大陸撤退來臺。這些大陸撤退來臺人士具有幾項特性，與臺灣原本的移民相比，他們從更多元的大陸省份前來，受過更高的教育，且有特定的職業樣貌。臺灣自1950年歷經劇烈的人口轉型和快速的經濟發展，死亡率也因而下降。本研究由教育和出生地，分析在1990年年齡與特定成因的死亡率，並釐清各項因素的相對重要性。我們也使用時間序列的死亡率資料和調查資料，以解釋選擇、風險因素、以及健康與死亡率等其他動態的差異性。

臺灣健保醫療費用一直面臨增漲的壓力，固然健保制度規劃之初已預見人口老化將造成費用上漲的結果，人口老化對於醫療費用之影響卻迄無完整的分析，對於人口老化帶來疾病擴張的第二波影響更是未有所聞。本文嘗試從人口老化與醫療費用的形式關係，也就是平均醫療費用的定義下手，解析人口老化對醫療費用的影響。我們將平均醫療費用分解為每日費用、就醫日數、就醫頻率、與人口組成四個組成項，發現人口老化確有穩定推動平均醫療費用向上增漲的作用，影響不大；每日費用略有起伏，呈下降趨勢；就醫頻率起伏較大，卻呈水平趨勢；就醫日數不斷上昇，對醫療費用的影響最大。簡而言之，存活為疾病的必要條件，人死了就不可能患病；在死亡率下降的過程中，中老年人死亡率之下降逐漸替換嬰幼與青年死亡率之下降，成為主要的成份，則死亡率持續下跌涵蘊著疾病盛行率上漲的結果；盛行率上漲的意義是平均每人存活在疾病狀態下的期間增長，就醫的實質需求增加，而醫療體系也能滿足這些需求，自然帶來醫療費用上漲的結果。

Based on the definition of the average NHI medical expenditures, this paper decomposes the average expenditures into four components; namely expenditures per day, days per outpatient visit or hospital stay, visits or stays per year per person, and age composition of the insured population. It is demonstrated that the expenditures per day component declined with small fluctuations during the 1996-2005 period, the visits per year component fluctuated horizontally, the age composition component steadily pushed the average expenditures upward, and the duration of visit was the component most important in bringing the average expenditures upward. A morbidity expansion, combined with the population aging, is proposed as a plausible explanation for the increase in medical expenditures.

以往人口遷徙研究大多著重於區域間人口遷徙與經濟變數關係分析，鮮少從總體面探討影響區域內部的遷徙行為。本研究認為一個地區的內部遷徙率愈高，代表潛在換屋家戶能較有效率透過居住環境改變來提升居住品質，滿足其住宅需求。本文從住宅市場供給、家戶住宅需求調整、以及房價負擔能力等不同角度，運用追蹤資料分析法(panel data analysismethod)，以臺灣22個縣市1982-2007年資料為實證範圍，探討影響不同縣市內部遷徙率差異的因素。實證結果顯示，住宅自有率對內部遷徙率有顯著負向影響，有偶率、使用執照面積、空屋率、以及房價所得比對內部遷徙率則有顯著正向影響，且住宅自有率與有偶率是影響內部遷徙率最主要的因素，使用執照面積、空屋率、以及房價所得比的影響力則相對較小。此外，各縣市不隨時間改變的區域特性對內部遷徙率亦有顯著的影響，都市化程度較高縣市及東部縣市的內部遷徙率明顯較其他縣市為高。由時間效果係數值可發現內部遷徙率亦明顯受到總體經濟、房地產市場景氣與政策的影響。

The existing literature on migration decisions relates economic variables mainly to inter-regional migration, but seldom to intra-region migration. This paper argues that a higher intra-region mobility rate may indicate the fact that households in the region can be more effective in raising the quality of living and inmeeting their needs bymoving to another house in the same region. Employing panel data covering 22 localities in Taiwan and the period of 1982-2007, this study analyzes determinants of intra-region migration based on a few different perspectives. Our empirical results suggest that intra-region mobility rate is negatively associated with homeownership rate, but positively associated with marriage rate, floor area of occupancy permit, vacancy rate, and the ratio of price to income. Both homeownership rate and marriage rate are among key determinants. We find the individual fixed effects in urbanized regions and the eastern region are statistically higher than ones in other regions. Moreover, the significant time-fixed effects suggest that the intra-region mobility rate is influenced by macro-economy and housing market cycles, as well as housing policies.

人口轉型導致生育率下降的原因分別有「社經結構調適過程」與「（創新）傳播擴散過程」兩種解釋途徑，前者認為生育率的下降是社會邁向現代化過程中對於結構轉變的調適結果，強調社經結構對於行為者的生育態度及決策的影響，而後者則認為社會網絡與人際互動等因素，形塑大眾減少或延後生育的觀念，以及對避孕知識與方法的認識並採納，是促使生育率普遍下降的主要原因。本研究透過空間迴歸模型，以臺灣358個鄉鎮為研究範圍，同時考慮社經結構，以及空間傳播擴散因素，檢驗社經結構、族群以及鄰近效應對生育率的空間變異可能造成的影響。綜合而論，從1980、1990、2001三個觀測年度的迴歸分析結果發現，社經結構始終維持在百分之五十的解釋力，族群與鄰近效應的解釋力則有增加的趨勢，尤其是鄰近效應的解釋力增加尤其明顯。基本上，鄰近效應有補強功能，提高模型的解釋力，但不影響原有變數的解釋力，證實的確有鄰近效應存在，間接支持傳播擴散理論，使社經結構調適理論在解釋生育率上更為完整。

In past studies, there are two theories explaining the process of decline in fertility. The first is the socioeconomic adjustment theory, which indicates that change in fertility is related to motivational forces stemming from changes in socioeconomic conditions; the second is the innovation diffusion theory, which admits the importance of motivational forces as well, but argues that social networks and interpersonal connections, rather than socioeconomic factors, are the reasons for making people accept contraception. In this paper, by using the methods of spatial econometrics, we consider both the factors of socioeconomic structure and spatial diffusion to explain the decline in fertility rates in Taiwan across 358 townships and within three years, 1980, 1990 and 2001. The spatial lag dependent variable, representing neighborhood effects, is used to verify the application of the innovation diffusion theory. The findings suggest that socioeconomic structure factors could explain about half of the variance in fertility rates; in addition, ethnic factors are significant, showing that some cultural reasons played an important role in the process leading to a low fertility rate. Finally, the existence of neighborhood effects in our regression models implies that the innovation diffusion theory has been verified, and its influence has been increasing with time.