由於男、女勞動力先天上即存在有勞動特質的差異，且不同職位間，技術層級亦高低不同，使得男、女勞動力在不同工作職缺中，並無法完全移動，因此在評估WTO 架構下對我國所造成的就業結構調整的衝擊時，實有必要將勞動異質化的特徵，納入模型考量。本文整合多國與單國動態一般均衡分析體系，將勞動力區分為男、女性及專技或非專技人員，進行多部門（multi-sectoral）異質勞動需求預測，並同時探討隨著入會自由化承諾的逐年履行，對台灣男、女性勞動需求之衝擊。模擬結果顯示，由於加入WTO後台灣服務業發展益形加速，而一、二級產業相形萎縮，使得非體力性操作之女性勞動力取得就業競爭上之相對優勢，2002-2006年女性勞動需求擴張的程度（累計增5萬9千人，平均年增率1.2%），較男性勞動需求擴張程度（增3萬4千人，平均年增率0.5%）為多。而隨著低階技術之比較不利益產業的出走，不論男、女性，非專技人員的勞動需求成長幅度均低於專技人員需求增幅。

Taiwan has been admitted into World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002. Changes in both industrial structure and employment structure are inevitable. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of Taiwan's WTO accession on female-male labor demand. The method adopted in this paper is a two-step approach in the context of the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The major finding from our quantitative assessment is that due to fast expansion in services sectors female labor demand increases dramatically with an annual rate of 1.2% during 2002-2006. In contrast, male labor demand is projected to increase with an annual rate of only 0.5% during the same period. The relocation of low-skilled and less competitive industries to foreign countries will lower the growth rate of labor demand for male, female as well as non-technical workers. For the younger people seeking employment opportunities, job-training programs should be carried out to help them transfer to the services sectors.

隨著醫療科技與經濟的進步，產生死亡率的下降，使得老年人口不斷增加，本文將研究人口老化的趨勢，利用台灣地區的生命表中各年齡死亡率改變情形，分析對出生平均壽命改變影響的貢獻度。分析中可見0-1 歲的貢獻度最大，而50-89 歲的貢獻度超過50%以上。由於台灣地區人口的老化相當快速，本文將比較台灣地區與平均壽命相當長的日本與瑞典兩國各年齡死亡率改變情形對出生平均壽命改變貢獻度的差異，並依各國的死亡率預測模型來計算世代生命表的終身年金值，分析並比較死亡率下降趨勢對年金訂價的影響。

The elderly population has been increasing rapidly in recent years due to the improvement in medical care, fertility decline and economic development. In this paper, the trends of aging were discussed. We used Taiwan complete life tables to analyze the contribution of the increment of life expectancy of each age between two consecutive life tables. The results showed that ages 0 to 1 had the largest contribution, and more than 50% of the increment of mean life expectancy was contributed by ages 50 to 89. The aging trend is significant in Taiwan. Therefore, in this paper, we compared the mortality improvement trends between Taiwan and two supper-aged countries, Japan and Sweden. We also compared the differences in the contribution of improvement in mortality of different age groups on life expectancy at age 0 between two consecutive life tables. Finally, we used the estimated mortality improvement models to evaluate the annuity pricing under cohort life table consideration.

貧窮測量是針對各種家庭、人口、地區等等進行經濟福祉的比較，其目的是將焦點集中在社會處境較差的人群身上，重視他們的經濟福祉。另外，從公共政策的觀點來看，政策與制度的施行需要評估成果，而貧窮測量的主要目的是讓我們評估政策與制度的效果，去確認人群的最基本經濟需求是否達到滿足。
近二十年來官方公佈的官訂貧窮率均不及百分之一，許多學者認為過於嚴苛。本文嘗試模擬各種預算標準法，尋求合宜的貧窮門檻，並討論對於貧窮人口組成的影響。經過本文的模擬設定，貧民率約在3.37%至4.86%之間，其貧戶率約在4.39%至5.76%之間。進一步分析發現，女性家戶長離婚或寡居者、女性家戶長屬於六十歲以上老人家戶者、女性家戶長屬於單身家戶者、戶長年齡二十歲以下與六十歲以上小戶量（單身或雙人）家戶者，在各項貧窮定義下較易落入貧窮。

Poverty measurements are ways to assess the relative economic well-being of different household types, subpopulations and geographic regions of a society. The main objective of this study is to seek ways to correct potential biases against the welfare benefit of the disadvantaged groups. In addition, it is very crucial to assess the effectiveness of the public policies and the relevant institutions. In the meantime, it is also necessary to investigate whether the objectives of public policies have been achieved. The poverty measurements formulated in this study will enable us to assess the effectiveness of public policies and institutions and help us determine whether the basic economic needs are met of various households, subpopulations and regions.
In the past twenty years, official poverty rates were all below one percentage point. A substantial body of poverty research considered the poverty thresholds too stringent. The present paper is an attempt to use various estimates to simulate more appropriate poverty thresholds and to explore their effects on the composition of poverty population. In this study, the results of various simulated poverty thresholds show that individual level of poverty rates falls somewhere between 3.37% and 4.86%; while household level of poverty rates lies around 4.39% and 5.76%. Further analyses indicate that female-headed households, of which householders are divorced/windowed or sixty years older; and that households headed by persons less than twenty years or over sixty years or single person, are more likely to fall below poverty thresholds under all measures.

近年來台灣地區由於婦女受高等教育比例、就業率的增加等因素，使得育齡婦女的生育時間延後、生育總胎次減少，因此總生育率也逐年降低，在2001年時降至1.4的歷史新低，加速台灣地區人口老化的腳步。台灣地區婦女生育率的下降，在各年齡層有不同的趨勢，這種各年齡層生育率變化不同步的現象，使得許多常見的生育率模型（如Gamma及Lee-Carter模型）套用於台灣地區的生育率時產生不小的誤差。為尋求更精確的台灣地區生育率模型，除了考量直接預測年齡別生育率的各種模型外，本文也嘗試以世代（Cohort）的觀點預測未來的生育率，包含世代生育率模型，以及研究胎次別生育率與年齡別生育率之間的關係，再套用國外近年提出的擴散（Diffusion）模型。本文的實證研究以西元1949至1996年（或1975至1996年，對胎次別資料而言）的資料為基礎，1997至2001年資料為檢測樣本，藉由交叉驗證比較上述方法的優劣；此外，本文也考慮中國習俗對十二生肖的好惡，將龍虎年的效應列入預測方法的修正。研究發現世代模型可能因資料分析及估計的程序較為複雜，預測誤差反而高於單一年齡組個別估計法這類模型較為簡單的方法。

The total fertility rates in Taiwan area have been falling rapidly since 1960's, which reached a record low 1.4 in 2001, and trigger the population aging in Taiwan area. Possible causes attributing to this rapid decrease include more opportunities of higher education and employment for the female, which generally are treated as two of the main reasons for the delay of childbearing. However, the falling of fertility rates vary quite a lot in different age groups, and thus most well-known fertility models (such as Gamma and Lee-Carter models) fail to produce accurate predictions.
In this paper, we shall extend the study of Huang and Yue (2002) and continue looking for acceptable fertility projection models. The models considered in this study include, in addition to traditional models for age-specific fertility rates, models for cohort fertility rate (CFR), age-and-parity specific birth rate, and diffusion. Data from 1949 to 1996 (or 1975 to 1996 for age-and-parity specific birth rate) are used as a pilot for verifying the model which has the best fit for data gathered from 1997 to 2001. We also consider the effect of Chinese zodiac to adjust the prediction values. We find that simpler models, such as individual group estimation, have smaller prediction errors comparing the complicated models such as the CFR model.