本文以國道5號高速公路或「雪山隧道」宣布動工事件為檢視對象，針對此觀測區域內多數產官學者認為將有大量人口會遷移至宜蘭，與形成V型遷徙行為之理由。本文以質性量化混合方法做檢析，首先援引當時國內外區域人口遷徙之經驗，為此型遷徙行為做先期概念模圖建置。依據此建置完竣的關係架構，接著採以配適的指數平滑公式，以反應動工宣告之後所產生的人類適應性預期行為；質言之，將針對已建置V型遷徙行為，做合宜的平滑調整程序。由本文檢析的結果發現，目前蘭陽地區的實際人口，未見先期所推演的強迴流人口數，雪隧效應的達成率僅約八成而已。顯然宜北地區的人口遷徙動向，與各區的人口流動經驗不符，此有「滯後」條件約制之L型區域人口成長型態，與北宜地區人流較有「壓力與協調」之長學習過程有關。

The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the difference between the expected and realized migration flow after the Shea-San tunnel's opening on national highway 5. This paper firstly supplements the cross-region assessment of the domestic type V population movement with the related foreign relocation experiences. A precedent for the type V conceptual frameworks is reassessed as another mixed type U construct in embeddedness with the weighted data of net migration based on exponential smoothing estimation. Our quantitative and smoothing results afford the expected outcome of the type V move to improve the unmeasured state. Finally, the realized type L relocation behavior amended by the current data is offered to reexamine the above mixed-method approaches, aiming at reaction to the stress of contingent events and the move for sluggish adjustment.

臺灣人口已轉變至低出生率、低死亡率水準，符合「人口轉型」（demographic transition）理論的發展，同時，人口遷徙發展也有轉變。Zelinsky（1971）曾整合與界定經濟發展、現代化、生命率和遷徙之關係，發展成「遷移轉型」（mobility transition）假設。熊瑞梅（1987）、邊瑞芬（1991）和Chen（1991）都認為臺灣人口能符合假設發展，指出1980年代是轉型的第三階段，只是「人口轉型」和「遷移轉型」無法密切對應。爾後臺灣區域人口遷移的發展又是如何？由於Zelinsky（1971）之論點只是觀察歸納的結果，我們改以Jones（2005）的概念探討臺灣人口是否符合假設發展。首先，調整邊瑞芬（1991）的作法，透過集群分析法將所有縣市劃分成六組區域，計算檢證1980年、1992年、2002年和2007年人口遷移狀況是否吻合Jones（2005）概念。結果發現，臺灣於1990年代初期進展至轉型第四階段，同時，「人口轉型」和「遷移轉型」也可對應發展；然而，自2000年開始，遷徙歷程未如Zelinsky（1971）和Jones（2005）概念發展，主因是臺灣人口遷徙方向仍是北部為主，社會經濟發展相對進步的縣市也集中在北部地區，故能持續吸引人口移入，人口增加又帶動社會經濟發展，在社會、經濟和遷徙相互影響下，除了臺北市之外，新興之桃園縣、基隆市和傳統的新北市都持續崛起，未來臺灣人口將難均衡分布。

The population in Taiwan has already undergone a demographic transition, entering a period with a low birth rate and low death rate, while population migration patterns have also been changing at the same time. Zelinsky (1971) integrated and defined the relationship of economic development, modernization, vital transition, and migration, and arrived at a model of migration known as ”mobility transition.” Hsung (1987), Bain (1991), and Chen (1991) indicate that the higher the economic development level, the higher the in-migration rate, and they believe that the socioeconomic development and the migration pattern of the population of Taiwan corresponds to that proposed in the Zelinsky model, stating that the 80s was the third stage ”late transitional society;” however, they also find that the development of ”demographic transition” and ”mobility transition” are not closely parallel in Taiwan. Will the development of population migration in Taiwan keep on following Zelinsky's idea? Since the viewpoints of Zelinsky (1971) were just the conclusion based on his observation, we used Jones' idea (2005) instead to discuss whether the population in Taiwan corresponds to the ”mobility transition” model of development or not. First of all, the study method of Bain (1991) was adjusted, and cluster analysis was used to divide all cities and counties into six regions. The population migration situations of 1980, 1992, 2002, and 2007 were calculated and examined for agreement with Jones' idea (2005). The results showed that while both the natural increase rate and the territory migration rate keep on decreasing, Taiwan developed into the fourth stage of transition at the beginning of the 90s. At the same time, ”demographic transition” and ”mobility transition” also corresponded to the development. However, the actual migration progress does not follow the development proposed by Zelinsky (1971) and Jones (2005), mainly because the major migration direction of Taiwan's population is still toward the northern part, as the cities and counties with rather advanced social and economic development are also concentrated in Northern Taiwan; thus, the population is continuously motivated to migrate to Northern Taiwan. The increase of population also promotes social and economic development. Through the mutual influence of society, economy, and migration, Taoyuan County, Keelung City, and New Taipei City also continue to develop in addition to Taipei City; thus, the population of Taiwan is unlikely to be evenly distributed in the future.

臺灣人口結構漸趨老化，由於老年人使用較多醫療等社會資源，人口老化勢必牽動政府政策與資源分配，然而臺灣各縣市的人口老化速度不一（陳政勳、余清祥2010），因此有必要針對各地方特性發展適當的小區域人口推估方法。小區域推估面臨的問題可歸納為四個方向：「資料品質」、「地區人數」、「資料年數」與「推估年數」，資料品質有賴資料庫與制度的建立，而後三者則與過去資料與推估未來的變異程度有關。本文考量在上述後三個問題的影響下，探討修勻（graduation）相關方法是否可提高小區域死亡率推估的穩定性。本文使用屬於隨機推估的區塊拔靴法（block bootstrap），以電腦模擬評估推估結果，因為小區域人口數較少，本文也使用Whittaker及標準死亡比（standard mortality ratio）等修勻方法，降低因為地區人數較少引起的震盪。另外，小區域推估通常可用的資料時間較短，未來推估結果的震盪也較大，本文針對需要過去幾年資料，以及未來可推估年數等兩項因素進行研究，希冀結果可提供臺灣各地方政府的推估參考。除了電腦模擬外，本文也以實證分析檢驗修勻的成效，將修勻套用至臺南縣、臺東縣等縣市層級的死亡率。研究發現，修勻方法可降低小區域死亡率推估的震盪，如有過去十五年資料可獲得較可信的推估結果，而未來推估年數盡量不超過二十年；相對而言，與人口數比較，小區域與大區域的死亡率差異對修勻的影響較為有限。

The population size plays a very important role in statistical estimation, and it is difficult to derive a reliable estimate for small areas. The estimation is even more difficult if the geographic and social attributes within the small areas vary widely. However, although population aging is a common phenomenon globally, the problem is not the same for different countries. The aim of this study is to explore the mortality projection for small areas, with the consideration of the small area's distinguishing characteristics. In addition to data quality, the difficulties for small area population and mortality projection are threefold: population size, number of base years, and projection horizon. Smoothing methods can be applied to improve the stability and accuracy of small area estimation. In this study, the block bootstrap and smoothing methods are combined to project the mortality of small areas in Taiwan, using the cohort component method. We found that the smoothing methods can reduce the fluctuation of estimates and projections in general, and the improvement is especially noticeable for areas with smaller population sizes. To obtain a reliable mortality projection for small areas, we suggest using at least fifteen years of historical data for projection and a projection horizon of not more than twenty years. Also, the population size has a bigger influence than the discrepancy of mortality rates between small and large areas.

孝道的「認同」和「實踐」分屬於兩種不同的表現層次，前者為「心理」層次，後者則屬於「行為」層次。本研究使用「華人家庭動態資料庫」（Panel Study of Family Dynamics, PSFD）的兩代配對資料，以實證的角度檢視臺灣社會中，親、子兩代對於「婚後同住」以及「奉養父母」之孝道觀念是否存在認同差異，並觀察兩代的孝道認同度是否會深刻影響到兩代同住的實踐。我們發現，子代不論在「同住觀念」或是「奉養觀念」上的認同度均比親代來得高，因此並不支持「傳統孝道觀念逐漸消失」的論點。另一方面，考慮父母在「同住決策」中可能扮演的角色，我們分別應用「單變數probit模型」及「部分可觀察資訊之雙變數probit模型」進行比較分析；估計結果發現，子代對「婚後同住」孝道的認同度確實會影響到其與父母同住的意願。

Identification and implementation of filial piety differ from each other, as the former is a psychological issue and the latter is a behavioral one. This study examines whether a higher level of identification with filial piety concepts by both generations significantly increases the propensity toward coresidence using PSFD (Panel Study of Family Dynamics) data. Considering that elderly parents may participate in the co-residence decision, we adopt not only a conventional univariate probit model but also a bivariate probit model with partial observability to explain the nuclearization of the family structure in modern Taiwan. Our empirical results show that filial piety is not diminishing in Taiwan's society, and that the strength of filial norms has a positive impact on adult sons' propensity to live with their parents.

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